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Registros recuperados: 69
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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on China's Grain Sector and International Trade AgEcon
Hansen, James M.; Tuan, Francis C.; Somwaru, Agapi.
This study analyzes the potential impact of climate change on China's corn, wheat, and rice, domestic agricultural markets, and the international markets out to the year 2050. The study provides a brief background and reviews research literature of climate change effects on China's crop yields. The paper presents the potential impact of climate change on China's yields and attempts to quantify the domestic and global market impacts. The analysis has four scenarios, which assumes two future levels of greenhouse gas emissions with the effects of CO2 fertilization and no CO2 fertilization. A 27-country commodity partial equilibrium simulation mathematical programming model (PEATSim) is used for this analysis. Results indicate under CO2 fertilization, which...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: China; Trade; Climate change; GHG; CO2 fertilization; Rice; Wheat; Corn; Dynamic partial equilibrium simulation mathematical model.; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103768
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Modeling Biofuels Expansion in a Changing Global Environment AgEcon
Peters, May; Somwaru, Agapi; Hansen, James M.; Seeley, Ralph; Dirkse, Steve.
This paper examines the impact of declining energy prices on biofuels production and use and its implications to agricultural commodity markets. It uses PEATSim, a dynamic partial equilibrium, multi-commodity, multi-country global trade model of the agriculture sector to analyze the interaction between biofuel, crop and livestock sectors. The ability of countries to achieve their energy goals will be affected by future direction of petroleum prices. A 50 percent decline in petroleum prices (absent of mandates) would result in rapid decline in biofuel use worldwide accompanied by a decline in feedstock and biofuel prices. About a 21 percent decline in U.S. cost of ethanol production is needed to make ethanol competitive with gasoline and to offset the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; PEATSim; Dynamic partial equilibrium model; Energy prices; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51732
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Farm Level Effects of Counter-Cyclical Payments AgEcon
Makki, Shiva S.; Johnson, D. Demcey; Somwaru, Agapi.
The paper analyzes the role of counter-cyclical (CC) payments in stabilizing farm incomes and investigates whether the payments could affect farmers’ planting decisions. Our analysis, based on representative farmer approach, finds that CC payments provide a relatively modest enhancement to farm welfare. However, much depends on market price conditions, which change from year to year, and on base acreage (which is determined by planting history). The paper finds little evidence of interaction between revenue insurance and CC payments.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19508
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An Anatomy of Moroccan Agricultural Trade AgEcon
Li, NaiChia; Roe, Terry L.; Diao, Xinshen; Somwaru, Agapi.
Morocco is engaged in a number of economic reforms to better position the country's integration into world markets. Her agricultural sector is particularly important as its trade, GDP, and employment share are relatively large. We analyze Morocco's agricultural trade growth trends over the past 40 years (1962 - 2004) using SITC 4-digit bilateral agricultural trade data. The data are analyzed using the trend and cycles decomposition (TCD) approach and measurement of trade growth at the intensive and extensive margin. We find a high concentration of agriculture trade in both commodities and trading partners. Morocco has also lost export shares in EU to other EU countries in her top exporting commodities. Another finding suggests that agricultural export...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9834
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DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF U.S. FARM COMMODITY PROGRAMS: ACCOUNTING FOR FARM AND NON-FARM HOUSEHOLDS AgEcon
Hanson, Kenneth; Somwaru, Agapi.
Using a highly disaggregated U.S. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, we analyze the distributional impacts from the commodity programs governed by the 2002 Farm Act on U.S. farm and non-farm households. The farm household impacts occur through program effects on household income, farm sector output and commodity prices. Non-farm household impacts occur through taxes and the cost of food.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21944
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Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis AgEcon
Harwood, Joy L.; Heifner, Richard G.; Coble, Keith H.; Perry, Janet E.; Somwaru, Agapi.
The risks confronted by grain and cotton farmers are of particular interest, given the changing role of the Government after passage of the 1996 Farm Act. With the shift toward less government intervention in the post-1996 Farm Act environment, a more sophisticated understanding of risk and risk management is important to help producers make better decisions in risky situations and to assist policymakers in assessing the effectiveness of different types of risk protection tools. In response, this report provides a rigorous, yet accessible, description of risk and risk management tools and strategies at the farm level. It also provides never-before-published data on farmers' assessments of the risks they face, their use of alternative risk management...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Diversification; Futures contracts; Leasing; Leveraging; Liquidity; Livestock insurance; Marketing contracts; Options contracts; Production contracts; Revenue insurance; Risk; Vertical integration; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34081
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CHINA'S EMPLOYMENT AND RURAL LABOR MIGRATION AgEcon
Somwaru, Agapi; Diao, Xinshen; Gale, H. Frederick, Jr.; Tuan, Francis C..
This study examines the rural labor market in China based on the country's first national agricultural census. The analysis highlights distinct differences of employment by age, gender, educational level, size of the household, and size of land holdings. We use a generalized polytomous logits (GPL) framework to analyze the patterns of rural labor employment, capture the dynamic trends of the rural labor force, and gauge rural migration. The estimation results, based on more than 4 million records of rural persons, indicate that the land size followed by the education level and age are the main factors affecting the chances of rural labor force by employment categories.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Labor and Human Capital.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20459
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Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices AgEcon
Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.; Reeder, John; Somwaru, Agapi.
Advanced methods that combine directed acyclic graphs with Bernanke structural vector autoregression models are applied to a monthly system of three U.S. soy-based markets: for soybeans upstream and for the two soybean co-products soy meal and soy oil further downstream. Analyses of the impulse-response function and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market-elasticity parameters that drive these markets and updated policy-relevant information on how these monthly markets run and dynamically interact. Results characterize impacts on the three U.S. soy-based markets of increases in U.S. prices of soy meal and soybeans.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/27559
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Dynamic Gains and Losses from Trade Reform: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of the United States and MERCOSUR AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Somwaru, Agapi.
An intertemporal general equilibrium model of the United States and MERCOSUR is created to analyze the dynamic adjustments in both regions' commodity and capital markets after trade liberalization. Simulation results show that tariff reductions initiated by MERCOSUR have small positive effects on the U.S. production, trade, consumption and investment, and stimulates MERCOSUR's growth, and improves its current account. If tariffs are eliminated by both regions, both regions are better off from points of intertemporal social welfare, international trade, domestic investment, and growth. Agriculture benefits more from trade reform, which implies that ruralagricultural sector might have been a victim of trade protection policies.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7473
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A GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE REFORM IN WTO MEMBER COUNTRIES AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Somwaru, Agapi; Roe, Terry L..
The effect on production, trade and well-being from the granting of market access, removing export subsidies, and eliminating trade-distorting forms of direct support to farmers in WTO member countries is analyzed from a world-wide general equilibrium perspective using the most recently available data. The results suggest that removing trade barriers, subsidies and support will cause aggregate world prices of agricultural commodities to rise by over 11 percent relative to an index of all other prices. Agricultural support and protection in the developed countries is found to be the major cause of low agricultural prices, and implicitly, a tax on net agricultural exporters in developing countries. Livestock product prices are likely to increase the most...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12984
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WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF GROWTH IN REGIONAL TRADE: TRADE LIBERALIZATION OR RTA'S? THE CASE OF AGRICULTURE AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi.
This paper delves into the debate on the proliferation of regional trade arrangements by focusing on bilateral agricultural trade data over the 1962-1995 period for countries that currently are members of NAFTA, Mercosur, the EU and APEC. Agricultural is chosen because it has historically been protected by developed and dis-protected by developing nations, while in the case of the EU, its Common Agricultural Policy was the major policy jointly managed and funded by member countries. We suggest that the literature has tended to focus on factors explaining the level of trade, and neglected factors affecting growth in trade. While neighborhood characteristics affect neighborhood trade, they also appear to affect the policy regimes of neighboring countries....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International trade; Regional trade arrangements; Agricultural trade; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14605
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Structural Change and Agricultural Protection: Costs of Korean Agricultural Policy, 1975 and 1990 AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Dyck, John H.; Skully, David W.; Somwaru, Agapi; Lee, Chinkook.
The economic development of South Korea is often considered a model for developing countries. We use 1975 and 1990 data in a general equilibrium framework with a highly disaggregated sector specification to evaluate the opportunity cost of its agricultural protection. We show that although agriculture's share of the gross domestic product (GDP) declined between 1975 and 1990, the cost of agricultural protection, as measured by the loss in GDP, did not fall. The larger gap between domestic and world prices for the protected sectors exacerbated the distortions in resource allocation. Simulated removal of 1990 agricultural border protection reduced the share of agricultural GDP to the level actually observed in 1996, demonstrating how protection can impede...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: South Korea; Food policy; Agricultural development; Computable general equilibrium; Protectionism; Trade liberalization; Rural development; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33921
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Consumer Attitudes Toward Biotech Foods in China AgEcon
Lin, William W.; Somwaru, Agapi; Tuan, Francis C.; Huang, Jikun; Bai, Junfei.
Based on a large-scale survey in 11 cities, this study employs probit and logit models to estimate the effects of various explanatory variables on the likelihood of biotech food acceptance in China. Analyses focus on biotech soybean oil, input- and output-trait biotech rice, and livestock products fed with biotech corn.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20359
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GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL REFORM AND U.S. AGRICULTURAL ADJUSTMENT CAPACITY AgEcon
Hanson, Kenneth; Burfisher, Mary E.; Hopkins, Jeffrey W.; Somwaru, Agapi.
This paper focuses on U.S. agriculture response to policy reform. A growing body of empirical literature describes the potential aggregate gains for the U.S. markets if global agricultural tariffs and subsidies can be further reduced (USDA, 2001; World Bank, GEP 2002; Tokarick, 2003). These gains are based on an aggregation of expected responses at the micro-level, by firms and households, to changing market conditions. Some of them will be “"gainers"” whose current economic activities and assets will benefit from the new opportunities presented by policy reform. Some will be “"losers"” who are adversely affected by the reduction or loss of subsidies or import protection.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20348
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IMPACT OF THE MFA PHASE-OUT ON THE WORLD ECONOMY AN INTERTEMPORAL, GLOBALGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AgEcon
Diao, Xinshen; Somwaru, Agapi.
This study focuses on the possible impact of the MFA phase-out on the world economy. Starting from analyzing trends in world textile and apparel trade (T&A), the study found that the developing countries were a growing factor in world T&A trade in recent decades. Moreover, using trade data from 91 countries over 37 years, the empirically investigate of the study indicates a strong positive relationship between trade in textile and apparel and the standard of living. However, about 50 percent of industrial countries’ markets are not available for developing countries and intra-EU trade still accounts for half of total EU imports of T&A products. A more open and freer market in the industrial countries is an important condition for developing...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16263
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Multilateral or Regional Agreement: The Case of Mediterranean Non-EU Countries AgEcon
Mattas, Konstadinos; Tsakiridou, Efthimia; Somwaru, Agapi.
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are at a crossroad regarding potential trade reforms. The EU is not only the world's largest market for the region's agricultural products, but also remains the prime outlet for these Mediterranean countries' exports. An applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of various trade reform options in the region. Results suggest that the region might benefit most under special provisions for developing countries. Under global trade reform, MENA preferences with EU might be eroded, with EU Mediterranean countries like Greece benefit the most with global trade reform.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25627
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BIOTECHNOLOGY IN AGRICULTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR FARM-LEVEL RISK MANAGEMENT AgEcon
Makki, Shiva S.; Somwaru, Agapi; Harwood, Joy L..
This study examines the risks associated with adoption of biotech crops and discusses their implications for risk management at the farm level. We develop an analytical risk evaluation matrix framework to illustrate changes in production and marketing risks of biotech and non-biotech crops. Price uncertainty generated by consumer concerns is the major risk facing biotech farmers, while cross-pollination with biotech crops and preservation of non-biotech status are major concerns for non-biotech farmers. Improved market infrastructure to handle biotech products and modification of the current risk management tools to accommodate new risks are essential in reducing the farm-level risks.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Genetically modified organisms; Marketing risks; Production risks; Risk evaluation matrix; Risk management; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14683
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ADVERSE SELECTION IN THE MARKET FOR CROP INSURANCE AgEcon
Somwaru, Agapi; Makki, Shiva S.; Coble, Keith H..
This paper examines the potential for adverse selection when farmers are offered a portfolio of insurance policies. We analyze the risk characteristics farmers who bought alternative insurance instruments in 1996-97. Inability to differentiate farmers according to risk types results in pooling equilibrium which may implicitly subsidize high risk farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21002
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Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Exports AgEcon
Shane, Mathew; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi.
While it is generally accepted that change in the real value of the dollar is an important determinant of exports, it has not been rigorously demonstrated that this relationship, derivable from theory, holds empirically for agricultural exports and the components of agricultural exports. Starting with a dynamic maximizing framework, this paper estimates the real trade-weighted exchange rate and trade partner income effects on U.S. agricultural exports. For the period 1970–2006, a one percent annual increase in trade partners’ income is found to increase total agricultural exports by about 0.75 percent, while a one percent appreciation of the dollar relative to trade partner trade-weighted currencies decreases total agricultural exports by about 0.5...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Exchange rates; U.S. agricultural trade; U.S. agricultural commodity exports; U.S. agricultural export prices; Foreign income; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45666
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U.S. Dairy at a Global Crossroads AgEcon
Blayney, Donald P.; Gehlhar, Mark J.; Bolling, H. Christine; Jones, Keithly G.; Langley, Suchada V.; Normile, Mary Anne; Somwaru, Agapi.
Current dynamics in world dairy markets and the potential for global and domestic trade policy reform are bringing the U.S. dairy sector to a new crossroads as it faces competitive forces from outside its borders. Those forces—demand for new products by consumers in industrialized countries, changes in technology, rapid economic growth in emerging developing countries, particularly in Asia, and the increasing role of multinational firms in domestic and global dairy markets—are leading to increased dairy consumption, more opportunities for dairy product trade, and foreign direct investment benefiting both U.S. consumers and producers. As global demand for milk and new dairy products expands, the roles of policies that support prices are diminishing, while...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: International dairy markets; Dairy trade; Dairy policy; Tariffs; Production quotas; Foreign direct investment; Cheese; Butter; Dry milk powders; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7209
Registros recuperados: 69
Primeira ... 1234 ... Última
 

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