| Registro completo |
| Provedor de dados: |
AgEcon
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| País: |
United States
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| Título: |
Quantile Regression Methods of Estimating Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts
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| Autores: |
Isengildina-Massa, Olga
Irwin, Scott H.
Good, Darrel L.
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| Data: |
2008-05-05
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| Ano: |
2008
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| Palavras-chave: |
Demand and Price Analysis
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| Resumo: |
This paper explores the use of quantile regression for estimation of empirical confidence limits for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices. Quantile regressions for corn, soybean, and wheat forecast errors over 1980/81 through 2006/07 were specified as a function of forecast lead time. Estimated coefficients were used to calculate forecast intervals for 2007/08. The quantile regression approach to calculating forecast intervals was evaluated based on out-of-sample performance. The accuracy of the empirical confidence intervals was not statistically different from the target level about 87% of the time prior to harvest and 91% of the time after harvest.
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| Tipo: |
Conference Paper or Presentation
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| Idioma: |
Inglês
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| Identificador: |
30101
http://purl.umn.edu/6409
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| Relação: |
American Agricultural Economics Association>2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida
Selected Paper
469246
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| Formato: |
35
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