SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W.; Swenson, Andrew L..

Net farm income for nearly all representative farms in 2015 is projected to be higher than in 2005. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices and yields are projected to increase slightly faster than costs, which will increase net farm income. Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly in all regions. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.

The Affect of Animal Gender on Fed Cattle Producer Marketing Behavior

Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Farm Management.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23563

Fausti, Scott W.; Qasmi, Bashir A.; Diersen, Matthew A.; Li, Jing; Lange, Brent.

Weekly grid market share by volume for slaughter steers is compared to slaughter heifers. Summary statistics indicate average grid market share for steers (42%) is 27% higher than slaughter heifers (33%). The literature indicates that pregnancy and increased dark cutter incidence associated with heifers relative to steers creates additional financial risk when heifers are sold on a grid. Econometric analysis suggests grid market share is less sensitive to change in market conditions for heifers relative to steers. The empirical evidence is consistent with the supposition that marketing heifers is riskier than marketing steers on a grid. Thus sellers need stronger economic incentives to market heifers on a grid relative to steers.

Economic Analysis of Incentives for Foreign Direct Investment in Beef Systems in Argentina and Uruguay

Palavras-chave: Grid pricing; Fed cattle; Animal gender; Risk; Livestock Production/Industries; Q00.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98541

Thor, Eric, III; Bailey, DeeVon; Silvac, Alejandro R.; Vickner, Steven S..

The European Union's (EU) ban of hormone-treated beef products in 1989 has virtually eliminated beef exports to the EU from countries where cattle are routinely implanted with growth hormones. This study examined whether or not foreign direct investment in beef systems in Argentina and Uruguay would provide a profitable method for investors who want to export beef to the EU. The results indicate that while investment in these systems is potentially profitable, government interventions designed to keep domestic beef prices low inject considerable risk into the investment decision.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Investment in beef systems; South America; Risk; Cointegration; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8167

Does On-Farm Quality Assurance Pay? A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Grainsafe Program

Karaca, Umit; Alexander, Corinne E.; Maier, Dirk E..

Since the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops, the commodity grain system has been under pressure to segregate GM and non-GM crops. Starting at the level of the grain handler, members of the grain supply chain have successfully used quality assurance and identity preservation programs to segregate non GM crops. Producers delivering high-value, identity-preserved crops have become interested in implementing these quality management systems at the farm level. We conduct a cost-benefit analysis that shows that quality assurance program may be profitable for producers, depending on their farm size and equipment management strategy.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Risk; Cost-benefit analysis; Identity preservation; On-farm quality assurance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6057

2009 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2009-2018

Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W.; Swenson, Andrew L..

Net farm income for all representative farms in 2018 is projected to be lower than in 2008. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices are expected to fall from current levels however the final level is unknown. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates after 2009. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms except for the low profit farm will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase to about 0.50.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Risk; Agribusiness.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54246

Subsurface Drip Irrigation Versus Center-Pivot Sprinkler for Applying Swine Effluent to Corn

Carreira, Rita I.; Stoecker, Arthur L.; Epplin, Francis M.; Hattey, Jeffory A.; Kizer, Michael A..

A risk-averse irrigated corn producer would be better off choosing the more expensive subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) over center-pivot sprinkler (CPS), given limited aquifer life and swine effluent and urea fertilization. A stochastic optimization using EPIC data maximized expected utility of 100 years' worth of net revenues for a quarter section. Phosphorus accumulation was more likely with the CPS than with the SDI but soil nitrogen was constant under both systems. SDI conserves more water than CPS per acre but depletes the aquifer faster because a greater area is irrigated. These results were invariant in the sensitivity analysis.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Aquifer depletion; Center-pivot sprinkler irrigation; Certainty equivalent; Corn irrigation; Mathematical programming; Risk; Stochastic optimization; Subsurface drip irrigation; Crop Production/Industries; C61; C65; Q12; Q30; Q53.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43783

A dynamic dual model under state-contingent production uncertainty

Serra, Teresa; Stefanou, Spiro E.; Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M..

In this paper we assess how production costs and capital accumulation patterns in agriculture have evolved over time, by paying special attention to the influence of risk. A dynamic state-contingent cost minimization approach is applied to assess production decisions in US agriculture over the last century. Results suggest the relevance of allowing for the stochastic nature of the production function which permits to capture both the differences in the costs of producing under different states of nature, the differences in the evolution of these costs over time, as well as the differential impacts of different states of nature on investment decisions.

Dynamic Econometric Models of Manitoba Crop Production and Hypothetical Production Impacts for CAIS

Palavras-chave: Risk; State-contingent; Dynamic model; Investment decisions; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; D21.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61353

Coyle, Barry T.; Wei, Ran; Rude, James.

This study analyzes the impact of the Canadian Agriculture Income Stabilization (CAIS)program. The study begins with a specification of dynamic crop production that decomposes static short run crop acreage allocation decisions and dynamic crop yield affects. The modelling framework accommodates risk aversion, price uncertainty, and applies recent aggregation theory to aggregate weather data. Using this framework an analytical model of the impacts of CAIS on crop production is developed. Hypothetical impacts of are simulated using an aggregate Manitoba data set. The results show that CAIS has a substantial impact on the shadow prices of both inputs and outputs. These shadow price effects resulted in a 4 percent increase in long run wheat and barley yields...

An Equilibrium Approach to the Theory of Futures Markets

Palavras-chave: Canada; CAIS; Risk; Crop; Production; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46630

Berck, Peter; Cecchetti, Stephen G..

Financial considerations of public inventory holdings in developing countries

Palavras-chave: Future trading; Investments; Risk.

Ano: 1981

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42847

Adelman, Irma; Berck, Peter.

Stewardship and Risk: An Empirically Grounded Theory of Organic Fish Farming in Scotland

Palavras-chave: Consumption; Investments; Public finance; Risk.

Ano: 1991

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43739

Georgakopoulos, Georgios; Ciancanelli, Penelope; Coulson, Andrea; Kaldis, Panayiotis.

It has long been assumed ownership gives farmers incentives to act as stewards for the land. On this basis, quasi-property rights are granted to fish farmers to encourage them to manage risks to the aquatic environment. This paper offers an empirically grounded theorization of fish farmers’ perspectives on these issues. Data were gathered via field research with Scottish salmon farmers who had switched from conventional to organic fish farmers’ risk management strategies offer little support for the view that property rights automatically create incentives for stewardship of the marine environment.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Risk; Organic; Fish farming; Grounded theory; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101053

The Economic Feasibility of Energy Sugar Beet Biofuel Production in Central North Dakota

Maung, Thein A.; Gustafson, Cole R..

This study examines the financial feasibility of producing ethanol biofuel from sugar beets in central North Dakota. Under the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007, biofuel from sugar beets uniquely qualifies as an “advanced biofuel”. EISA mandates production of 15 billion gallons of advanced biofuels annually by 2022. A stochastic simulation financial model was calibrated with irrigated sugar beet data from central North Dakota to determine economic feasibility and risks of production for a 10MGY (million gallon per year) and 20MGY ethanol plant. Study results indicate that feedstock costs, which include sugar beets and beet molasses, account for more than 70% of total production expenses. The estimated breakeven ethanol price for the...

Farm Level Analysis of Risk, and Risk Management Strategies and Policies: Evidence from German Crop Farms

Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Sugar beets; Molasses; Net Present Value; Risk; Agricultural Finance; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61235

Anton, Jesus; Kimura, Shingo.

This paper describes farmer’s exposures to risks at the individual farm level and develops a model representing the decisions of an individual risk averse farmer facing variability in both prices and yields. A set of stylised risk market instruments is represented. The model is calibrated using farm level data from Germany. Monte-Carlo simulations of the random variables are run, and the corresponding optimal responses are obtained. The main focus of this paper is the interactions between government payments and the farmers’ use of risk market instruments in terms of the potential crowding out of such instruments and impacts on farm return and welfare. Unlike other studies this paper models farming response to payments in terms of production and the use...

An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition

Palavras-chave: Risk; Welfare; Crop yield insurance; Forward contracting and Single Farm Payment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51729

Upadhyay, Bharat Mani; Young, Douglas L..

Roy's safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated.

Farm Risk Management Between Normal Business Risk and Climatic/Market Shocks

Palavras-chave: Investment risk; Monte Carlo simulation; No-till; Rent-purchase; Risk; Safety-first; Technology adoption; Transition strategy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12958

Cordier, Jean.

Farm risk management for income stabilization is on-going issue. An applied work has been performed to measure farm risk using a stochastic model. Risk management tools, with symmetric as well as asymmetric impacts, are then tested and compared through ad hoc statistics. Normal farm business risk can be efficiently managed using a precautionary saving provision. Farm revenue insurance is found as the most efficient asymmetric tool for dealing with climatic and market shocks. The linkage between these complementary tools can be adjusted upon market environment.

A STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE SUGAR BEET- AND NAVY BEAN- BASED CROP ROTATIONS IN MICHIGAN

Palavras-chave: Comparative; Performance; Risk; Management; Tools.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48105

Gebremedhin, Berhanu; Schwab, Gerald; Harwood, Richard R.; Christenson, Donald; Bricker, Calvin.

Sugar beets (Beta vulgaris L.) and navy beans (Phaseoulus vulgaris L.) have been important target crops in the crop rotation systems of many Michigan growers, particularly in the Saginaw Valley and the Thumb region. The recent decline in sugar beet yields combined with the erratic navy bean yields have led to concern about the optimal crop rotation for the East Central region in Michigan. Risk is an important consideration in a farmer's choice of cropping systems. This study uses 20 years of experimental data from the Michigan State University Saginaw Valley Research Farm to determine the risk efficiency of alternative sugar beet- and navy bean- based crop rotations that included corn (Zea mays L.), oats (Avena sativa L.), and alfalfa (Medicago sativa...

Viabilidade econômica da irrigação da cultura do café na região de Viçosa - MG

Palavras-chave: Crop rotation; Cropping system; Risk; Stochastic dominance analysis; First-degree stochastic dominance; Second-degree stochastic dominance.; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11509

Aredes, Alan Figueiredo de; Santos, Maurinho Luiz dos; Rufino, Jose Luiz dos Santos; Reis, Bricio dos Santos.

The objective of this paper is analyze the economic viability of implanting different technological alternatives of irrigation in the culture of coffee in the municipal district of Viçosa-MG. Technical and financial parameters of coffee cultivation were analyzed in five different technological alternatives: (A) - no-irrigated production with low productivity, (B) - no-irrigated production with high productivity, (C) - irrigated production by leaking, (D) - irrigated production by leaking fertilizing, (E) - irrigated production by mesh. For each one of there alternatives, Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, the Rate Interns of Return Modified and the Payback Period, being made the risk simulations were performed using the Latin Hypercube method. Results...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Coffee; Return; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54597

Drought Risk and Drought Response in Morocco: Vulnerability, Risk Perceptions and Drought Coping Among Rainfed Cereal Farmers

Lybbert, Travis J.; Kusunose, Yoko; Magnan, Nicholas; Fadlaoui, Abdelaziz.

Trust and Risk in Business Networks: Towards a Due Diligence for Electronic Commerce

Palavras-chave: Drought; Coping; Vulnerability; Risk; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49367

Fritz, Melanie.

This paper develops a due diligence for electronic transactions with new partners in business networks with complex goods such as food products to enable the use of e-commerce potentials in first time transactions. The e-commerce due diligence is a means to reduce perceived risks and uncertainties for businesses and create trust and confidence in the electronic transaction with appropriate information. The paper presents a conceptual framework for the due diligence integrating the principles of transaction decision making and the four phases of a transaction process. The operationalization of the framework assigns trust signals and control elements to the four process phases to be communicated during the process.

Supply Response of Crops in the Southeast

Palavras-chave: Trust; Risk; Electronic commerce; First time transactions; Due diligence; Food networks; Agribusiness; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Marketing.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7753

Smith, Rachel K.; Duffy, Patricia A.; Novak, James L.; Wilson, Norbert L.W..

An econometric model was used to estimate the supply response of corn, cotton, and soybeans in the Southeast United States. The analysis includes state-level data from 1991-2005 for Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia, taking into account the effect of wealth, revenue risk, and farm program provisions. Estimated elasticities were low and many parameters were not statistically significant.