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| Registros recuperados: 2.166 | |
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| Li, NaiChia; Roe, Terry L.. |
| The maintained hypotheses embodied in structural general equilibrium models calibrated to data have tended to make economists and policy makers insecure regarding their empirical foundation. Advances in dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) theory and its empirical application have exacerbated this insecurity since the forecasts provide by these models brings questions of validation to the forefront. Here, methods are developed to measure the magnitude of bias in DGE forecasts that are simple to implement. We adopted the concordance correlation measure, and introduced a time function method to assess the bias in DGE forecasts. A time-series confidence interval method is also introduced to formally judge the "good" forecasts from the "bad". A calibrated DGE... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21325 |
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| Liu, Jing; Arndt, Channing; Hertel, Thomas W.. |
| Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used for quantitative analysis of global economic issues. However, CGE models are frequently criticized for resting on weak empirical foundations. This paper builds on recent work in macro-econometric estimation, developing an approach to parameter estimation for a widely employed global CGE model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. An approximate likelihood function is developed and the set of optimum elasticity values is obtained by maximizing this approximate likelihood function in the context of a back casting exercise. In addition, two statistical tests are performed. The first of these tests compares the standard GTAP elasticity vector with the estimated trade elasticity... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28687 |
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| Meyerhoefer, Chad D.; Ranney, Christine K.; Sahn, David E.. |
| In this paper we derive a joint continuous/censored demand system suitable for the analysis of commodity demand relationships using panel data. Unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for using a correlated random effects specification and a Generalized Method of Moments framework used to estimate the model in two stages. While relatively small differences in elasticity estimates are found between a flexible specification and one that restricts the relationship between the random effect and budget shares to be time invariant, larger differences are observed between the most flexible random effects model and a pooled cross sectional estimator. The results suggest the limited ability of such estimators to control for preference heterogeneity and unit value... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19992 |
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| Royston, Patrick. |
| Normal-based confidence intervals for a parameter of interest are inaccurate when the sampling distribution of the estimate is nonnormal. The technique known as profile likelihood can produce confidence intervals with better coverage. It may be used when the model includes only the variable of interest or several other variables in addition. Profile-likelihood confidence intervals are particularly useful in nonlinear models. The command pllf computes and plots the maximum likelihood estimate and profile likelihood–based confidence interval for one parameter in a wide variety of regression models. |
| Tipo: Article |
Palavras-chave: Pllf; Profile likelihood; Confidence interval; Nonnormality; Nonlinear model; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119282 |
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| Pannell, David J.; Kingwell, Ross S.; Schilizzi, Steven. |
| Bugs are an unavoidable aspect of mathematical programming (MP) modelling. In this paper we discuss the prevention and diagnosis of bugs in MP models. The topic is rarely addressed in the literature but is crucial to the success of modelling projects, especially for large models. We argue that finding a bug and understanding unexpected results (whether or not due to a bug) are very closely related activities. We identify different types of bugs and suggest practical strategies for dealing with each. Adopting procedures for prevention of bugs is essential, especially for large models. We outline the prevention strategies we have adopted and found successful for the MIDAS and MUDAS models. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12306 |
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| Yang, Seung-Ryong; Koo, Won W.; Wilson, William W.. |
| This study examines three alternative models of correcting for heteroskedasticity in wheat yield: the time trend variance, the GARCH, and an econometric model that includes the potential sources of heteroskedasticity. Nonnested test results suggest that modeling the sources of heteroskedasticity is the preferred procedure. Including potential sources of heteroskedasticity as explanatory variables removed the heteroskedasticity in the sample wheat yields. The results also suggest that the GARCH specification is a promising model of correcting for heteroskedasticity when the sources cannot be identified. The time trend variance model alone may misspecify the true variance structure. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 1992 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30738 |
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| Hoffmann, Ruben. |
| This paper examines how ownership structure affects quality choice and the subsequent equilibrium outcomes within a duopoly framework. Specifically, investor owned firms and cooperatives are analyzed in a closed market setting where these firms may coexist in the economy. The conditions under which ownership structure matters are identified. We conclude that ownership structure matters if the cost of quality at farm level is fixed or if there is a variable cost exhibiting non-constant returns to scale. Two farm level cost functions, a fixed cost function that is increasing and convex in quality, and a variable cost function that is increasing and convex in quantity are analyzed. The two processing firms play a two-stage game where each of the firms... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19869 |
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| Registros recuperados: 2.166 | |
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