SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Zhuang, Renan; Koo, Won W..

We use a multi-region GTAP model to study the implications of a global sugar free trade agreement on the U.S. sugar industry. In general, the sugar net importing countries such as the former Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States would reduce sugar production and increase their net imports from the world market. By contrast, the sugar net exporting countries such as Australia, Brazil, and Thailand would increase their sugar production and increase their net exports. Under a scenario where import tariffs and export subsidies are completely eliminated, U.S. sugar production would decrease by 2.8%. This is in contrast to some of the previous studies, which argued that the U.S. sugar production would increase slightly annually. U.S. import prices would...

The Role of the Economy Structure in the U.S. - China Bilateral Trade Deficit

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21486

Tokovenko, Oleksiy; Koo, Won W..

This study investigates the effect of the economy structure on the U.S. - China bilateral trade deficit as alternative to the influence of the exchange rate fluctuation. The revealed comparative advantage indices are proposed as the measure of the relative structural differences between two countries due to factor endowments and technology. A Bayesian Stochastic Search Variable Selection method is applied to the U.S. - China annual trade data for 57 commodity groups at the SITC 2-digit industry aggregation level to obtain empirical variable inclusion probabilities. Based on the data, we found no conclusive evidence against the hypothesis of the short-run effect of either of the explanatory factors, while the long-run influence is revealed to be...

U.S. PROCESSED FOOD EXPORTS AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104018

Mattson, Jeremy W.; Koo, Won W..

U.S. exports of processed food products and sales by foreign affiliates of U.S. companies in the industry have been growing rapidly. Canada and Mexico are the United States' two major trading partners in the Western Hemisphere, while small quantities of processed food products are exported to a number of other countries in the hemisphere. U.S. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), like exports, is also largest in Canada and Mexico, but there is also significant FDI in the processed food industry in South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina. U.S. FDI, measured as sales by foreign affiliates, is significantly greater than U.S. processed food exports. The relationship between FDI and trade is subject to much debate and analysis. An econometric...

2004 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS, 2004-2013

Palavras-chave: Processed foods; Foreign direct investment; Western Hemisphere; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23547

Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W.; Swenson, Andrew L..

Net farm income for all representative farms in 2013 will be lower than in 2004. Low-profit farms, which comprise 25% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Costs are projected to increase faster than yields, which will pressure net farm income downward. Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly in all regions. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms will increase slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit and small-size farms are higher than those for large and high-profit farms.

HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE IN THE U.S. FOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRY

Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratios; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Farm Management.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23528

Sun, Changyou; Koo, Won W..

Intra-industry trade (IIT) in the U.S. food processing industry is evaluated in this study. The IIT index is disentangled into horizontal and vertical components and evaluated at 6-digit HTS product levels. The degree of IIT varies across different trading partners and sub-industries, and, for the U.S. food processing industry as a whole, it has been steadily increasing since 1989. Most of the IIT in the U.S. food processing industry is vertical in nature. However, horizontal IIT has been increasing faster than vertical IIT. The determinants of horizontal and vertical IIT are examined in a multiple-industry and multiple-country model. Industry characteristics show more significant effects on IIT than country characteristics. Product differentiation, market...

2007 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Industries, 2006-2016

Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23629

Koo, Won W.; Taylor, Richard D..

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2006-2016 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain profitable over the next ten years mainly because higher world oil prices have increased the conversion of sugar into ethanol by Brazil, while other exporting countries have increased their production in response to those higher prices. Brazil is the largest exporter of sugar, and it is expected that the rate of increase in Brazilian sugar exports may be reduced due to high oil prices. World demand for sugar is expected...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Sugar; Production; Exports; Consumption; Ending stocks; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7632

UNITED STATES AND CANADIAN AGRICULTURAL HERBICIDE COSTS: IMPACTS ON NORTH DAKOTA FARMERS

Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W..

Pesticides have become a major farm production cost over the past 25 years. There are price and label differences for agricultural herbicides between the United States and Canada. Trade names are different in some cases, label restrictions vary, and weights and measures are different. The reasons for the price differences are unclear. Whether they are due to increased costs in labeling requirements, different levels of competition and use, or market segmentation is not determined. The largest total impact of using lower priced Canadian herbicide is on HRSW, followed by durum and corn. The largest per acre impact is for canola, corn, and HRSW. Herbicides with the largest total impact are Puma, followed by Roundup and Fargo. Net farm income for large,...

1997 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS 1996-2005

Palavras-chave: Agricultural Herbicide Costs; Trade armonization; North Dakota Representative Farm; Land Value; Pesticides; Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23634

Koo, Won W.; Duncan, Marvin R.; Taylor, Richard D..

Net farm income for all representative farms will be lower in 2003 than in 1995-96, but net farm income will be level throughout the 1997-2005 period. Cropland prices are projected to fall in all regions of North Dakota after peaking in 1996-97. Cash rental rates are projected to follow cropland prices. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms, although rising across the forecast period, will not reach levels that imperil credit worthiness. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low profit and small size farms are higher than those for large and high profit farms.

The J-Curve Phenomenon: Myth or Reality?

Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Debt-to-asset ratio; Cropland prices; Land rental rates; Farm operating expenses; Capitalization rate; Farm Management.

Ano: 1997

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23424

Baek, Jungho; Mulik, Kranti; Koo, Won W..

This study examines the J-curve phenomenon for the U.S. agricultural trade and compares the effect on agricultural trade relative to the U.S. non-agricultural trade. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to estimate bilateral trade data between the U.S. and her three major trading partners ¦¡ Japan, Canada and Mexico. We find little evidence of the J-curve for the U.S. agricultural trade with Japan, Canada and Mexico. For the non-agricultural trade, on the other hand, the behavior of the U.S. trade with industrialized economies such as Japan and Canada follows the J-curve, but not with developing economies such as Mexico.

HOW DIFFERENTLY AGRICULTURAL AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS RESPOND TO EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATION?

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21382

Kim, MinKyoung; Koo, Won W..

This study divides the U.S. economy into the agricultural and industrial sectors and compares the degree of the involvement of exchange rates in each sector without specifying the rigid assumption of either exogeneity or endogeneity of exchange rates. Both short- and long-run impacts of shocks in the exchange rate are found to be significant. However, the effect of an exchange rate shock on the agricultural sector is larger than the industrial sector. This study fulfills a fundamental question about the role of exchange rate between the two sectors. The exchange rate is exogenous in the agricultural sector, while being endogenous in the industrial sector.

AGRICULTURAL COMPETITIVENESS AND WORLD TRADE LIBERALIZATION: IMPLICATIONS OF THE WTO AND FTAA, MAY 29-30, 2003 (CONFERENCE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY)

Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19635

Mattson, Jeremy W.; Koo, Won W..

Executive summary for May 29-30, 2003, conference organized by the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies (NDSU) and Farm Foundation.

OUTLOOK OF THE WORLD RICE INDUSTRY UNDER ALTERNATIVE TRADE LIBERALIZATION POLICIES IN JAPAN AND KOREA

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23070

Koo, Won W.; Taylor, Richard D..

This report evaluates the world rice industry for the 1998-2010 period by using the World Rice Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, the weather, and technological change. This report evaluates three scenarios: the base scenario, the partial trade liberalization scenario in Japan and South Korea, and the full trade liberalization scenario. The partial trade liberalization scenario includes a partial liberalization of rice imports in Japan and South Korea from the year completing the minimum market access commitments under the UR agreement to 2010. The full trade liberalization scenario includes a full liberalization of rice imports in Japan and South Korea from...

Econometric Analysis of the U.S. Cheese Industry: Production, Consumption, Prices, Marketing

Palavras-chave: Japonica Rice; Indica Rice; Trade Liberalization; Production; Consumption; Imports; Exports; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23402

Koo, Won W.; Loma, Eduardo; Erlandson, Gordon W..

OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY OF US/CANADA WHEAT POOL: A GAME THEORY ANALYSIS

Palavras-chave: Marketing; Agribusiness.

Ano: 1982

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23120

Nganje, William E.; Koo, Won W.; Johnson, D. Demcey; Park, Joon J.; Taylor, Richard D..

This paper develops a game theory optimization model of market efficiency and derives conditions under which voluntary pooling is sustained for US/Canada durum and hard red spring wheat producers. Analysis reveals that United States and Canadian farmers can increase farm returns with efficiency gains from pooling and by internalizing benefits from grain blending and logistics. The model is used to analyze diverse factors affecting the sustainability of such a pool.

THE EFFECTS OF US/CANADA TRADE ON PRODUCTION COSTS AND PRODUCTIVITY

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36439

Lambert, David K.; Schuck, Eric C.; Jin, Hyun Joung; Koo, Won W..

Increased international trade can affect production costs by promoting changing input and output prices and by promoting technological innovation. Econometric results suggest increasing state exports of agricultural products and rising US/Canada agricultural trade has shifted production costs from labor and material inputs towards capital and land and that trade-induced technological improvements have driven down production costs in the Great Plains.

An Economic Analysis of Corn-based Ethanol Production

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22008

Koo, Won W.; Taylor, Richard D..

A global multi-commodity simulation model was developed to estimate the impact of changes in ethanol production on the U.S. corn industry. Increased ethanol production under the Energy Acts of 2005 and 2007 resulted in a significant increase in the price of corn. However, for corn-based ethanol production, the break-even price of corn is approximately $4.52 per bushel with a federal subsidy of $0.51 per gallon of pure ethanol and $2.50 gasoline. With a corn price of $4.52, the economically desirable ethanol production is approximately 11 billion gallons. In order to produce 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol and to maintain the price of corn at $4.52 per bushel, supply of corn in the U.S. should be increased substantially through increases in corn...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Price impacts; Supply; Demand; Econometric simulation; HFCS; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6201

ASYMMETRIC PATTERN OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA

Kim, MinKyoung; Cho, Guedae; Koo, Won W..

This study proposes alternative rationales to explain an asymmetric intra-industry trade pattern between the United States and Canada after the free trade agreement became effective. Using time-series data, a gravity equation is developed which enables us to examine the impacts of relative market size, exchange rates, and transportation costs on bilateral trade. It is found that these three effects have to be taken together in order to explain the asymmetric intra-industry trade pattern. Exchange rate impacts on bilateral trade are found to the most significant, indicating that U.S. dollar appreciation causes a more asymmetric trade pattern for agricultural goods than for large-scale manufacturing goods.

WORLD FEED BARLEY TRADE UNDER ALTERNATIVE TRADE POLICY SCENARIOS

Palavras-chave: Border effects; Exchange rates; Gravity equation; Intra-industry trade; National product differentiation model; Product differentiation model; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23625

Mao, Weining; Koo, Won W.; Krause, Mark A..

A spatial equilibrium model based on a quadratic programming algorithm was developed to analyze world feed barley trade and international competition among major exporters (Australia, Canada, the European Union, and the United States) under the current and alternative trade policy scenarios. The U.S. Export Enhancement Program (EEP) plays an important role to maintain U.S. market share in importing countries. Eliminating Canadian rail subsidy decreases Canadian offshore exports, but greatly increases its exports to the United States. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) increases feed barley trade within North America, but has little impact on world trade flows for feed barley. Canada benefits most under the Uruguay Round Agreement of GATT...

Recent Changes in Chinese and India's Agriculture and Implications on Global Trade of Agricultural Commodities

Palavras-chave: Feed barley; International grain trade; Trade policy; Spatial equilibrium model; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 1996

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23272

Tangen, Alyssa; Koo, Won W.; Taylor, Richard D..

The objective of this study is to evaluate the changes in import and export demand in China and India on the United States and global agriculture in 2020. A spatial equilibrium model is developed to optimize production and trade in China, India, and other major importing and exporting regions in the world. This research focuses on four primary crops: wheat, corn, rice and soybeans. In the model, China and India are divided into 31 and 14 regions, respectively. The model also includes five exporting countries and ten importing countries/regions. The results indicate that India will be able to stay largely self-sufficient in 2020 and China will increase its soybean and corn imports to meet rising domestic demand. The research also gives perspectives on...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99345

AGRICULTURAL COMPETITIVENESS AND CHANGE UNDER GLOBALIZATION

Mattson, Jeremy W.; Koo, Won W..

Dr. Won W. Koo, Professor and Director of the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, and Dr. G. Edward Schuh, Professor and Director of the Freeman Center for International Economic Policy, University of Minnesota, organized a conference, Agricultural Competitiveness and Change under Globalization, held October 11-12, 2004, at the Ramada Plaza Suites and Conference Center in Fargo, North Dakota. Speakers included Senators Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, leaders from agribusinesses and farm groups, government officials, and top economists from universities across the country. The conference focused on the effects of globalization on U.S. agriculture, with attention given to trade negotiations and the...