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Bio-ethanol Production from Wheat in the Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa: A Quantitative Risk Analysis AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Lemmer, Wessel J.; Outlaw, Joe L..
Contrary to developments in other parts of the world, South Africa has not developed a bio-ethanol industry. The objective was to quantify the risks and economic viability of a wheat based bio-ethanol plant in the winter rainfall region of South Africa. Monte Carlo simulation of a bio-ethanol plant was used to quantify the risk that investors will likely face. Under the Base scenario a 103 million liter bio-ethanol plant would not offer a reasonable chance of being economically viable. Alternative price enhancing policies were analyzed to determine policy changes needed to make a bio-ethanol plant economically viable in the region.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Risk analysis; Simulation; Economic viability; Simetar; SERF; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8192
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Agricultural Risk Analysis in the Fars Province of Iran: A Risk-Programming Approach AgEcon
Kehkha, Ahmad Ali; Mohammadi, Gholamreza Soltani; Villano, Renato A..
Mathematical programming methods are widely used for modelling farmers' decision-making and for economic analysis in agriculture. In this study, a MOTAD risk-programming model is applied to study the effects of risk on cropping pattern and farmers' income in Ramjerd and Sarpaniran districts near Marvdasht in the Fars Province of Iran. Primary data from 194 farmers randomly selected from 31 villages are used in this study. The results indicate that variability of crops gross margins or outcomes has a significant effect on cropping pattern but it varies over different farmers and regions with various conditions. Moreover, it was found that farm plans with more number of crops have a lower return but high degree of certainty. Based on this research,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; MOTAD model; Risk-programming model.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12897
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Stochastic Utility-Efficient Programming of Organic Dairy Farms AgEcon
Flaten, Ola; Lien, Gudbrand D..
Opportunities to make sequential decisions and adjust activities as a season progresses and more information becomes available characterize the farm management process. In this paper, we present a discrete stochastic two-stage utility efficient programming model of organic dairy farms, which includes risk aversion in the decision maker's objective function as well as both embedded risk (stochastic programming with resource) and non-embedded risk (stochastic programming without recourse). Historical farm accountancy data and subjective judgments were combined to assess the nature of the uncertainty that affects the possible consequences of the decisions. The programming model was used within a stochastic dominance framework to examine optimal strategies...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Risk analysis; Stochastic programming; Stochastic dominance; Organic farming; Livestock Production/Industries; Q12; C61.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24743
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Cost and benefits of using best management practices to control non-point sources of pollution under environmental and economic uncertainty AgEcon
Rodriguez, Hector German; Popp, Jennie S. Hughes; Gbur, Edward E.; Chaubey, Indrajeet.
The economy of northwest Arkansas, including the Lincoln Lake watershed (a sub-watershed of the Illinois River), relies greatly upon livestock and poultry production. The supply of production by-products is increasingly under scrutiny as one of the potential sources of water pollution in the region. In light of the recent economic crisis, methodologies that help producers to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of several practices before implementing them may be a cost-effective means of increasing BMP adoption. This study uses stochastic dominance techniques to evaluate, environmentally and economically, ten best management practices (BMPs) combinations to lessen water pollution in the Lincoln Lake watershed. All BMP combinations analyzed were...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Nonpoint pollution; Watershed; Best management practices; Risk analysis; Stochastic dominance; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q25; Q53.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103344
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A Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Food-borne Pathogens AgEcon
Henson, Spencer J.; Caswell, Julie A.; Cranfield, John A.L.; Fazil, Aamir; Davidson, Valerie J.; Anders, Sven M.; Schmidt, Claudia.
To lower the incidence of human food-borne disease, experts and stakeholders have urged the development of a science- and risk-based management system in which food-borne hazards are analyzed and prioritized. A literature review shows that most approaches to risk prioritization developed to date are based on measures of health outcomes and do not systematically account for other factors that may be important to decision making. The Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework developed here considers four factors that may be important to risk managers: public health, consumer risk perceptions and acceptance, market-level impacts, and social sensitivity. The framework is based on the systematic organization and analysis of data on these multiple factors....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Risk prioritization; Food-borne pathogens; Benefits and costs; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; I18; L51; Q00; K32; H11.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7385
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Food Safety Management in a Global Environment: The Role of Risk Assessment Models AgEcon
Fuentes-Pila, Joaquin; Jimeno, Vicente; Manzano, Amparo; Rodriguez Monroy, Carlos; Mar Fernandez, Maria Del.
Quantitative risk assessment models are playing a minor role in the development of the new EU legal framework for food safety. There is a tendency of the EU institutions to apply the precautionary principle versus the predisposition of the USA institutions to rely on risk analysis. This paper provides a comparison of the role played by quantitative risk assessment models in the development of new policies on food safety in the EU and in the USA, focusing on a study case: the supply chain of shell eggs. We suggest that EU regulatory bodies should reconsider the role that quantitative risk assessment models have to play in order to design more effective food safety management systems.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food safety policy; Food safety assurance; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Precautionary principle; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7737
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Análise de risco do desempenho econômico de um sistema de recria de gado de corte em regime de pastejo rotacionado AgEcon
Simoes, Andre Rozemberg Peixoto; Moura, Altair Dias de.
The success of the agricultural systems is affected by several social, cultural and economical variables, which can restrict or nurture the development of the agribusiness. In this context, agricultural managers search for ways to improve production efficiency. This effort comprises the improvement of the managerial activities and decision making process. This research aimed to build a risk analysis framework, using different scenarios of economical analysis of an animal husbandry firm. The data used was collected from a rotational grazing system for beef cattle. The results suggest that the profitability of the system is low, and some of the risk scenarios presented negative profitability.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Economical analysis; Beef cattle; Scenarios; Monte Carlo simulation; Risk analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55309
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A Flexible Parametric Family for the Modeling and Simulation of Yield Distributions AgEcon
Ramirez, Octavio A.; McDonald, Tanya U.; Carpio, Carlos E..
The distributions currently used to model and simulate crop yields are unable to accommodate a substantial subset of the theoretically feasible mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis (MVSK) hyperspace. Because these first four central moments are key determinants of shape, the available distributions might not be capable of adequately modeling all yield distributions that could be encountered in practice. This study introduces a system of distributions that can span the entire MVSK space and assesses its potential to serve as a more comprehensive parametric crop yield model, improving the breadth of distributional choices available to researchers and the likelihood of formulating proper parametric models.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Parametric methods; Yield distributions; Yield modeling and simulation; Yield nonnormality; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C15; C16; C46; C63.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90675
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An Economic Risk Analysis of No-till Management for the Rice-Soybean Rotation System used in Arkansas AgEcon
Hristovska, Tatjana; Watkins, K. Bradley; Anders, Merle M..
Arkansas is the top domestic rice producer, representing nearly half of total U.S. rice production. Sediment is one of the major pollutants in rice producing areas of Arkansas. In order to mitigate this problem no-tillage management is often recommended. No-tillage is not well understood by farmers who believe that no-till is less profitable due to lower yields offsetting cost savings. This study evaluates the profitability and variability of no-till in the typical rice-soybean rotation used in Arkansas rice production. Crop yields, prices and prices for key production inputs (fuel and fertilizer) are simulated for the rotation, and net return distributions for rice, soybean and the two-year rotation are evaluated for no-till and conventional till using...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Simulation; Rice-soybean; No tillage-profitability; Risk analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119676
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Broiler Chicken Meat Inspection Data in Brazil: A First Glimpse into an Animal Welfare Approach Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Avic.
Souza,APO; Taconeli,CA; Plugge,NF; Molento,CFM.
ABSTRACT We aimed to study the potential use of carcass condemnation data of broiler chicken slaughterhouses in Brazil as indicators in an animal welfare monitoring program, and to identify points to be addressed to increase data reliability. Data from 2010 to 2015 in the states of Paraná (PR), Santa Catarina (SC) and Rio Grande do Sul (RS) were used. Fractures and bruising were recorded together, representing the most prevalent welfare problem, followed by skin lesion or inflammation. In PR, progressive increases on injury, arthritis, ineffective bleeding, and air sacculitis condemnation may reveal important welfare aspects. High correlation between AWI within PR was more commonly observed than in RS and SC, perhaps as a result of earlier implementation...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Animal-based indicators; Carcass downgrading; Risk analysis; Welfare assessment; Welfare surveillance.
Ano: 2018 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-635X2018000300547
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CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY Rev. Bras. Frutic.
SIMÕES,DANILO; CABRAL,ANTÔNIO CARLOS; OLIVEIRA,PAULO ANDRÉ DE.
ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method....
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Citrus sinensis Osbeck; Agricultural economics; Monte Carlo.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-29452015000400859
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Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural
Sant´Anna,Danielle D.; Silva,Carlos Arthur B. da; Gomes,Sebastião T..
A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L) on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%). In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Milk; Bulk milk collection; Risk analysis.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-20032003000200005
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RISK ANALYSIS OF THE EXACERBATION OF FOODBORNE PATHOGENS IN RAW MILK ACTIVATED WITH THE LACTOPEROXIDASE SYSTEM Rev Salud Anim.
Armenteros,Mabelin; Dalvit,Paolo; Leyva,Virginia; Ponce,P; Alfonso,P.
One of the most studied systems in the last 20 years. The lactoperoxidase-thiocyanate-hydrogen peroxide system (LP System) is due to its potential possibilities to avoid raw milk deterioration against undesirable microorganisms. There are experimental and practical evidences demonstrating that the use of this method is innocuous. That is why, the Committee of Experts for Food Additives (JECFA) has pointed out that it is acceptable from the toxicological point of view. However, CODEX guidelines have identified the need of having greater information about the risk of exacerbation of pathogen bacteria present in milk because of the inhibition of the natural flora present in raw milk. The objective of the present study consisted on evaluating the effect of the...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: LP system; Foodborne pathogens; Risk analysis; Milk.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0253-570X2007000300008
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Territorial risks analysis by transboundary animal diseases in Cuba Rev Salud Anim.
Percedo,María Irian; González,Isel; Chávez,Pablo R; Delgado,Carlos; Abeledo,María Antonia.
A methodology for the territorial risk analysis of biological disasters due to transboundary animal diseases (TADs) was developed and conducted in all municipalities in the country. The methodology identifies the relevant places for the potential entry and the following spreading of TADs (objectives with biological risk-OBR), and characterizes the level of their vulnerability (sanitary gaps) as well as that of the local animal populations. The vulnerability of animal populations considers many topics divided into four aspects: structure of animal production, sanitary control, urbanization of animal rearing, and general characteristics of the municipality. In 161 municipalities, 1597 OBRs were identified. Few municipalities were classified at the highest...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Transboundary diseases; Animal protection; Biological disasters; Prevention; Risk reduction.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0253-570X2013000200007
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Risks associated with a double-cropping production system - a case study in southern Brazil Scientia Agricola
Osaki,Mauro; Alves,Lucilio Rogerio Aparecido; Lima,Fabio Francisco; Ribeiro,Renato Garcia; Barros,Geraldo Sant'Ana de Camargo.
ABSTRACT: This study assessed the risk exposure of the production system of a typical farm in southern Brazil. Five possible production systems were analyzed, combining three crops (soybeans, corn seasons and wheat) in different crop-year combinations, for example: “Summer soybeans followed by corn” and “Autumn corn followed by winter wheat”. Five different production systems were created based on the intensity of land use for each of the crops. Primary data were collected from a typical farm in the producing region over eight seasons (2006/07 to 2013/14). The Monte Carlo simulation technique was used to evaluate negative Net Operating Revenue (NOR) risk. The results showed that the production system with soybean and first season corn had a higher NOR and...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Monte Carlo simulation; Risk analysis; Farm risk.
Ano: 2019 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90162019001200130
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การวิเคราะห์ความเสี่ยงในการปลูกข้าวนาน้ำฝนโดยใช้ระบบสารสนเทศภูมิศาสตร์และแบบจำลองการเจริญเติบโตของพืช Thai Agricultural
Surajit Phuphak; Bas Bouman.
Risk due to rainfall variability is crucial in rainfed rice growing areas in the NE Thailand therefore analysis on risk coping of the farmers is importance. This research had evaluated the yield of KDML105 rice variety using a knowledge-based system approach, subject to rainfall uncertainty in 6 different kinds of paddies that related to soil and hydrological variability, with 4 scenarios of sowing times and 2 sowing methods in a watershed area of Ubon Ratchathani province. A GIS and a rice growth simulation model, ORYZA2000, tools were used with stochastic efficiency rule to analyze risk. The results showed that KDML105 yield was sensitive to rainfall variability, sowing times and sowing methods rather than variability of soil and hydrology which related...
Tipo: Collection Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Rainfed rice production; Crop growth simulation model; GIS; ORYZA2000; KDML 105; Yield; ข้าว; การปลูกข้าวนาน้ำฝน; แบบจำลองการเจริญเติบโต; จีไอเอส; ORYZA2000; พันธุ์ขาวดอกมะลิ 105; ผลผลิต; การวิเคราะห์ความเสี่ยง.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://anchan.lib.ku.ac.th/agnet/handle/001/5102
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Risk analysis in the spillway of dam Orós by excess of influent flow Anais da ABC (AABC)
Goes Filho,Adbeel.
This paper presents the practical application of concepts, and some methods of risk analysis, to check the possibility of overcoming a water level of project in the spillway of dam Orós, by excess of influent flow. Also evaluated the empirical formulas contained in the original design. Due to the difficulty of obtaining design data from the dam, since the end of construction date of January, 11, 1961, we minimize the effects of some variables in the calculations, leading us to the consequent simplification of the scenario under study. For a better evaluation and characterization of the setting, some variables in the model such as water level, accumulation and flow of the spillway, had updated their data to June 28, 2011. We have demonstrated the importance...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Public dams; Reservoirs; Water resources management.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652013000100405
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Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation BJMBR
Reis,M.A.M.; Ortega,N.R.S.; Silveira,P.S.P..
In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Fuzzy sets; Risk analysis; Medical expert systems; Perinatal asphyxia; Neonatal resuscitation.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X2004000500018
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Evaluation of Risk Factors in Agriculture: An Application of the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) Methodology Chilean J. Agric. Res.
Toledo,Roger; Engler,Alejandra; Ahumada,Víctor.
Risk in the agricultural sector has multiple dimensions or factors and prioritization of these can support decision making. On the other hand, knowing the importance of these risk factors for distinct agricultural activities and how they vary according to geographic zone constitutes relevant information for agricultural development. The objective of this study was to prioritize risk factors that are highly relevant for farmers in Central South Chile. The multi-criteria Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) methodology was used to define a decision structure with four risk factors or criteria: climate, price and direct cost variability, human factor, and commercialization. In general, results obtained showed that there are no important imbalances in the...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; AHP; Multi-criteria decisions.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-58392011000100014
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Deterministic economic analysis of feedlot Red Angus young steers: slaughter weights and bonus Ciência Rural
Pacheco,Paulo Santana; Vaz,Fabiano Nunes; Restle,João; Ávila,Mozer Manetti de; Olegario,Janaine Leal; Menezes,Fernanda Rezer de; Valença,Karoline Gomes; Lemes,Daniel Batista; Vargas,Fabiano Vargas de.
The joint analysis of indicators of the investment project is very relevant in making decisions, resulting in more consistent information regarding risk assessment and its confrontation with the possibility of return. This research aimed to evaluate the economic feasibility of Red Angus young steers finished in feedlot, slaughtered at 340, 373, 396 or 430kg with use of various financial indicators, marketed with or without bonus. The purchase of feeder cattle and feeding were variable costs with a higher share in the total cost. In the analysis with bonus, the regression analysis to gross margin, net margin, net present value, benefit:cost index and additional return on investment showed quadratic behavior, with the point of maximum at 406kg (R$ 185.17),...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Investment analysis; Risk analysis; Beef cattle; Ideal slaughter weight; Termination system.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-84782015000300492
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