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| Registros recuperados: 121 | |
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| Urcola, Hernan A.; Schnitkey, Gary D.; Irwin, Scott H.; Sherrick, Bruce J.. |
| This study uses corn yield data from McLean County, Illinois to test whether farmer skill influences yields. This analysis is conducted by performing persistency tests on unadjusted, soil productivity adjusted (PA), and productivity and input intensity adjusted (PIA) yields. Correlation analysis and winner/loser tables indicate that unadjusted, PA, and PIA yields exhibit persistency across time. PIA yields exhibiting persistency is consistent with farmer skill influencing yield. Hence, our results support the hypothesis that farmer skill influences yields. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19991 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip; Good, Darrel L.. |
| Three attributes of futures contract behavior important for market performanceliquidity, volatility, and convergenceare investigated before and after the 2005 increase in speculative position limits for corn, soybean, and wheat contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade. The analysis of liquidity and market depth reveals a sharp increase in open interest for corn, soybeans and wheat beginning in late 2005. The increase in position limits likely accommodated the increase in speculative interest in corn, soybean and wheat futures, but some of the increase would have occurred without the increase as new market participants received hedge exemptions. The analysis of price volatility revealed no large change in measures of volatility after the change in... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Corn; Futures contract; Performance; Soybeans; Speculation; Wheat; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9951 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Gomez, Jennifer K.. |
| The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary summary of the results of a survey designed to help answer the questions about subscriber use of market advisory services. Importantly, this research is a cooperative partnership between the University of Illinois and the Data Transmission Network. The survey participants are commercial producers of major grain, oilseed and fiber crops, representing important agricultural areas of the US. The survey has three broad objectives, including 1) how US producers perceive the riskiness of various aspects of farming; 2) how US producers manage farm business risk, and 3) how US producers select and use market advisory services. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14772 |
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| Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| A Bayesian hierarchical model was employed to estimate individual expected pricing performance for market advisory programs in corn and soybeans. Performance is defined as the difference between the price/revenue obtained by following the program's marketing recommendations and the average price/revenue offered by the market along the marketing window. The estimates obtained from this model are weighted averages of traditional separate and pooled estimates. Based on the sample employed, the most reasonable individual estimates for expected pricing performance imply a substantial shrinkage towards pooled values. The Bayesian estimates for expected pricing performance range from ¢9/bu to ¢9/bu for corn, from ¢11/bu to ¢17/bu for soybeans and $0.4/acre to... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19469 |
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| Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to identify the appropriate market benchmark price to use to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services that are included in the annual AgMAS pricing performance evaluations. Five desirable properties of market benchmark prices are identified. Three potential specifications of the market benchmark price are considered: the average price received by Illinois farmers, the harvest cash price, and the average cash price over a two-year crop marketing window. The average cash price meets all of the desired properties, except that it would not be easily implementable by producers. It can be shown, though, that the price realized via a more manageable strategy of "spreading" sales during the marketing... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Advisory services; Evaluating the pricing performance; Market benchmark price; C8; C0; D4; D8; L1; M3; Q0; Z0; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14783 |
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| Urcola, Hernan A.; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| As agricultural options markets grow, perceptions of overpricing persist among market participants. This study tests the efficiency of corn, soybean, and wheat options by computing trading returns. Several call and put option strategies yield significant profits, but returns are influenced by movements in the futures price, and straddle trading does not lead to significant returns. The combined analysis of put, call, and straddle returns indicates that significant returns can be attributed to drifts in the underlying futures, and that the corn, soybean, and wheat options markets are efficient. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural options; Mispricing perceptions; Trading returns; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105525 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| To date, there is only fragmented and anecdotal information about the impact of the recommendations of market advisory services (MAS) on producers' decision-making. A conceptual framework is developed in which, among others, producers' risk attitudes and risk perceptions; producers' perceptions about MAS performance and delivery; and match between the MAS and the producers' marketing philosophy are hypothesized to influence the impact of MAS on producers' marketing decisions. Data from 656 U.S. producers were used and the impact of MAS on producers' marketing decisions was tested using an ordered probit model. The empirical results reveal that not only the perceived MAS performance, but also the way in which MAS recommendations are delivered, and the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20389 |
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| Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private services. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors across the agencies were highly correlated. Relative accuracy varied by crop and month. In corn, USDA 's forecasts ranked as most accurate in all periods except in August during recent times, and improved more markedly as harvest progressed. In soybeans, forecast errors were very similar with the private agencies ranking as most accurate in August and September and making largest relative improvements in August during recent times. The USDA provided the most accurate October and November forecasts. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19068 |
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| Frank, Julieta; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on announcements’ rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Using the market’s best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures. Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term (long-term) price changes. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: HPR; New information; Rationality; Two-limit tobit; USDA announcements; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; C24; Q13. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45046 |
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| Sanders, Dwight R.; Irwin, Scott H.; Merrin, Robert P.. |
| Long-only commodity index funds have been blamed by other futures market participants for inflating commodity prices, increasing market volatility, and distorting historical price relationships. Much of this criticism is leveled without any formal empirical support or even cursory data analyses. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment’s of Traders report. In this research, we make an initial assessment of the size and activity of index funds in traditional agricultural futures markets. The results suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have stabilized as a percent of total open interest. Speculative... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Commitment’s of Traders; Index funds; Commodity futures markets; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37615 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1997 corn and soybean crops. This conclusion is somewhat sensitive to the type of performance test and market benchmark considered. The predictability results provide little... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14789 |
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| Cabrini, Silvina M.; Stark, Brian G.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This study analyzes the potential risk reduction gains from naive diversification (equal-weighting) among market advisory services for corn and soybeans. The total possible decrease in risk through naive diversification is small, mainly because advisory prices are highly correlated on average. Moreover, since marginal risk reduction benefits decrease rapidly with size, and the cost of holding the portfolios increases linearly due to services' subscription fees, it is optimal to limit portfolio size to a few advisory programs. Based on certainty equivalent measures and two representative risk aversion levels, preferred portfolio sizes are between one and three services. Overall, there does not appear to be strong justification for farmers adopting... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19013 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip. |
| This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Forecast; Futures; Models; Prices; Time-series; Vector autoregression; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37620 |
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| Park, Cheol-Ho; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| This paper investigates the profitability of technical trading rules in US futures markets over the 1985-2004 period. To account for data snooping biases, we evaluate statistical significance of performance across technical trading rules using White's Bootstrap Reality Check test and Hansen's Superior Predictive Ability test. These methods directly quantify the effect of data snooping by testing the performance of the best rule in the context of the full universe of technical trading rules. Results show that the best rules generate statistically significant economic profits only for two of 17 futures contracts traded in the US. This evidence indicates that technical trading rules generally have not been profitable in US futures markets after correcting... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19039 |
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| Registros recuperados: 121 | |
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