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Provedor de dados:  5
País:  France
Título:  Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
Autores:  Lotze, Heike K.
Tittensor, Derek P.
Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea
Eddy, Tyler D.
Cheung, William W. L.
Galbraith, Eric D.
Barange, Manuel
Barrier, Nicolas
Bianchi, Daniele
Blanchard, Julia L
Bopp, Laurent
Buchner, Matthias
Bulman, Catherine M.
Carozza, David A.
Christensen, Villy
Coll, Marta
Dunne, John P.
Fulton, Elizabeth A.
Jennings, Simon
Jones, Miranda C.
Mackinson, Steve
Maury, Olivier
Niiranen, Susa
Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo
Roy, Tilla
Fernandes, Jose A.
Schewe, Jacob
Shin, Yunne-jai
Silva, Tiago A. M.
Steenbeek, Jeroen
Stock, Charles A.
Verley, Philippe
Volkholz, Jan
Walker, Nicola D.
Worm, Boris
Data:  2019-06
Ano:  2019
Palavras-chave:  Climate change impacts
Marine food webs
Global ecosystem modeling
Model intercomparison
Resumo:  While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
Tipo:  Text
Idioma:  Inglês

Editor:  Natl Acad Sciences
Relação:  info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/689518/EU//MERCES
Formato:  application/pdf
Fonte:  Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (0027-8424) (Natl Acad Sciences), 2019-06 , Vol. 116 , N. 26 , P. 12907-12912
Direitos:  info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

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