| Registro completo |
| Provedor de dados: |
Rev. Bras. Frutic.
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| País: |
Brazil
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| Título: |
CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY
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| Autores: |
SIMÕES,DANILO
CABRAL,ANTÔNIO CARLOS
OLIVEIRA,PAULO ANDRÉ DE
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| Data: |
2015-12-01
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| Ano: |
2015
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| Palavras-chave: |
Risk analysis
Citrus sinensis Osbeck
Agricultural economics
Monte Carlo
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| Resumo: |
ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.
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| Tipo: |
Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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| Idioma: |
Inglês
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| Identificador: |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-29452015000400859
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| Editor: |
Sociedade Brasileira de Fruticultura
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| Relação: |
10.1590/0100-2945-257/14
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| Formato: |
text/html
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| Fonte: |
Revista Brasileira de Fruticultura v.37 n.4 2015
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| Direitos: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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