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ANÁLISE COMPARATIVA ENTRE ESTRATÉGIAS DE HEDGE COM BASE EM MODELOS ESTÁTICOS E DINÂMICOS PARA CONTRATOS FUTUROS DE CAFÉ ARÁBICA AgEcon
Muller, Carlos Andre da Silva; Moura, Altair Dias de; Lima, Joao Eustaquio de.
Dentro do agronegócio brasileiro, o café arábica está entre os produtos com o mais elevado nível de risco e, ainda assim, é um produto importante para a economia brasileira. Os mercados futuros são reconhecidos como meio de gerenciamento desses riscos, mas observou-se o baixo uso desse mecanismo no caso brasileiro. Por outro lado, a literatura tem avançado quanto aos métodos para realização de estratégias de hedge. Em vista disso, esse artigo teve a finalidade de analisar a efetividade, em redução de riscos, de diferentes estratégias de hedge para o café arábica no Brasil. Foram Testadas quatro estratégias: não atuação em mercados futuros; cobertura completa; estratégia estática que incorpora o conteúdo informacional em médias condicionais, obtida pelo...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Efetividade; Hedge; Café arábica; VEC; MGARCH BEKK; Effectiveness; Hedge; Arabian coffee; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113187
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The Effect of Prior Gains and Losses on Current Risk-Taking Using Quantile Regression AgEcon
Mattos, Fabio; Garcia, Philip.
This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets using a quantile regression framework. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders suggests that there is great heterogeneity in individual trading behavior. Traders respond differently to prior profits depending on how much risk their portfolios are carrying. In general, no significant response is found at average and below-average levels of risk, but response can become large and significant at above-average levels of risk. These results are consistent with studies which argued that behavior may be uneven under different circumstances, and calls into question the adoption of conditional mean framework to investigate trading behavior. Focusing the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Loss aversion; House-money effect; Quantile regression; Futures; Options; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53035
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EFFECTS OF FARMERS' RISK ATTITUDES AND PERSONALITY TYPES ON PRODUCTION AND MARKETING DECISIONS AgEcon
Xu, Pei; Alexander, Corinne E.; Patrick, George F.; Musser, Wesley N..
Producers' risk perceptions, as well as their empirical measurement, have been an on-going concern for agricultural economists. Identification and categorization of producers' risk attitudes is important in both research and extension contexts. This study explores some alternative measures of farmers' attitudes and their relationships with observed producer behavior. The effect of farmers' personality types, as derived from the Myers-Briggs personality type indicator test, on marketing behavior is also explored. There were positive and statistically significant correlations of producers' risk attitudes in various areas of the farm business. However, there are also some differences in producers' willingness to risk, especially in the finance area....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28677
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PRECISION AGRICULTURE, WHOLE FIELD FARMING AND IRRIGATION PRACTICES: A PRODUCTION RISK ANALYSIS AgEcon
Gandonou, Jean-Marc; Dillon, Carl R.; Kanakasabai, Murali; Shearer, Scott A..
One of the potential management practices of precision agriculture (PA) is the capability of varying input application rate across a field. A potential benefit of that practice is the reduction in yield variability. Temporal reduction in yield variability can also be achieved through irrigation practices. Combining both practices should lead to a reduction of the yield risk faced by the farmer. In this study, variable rate application of nutrients will include to nitrogen, potassium and phosphate. Mathematical programming techniques will be used in a standard E-V framework to analyze the ability of PA and/or irrigation to reduce production risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35131
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On the Relationship of Expected Supply and Demand to Futures Prices AgEcon
Chua, Hans Walter; Tomek, William G..
Expectations about future economic conditions are important determinants of commodity prices. This paper presents a relatively simple model that makes futures prices for corn a function of expected production and inventories and of variables that account for demand shifts. The intent is to provide an historical, objective context for new price and quantity observations, which may help market analysts.
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Expected supply; Futures prices; Commodity prices; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121055
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Risk Classification in Animal Disease Prevention: Who Benefits from Differentiated Policy? AgEcon
Niemi, Jarkko K.; Lyytikainen, Tapani; Sahlstrom, Leena; Virtanen, Terhi; Lehtonen, Heikki.
Risk classification of livestock farms can help stakeholders design and implement risk management measures according to the possessed risk. Our goal is to examine how differently pig farms may contribute to the societal costs of an animal disease outbreak, how valuable this information is to different stakeholders, and how it can be used to target risk management measures. We show that the costs of an outbreak starting from a certain farm can be quantified for the entire sector using bio-economic models. In further studies, this quantified risk can be differentiated so that farms and slaughterhouses internalise the full cost of risk in production decisions and inhibit animal densities, animal contact structures or other characteristics which pose a threat...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk classification; Animal disease; Simulation; Dynamic programming; Partial-equilibrium; Losses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49307
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Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production AgEcon
Nagy, Lajos.
This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk; Crop production; Decision support; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49232
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A Whole-Farm Profitability Analysis of Organic and Conventional Cropping Systems AgEcon
Delbridge, Timothy A.; Fernholz, Carmen; Lazarus, William F.; King, Robert P..
Replaced with revised version of paper 05/26/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic Farming; Profitability; Farm Size; Machinery Cost; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103790
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Australian consumers' willingness to pay and willingness to purchase a hypothetical lower cholesterol pork product AgEcon
Bellhouse, Amy; Malcolm, Bill; Griffith, Garry R.; Dunshea, Frank.
This study investigated whether there would be an increase in consumer willingness to pay and purchase if reduced cholesterol pork was introduced to the Australian market. A stated choice analysis was used, with the following questions addressed. How are current purchases of fresh pork affected by concerns about cholesterol content? What financial premium, if any, would consumers place on reduced cholesterol pork? Would consumers buy more pork if a low cholesterol option were available? Is there a group of consumers, such as those with high cholesterol, who have an increased willingness to pay for or purchase reduced cholesterol pork when compared to consumers without this health problem? Results from this study indicated that at present the majority of...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Pork; Cholesterol; Choice analysis; Australian pork; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114414
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NORTH DAKOTA LIGNITE ENERGY INDUSTRY'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE STATE ECONOMY FOR 2001 AND PROJECTED FOR 2002 AgEcon
Coon, Randal C.; Leistritz, F. Larry.
This report provides estimates of the lignite industry's contribution to the North Dakota economy, using key economic indicators such as retail trade activity, personal income, total business activity, employment, and tax revenues. The estimates are based on actual industry expenditures for 2001 and projected expenditures for 2002. This analysis contains two measures of the relative importance of the lignite energy industry in North Dakota. First, the industry's share of the state's total sales to final demand (or exports) is evaluated. Second, the business volume generated by the industry is compared to the total gross business volume for the state. Expenditures were obtained from a survey of firms involved in lignite-related activities (mining or...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Economic impacts; Lignite (coal) mining; Lignite conversion; Input-output analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23664
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Trust Management - Role of International Standards in Facilitating Safe Trade (PowerPoint) AgEcon
Adams, Catherine.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8095
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RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIC AGRICULTURE: VIEW OF ORGANIC FARMERS AgEcon
Hanson, James C.; Dismukes, Robert; Chambers, William; Greene, Catherine R.; Kremen, Amy.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28551
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The Value of Plant Disease Early-Warning Systems: A Case Study of USDA's Soybean Rust Coordinated Framework AgEcon
Roberts, Michael J.; Schimmelpfennig, David E.; Ashley, Elizabeth; Livingston, Michael J.; Ash, Mark S.; Vasavada, Utpal.
Early-warning systems for plant diseases are valuable when the systems provide timely forecasts that farmers can use to inform their pest management decisions. To evaluate the value of the systems, this study examines, as a case study, USDA’s coordinated framework for soybean rust surveillance, reporting, prediction, and management, which was developed before the 2005 growing season. The framework’s linchpin is a website that provides real-time, county-level information on the spread of the disease. The study assesses the value of the information tool to farmers and factors that influence that value. The information’s value depends most heavily on farmers’ perceptions of the forecast’s accuracy. The study finds that the framework’s information is valuable...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Soybean rust; Farmers’ perceptions; Forecast accuracy; Updating beliefs; Value of information; Real-time disease location; Plant disease management; Pest management; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7208
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INTERPRETATIONS AND TRANSFORMATIONS OF SCALE FOR THE PRATT-ARROW ABSOLUTE RISK AVERSION COEFFICIENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE: COMMENT AgEcon
McCarl, Bruce A..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32224
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Eliminating Price Risk to Expand Capacity for Value-Added Activities (PowerPoint) AgEcon
Gunderson, Michael A.; Gloy, Brent A..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48142
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Feasibility of the Income Stabilisation Tool in Finland AgEcon
Liesivaara, Petri; Myyra, Sami; Jaakkola, Antti.
Whole-farm income insurances are promoted in the new post-2013 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The current Crop Damage Compensation (CDC) scheme in Finland covers crop failure for farmers who have suffered losses and applied for the payments. This paper analyses the use of the Income Stabilisation Tool (IST) and compares it to the current CDC scheme in Finland. The Finnish Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) is used to simulate the costs of IST compensation payments. Special attention is paid to pig farms and their possibilities to manipulate the IST. Results show that the IST is triggered with a high frequency on Finnish farms. The IST would be more costly than the current CDC programme. The results also suggest that the IST would act as an income...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Income stabilization tool; Moral hazard; Farm Accountancy Data Network; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122537
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Media Analysis on Volatile Markets’ Dynamics and Adaptive Behavior for the Agri-Food System AgEcon
von Davier, Zazie; Heyder, Matthias; Theuvsen, Ludwig.
The volatility of agricultural markets has increased remarkably in recent years. In spite of this, the way in which supply chain actors perceive market volatility has only rarely been analyzed. This paper seeks to close this research gap by presenting empirical findings about how the volatility of agricultural markets is perceived, how increasing market volatilities are being explained, and what adaptations to the volatile external environments are being suggested. Based on a large-scale media analysis, we have identified perceptions, which vary greatly over time, especially with regard to the perception of the threats and opportunities volatility creates for farms and firms and the most frequently identified reasons for volatile prices
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Media analysis; Public discourse; Shared assumptions; Volatility; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97024
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Producers Rely on Contracts To Manage Increased Price Risks AgEcon
MacDonald, James M.; Korb, Penelope J..
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123226
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Learning by Doing, Risk Aversion and Use of Risk Management Strategies AgEcon
Uematsu, Hiroki; Ashok, Mishra K..
Using a national survey, double hurdle models are estimated to examine the impact of farmers’ risk attitude on use of production and marketing contracts. Risk averse farmers are less likely to use contracts but risk attitude does not have any significant impact on the intensity at which contracts are adopted.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk attitude; Double hurdle model; Production contracts; Marketing contracts; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; Q13; D81.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103851
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The Real Options Approach to Evaluating a Risky Investment by a New Generation Cooperative: Further Processing AgEcon
Bailey, Michael D.; Sporleder, Thomas L..
Farmers continue to be interested in opportunities for value added production through further processing. New Generation Cooperatives (NGCs) offer member commitment through up-front capital contributions on the part of members. For a potential start-up NGC, one of new and novel issues that face the management of an NGC is making project commitments against the total capital available, both equity and debt capital. Because of the up-front capital commitment by members, NGCs invite managers to make commitments in phases, rather than one initial go or no-go decision. Thus, the capital decision is complex and requires managerial vision in terms of an uncertain world beset by constant shifts in prices, interest rates, consumer tastes, and technology. This paper...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31807
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