SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Anthoff, David; Hepburn, Cameron; Tol, Richard S.J..

Climate change would impact different countries differently, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. Equity-weighted estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may also change the sign of the social cost estimates. Equity weights need to be normalised. Our estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region of normalisation. A discounting error of equity weighted social cost of carbon estimates in earlier work (Tol, Energy Journal, 1999), led to an error of a factor two. Equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to...

Optimizing Voluntary Deforestation Policy in the Face of Adverse Selection and Costly Transfers

Palavras-chave: Marginal Damage Costs; Climate Change; Equity; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9325

van Benthem, Arthur A.; Kerr, Suzi.

As part of international climate change policy, voluntary opt-in programs to reduce emissions in unregulated sectors or countries have spurred considerable discussion. Since any regulator will make errors in predicting baselines, adverse selection will reduce efficiency since participants will self-select into the program. In contrast, pure subsidies lead to full participation but require large financial transfers; this is a particular challenge across countries. A global social planner facing costless transfers would choose such a subsidy to maximize efficiency. However, any actual policy needs to be individually rational for both the buying (industrialized) and selling (developing) country. We present a simple model to analyze this trade-off between...

The Political economy of environmental policy with overlapping generations

Palavras-chave: Voluntary opt-in; Adverse selection; Deforestation; Offsets; Emissions trading; REDD; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Q54; Q56.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96813

Karp, Larry S.; Rezai, Amon.

A two-sector OLG model illuminates previously unexamined intergenerational effects of a tax that protects an environmental stock. A traded asset capitalizes the economic returns to future tax-induced environmental improvements, benefiting the current asset owners, the old generation. Absent a transfer, the tax harms the young generation by decreasing their real wage. Future generations benefit from the tax-induced improvement in environmental stock. The principal intergenerational conflict arising from public policy is between generations alive at the time society imposes the policy, not between generations alive at different times. A Pareto-improving policy can be implemented under various political economy settings.

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Open-access resource; Two-sector overlapping generations; Resource tax; Generational conflict; Environmental policy; Dynamic bargaining; Markov perfection; Environmental Economics and Policy; E24; H23; Q20; Q52; Q54.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123718

The Optimal Climate Policy Portfolio when Knowledge Spills Across Sectors

Massetti, Emanuele; Nicita, Lea.

This paper studies the implications for climate policy of the interactions between environmental and knowledge externalities. Using a numerical analysis performed with the hybrid integrated assessment model WITCH, extended to include mutual spillovers between the energy and the non-energy sector, we show that the combination between environmental and knowledge externalities provides a strong rationale for implementing a portfolio of policies for both emissions reduction and the internalisation of knowledge externalities. Moreover, we show that implementing technology policy as a substitute for stabilisation policy is likely to increase global emissions.

Climate Change and Food Security to 2050: A Global Economy-wide Perspective

Palavras-chave: Technical Change; Climate Change; Development; Innovation; Spillovers; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28; O31; O41; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92912

Valenzuela, Ernesto; Anderson, Kym.

Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses the GTAP global economy-wide model to capture at the same time the expected positive effects on temperate zone crop productivity, which will more or less offset the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity on the productivity of unskilled workers in the tropics, but since they work in nonfarm as well as farm activities the net effect of that shock on agriculture’s competitiveness is an empirical matter....

Emissions Pricing to Stabilize Global Climate

Palavras-chave: Climate change; Crop and labour productivity growth; Global computable general equilibrium model projections; Productivity Analysis; D58; F17; Q17; Q24; Q54.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100531

Bosetti, Valentina; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M.; Carraro, Carlo.

In the absence of significant greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, many analysts project that atmospheric concentrations of species identified for control in the Kyoto protocol could exceed 1000 ppm (carbon-dioxide-equivalent) by 2100 from the current levels of about 435 ppm. This could lead to global average temperature increases of between 2.5 and 6°C by the end of the century. There are risks of even greater warming given that underlying uncertainties in emissions projections and climate response are substantial. Stabilization of GHG concentrations that would have a reasonable chance of meeting temperature targets identified in international negotiations would require significant reductions in GHG emissions below “business-as-usual” levels, and indeed from...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Emissions Pricing; Climate Stabilization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q58.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119102

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PRODUCTION RISK IN CHINESE AQUACULTURE

Holst, Rainer; Yu, Xiaohua.

Drawing on the method developed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979), this paper separately analyzes the marginal contributions of both regular input factors and climate factors to mean output and to production risk in Chinese inland aquaculture. Furthermore, the net change in output following a 1°C increase in annual average temperature will be determined. According to the results obtained, the impending changes in global climate will have both positive and negative impacts. While an increment in annual average temperatures will increase mean output and decrease production risk, an increase in temperature variability will reduce mean output and cause a higher level of production risk. The corresponding measures of precipitation however have no significant impact...

Modeling the Effects of Cap and Trade and a Carbon Offset Policy on Crop Allocations and Farm Income

Palavras-chave: Aquaculture; Climate change; Production risk; China; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91275

Nalley, Lawton Lanier; Popp, Michael P..

A static, producer profit maximization framework is used to capture county level land use choice on the basis of profitability, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the farm gate as well as soil carbon sequestration as affected by tillage and soil type. Policy scenarios of a 5% GHG cap on agricultural emissions in conjunction with a carbon offset payment system, designed to provide producer payments for net carbon footprint (GHG emissions – soil carbon sequestration) reductions compared to a baseline are evaluated to determine potential changes to land use and or producer income as a result of different policy scenarios. Results suggest that a policy solely targeted at emissions can be counterproductive in the sense that acreage reductions of more...

Innovations in Government Responses to Catastrophic Risk Sharing for Agriculture in Developing Countries

Palavras-chave: Cap and Trade; Carbon Sequestration; GHG Emissions; Agriculture; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q50; Q58; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60931

Skees, Jerry R.; Barnett, Barry J.; Hartell, Jason G..

Markets for transferring catastrophic risk in agriculture are woefully lacking in developing countries. Even in developed countries, markets for transferring the risk of crop losses caused by natural hazards generally exist only with large government subsidies. However, such subsidies can be expensive, inefficient, and have detrimental implications that make future catastrophes even worse. In developing countries fiscal constraints limit the degree to which governments can subsidize markets for agricultural risk-sharing. Nonetheless, there are specific things governments can do to facilitate the development of these markets. This paper addresses the role of government in agricultural risk-sharing for natural disasters that impact crop yields or livestock...

How Ambitious are China and India’s Emissions Intensity Targets?

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D8; H5; Q14; Q18; Q54.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25548

Stern, David I.; Jotzo, Frank.

As part of the negotiating process for a post-Kyoto climate policy regime, several developing economies have announced carbon emission targets for 2020. China and India’s commitments are framed as emissions intensity reductions by 40 to 45 per cent and 20 to 25 per cent respectively between 2005 and 2020. But how feasible are these proposed emissions intensity reductions, and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the United States and the European Union? In this research report we use a stochastic frontier model to explain the variation in countries’ energy intensities. We use the model to produce emissions projections for China and India under a number of scenarios that consider various rates of technological change and changes in the...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Carbon emissions; Climate change; Developing countries; Projections; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O13; Q54; Q56; Q58.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94947

The Effect of Climate Change, CO2 Fertilization, and Crop Production Technology on Crop Yields and Its Economic Implications on Market Outcomes and Welfare Distribution

Attavanich, Witsanu; McCarl, Bruce A..

Many studies have done econometric estimates of how climate alters crop yields and or land rents in an effort to gain information on potential effects of climate change. However, an important related factor, the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and in fact a driver of climate change is ignored. This means the prior econometric estimates are biased as they infer what will happen under climate change from observations in the recent past, but without consideration of CO2 effects. Furthermore although CO2 has been varying, it has proceeded at a very linear pace and cannot be disentangled from technological progress using historical crop yield data. This paper is designed to overcome this issue and estimate the consequences that CO2 has and...

Economics of Forest and Agricultural Carbon Sinks

Palavras-chave: Carbon Dioxide Fertilization; Crop Yield; Yield Variability; Climate Change; Crop Production Technology; Welfare Distribution; Market Outcomes; Stochastic Production Function; The Agricultural Sector Model; Feasible Generalized Least Squares; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C61; C13; Q16; Q54; D69; D24.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103324

van Kooten, G. Cornelis.

Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q10; Q23; Q27; Q54.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37013

Catenacci, Michela; Giupponi, Carlo.

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of...

Carbon Sinks and Reservoirs: The Value of Permanence and Role of Discounting

Palavras-chave: Adaptation to Climate Change; Bayesian Network; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59385

Benitez, Pablo C.; van Kooten, G. Cornelis.

Scientists are enthusiastic about storing carbon in terrestrial sinks and geological reservoirs in order to obviate the need for lifestyle-changing reductions in fossil-fuel use. Estimating relative costs of various options depends on how permanence is assessed and whether physical carbon is discounted. We demonstrate that, in carbon markets, terrestrial sinks credits cannot be traded one-for-one for emission reduction credits and the conversion factor would depend on how long sinks keep CO2 out of the atmosphere as compared with emission reductions and, discounting physical carbon. As a result, the authority could not determine a conversion factor and the market would be required to do so.

Private Forest Landowners’ Response to Incentives for Carbon Sequestration

Palavras-chave: Climate change; Carbon offset; Carbon sinks; Discounting physical carbon; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O13; Q54.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37018

Kim, Taeyoung; Langpap, Christian.

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Intermediate Forest Management; Carbon Sequestration; Incentive Payments; Price of Carbon; NIPF; Fuel Treatment; Fertilization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Q23; Q54.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124362

Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World

Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele.

We propose a realistic approach to climate policy based on the Copenhagen Agreement to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions. We assess by how much the non-binding, although official, commitments to reduce emissions made in Copenhagen will affect the level of world GHGs emissions in 2020. Our estimates are based on official communications to the UNFCCC, on historic data and on the Business-as-Usual scenario of the WITCH model. We are not interested in estimating the gap between the expected level of emissions and what would be needed to achieve the 2°C target. Nor do we attempt to calculate the 2100 temperature level implied by the Copenhagen pledges. We believe these two exercises are subject to high uncertainty and would not improve the current state...

Feeding the Cities and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Beyond the Food Miles Approach

Palavras-chave: Kyoto Protocol; International Climate Agreements; Climate Policy; Clean Development Mechanism; Environmental Economics and Policy; F5; Q01; Q54; Q58.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98094

de Cara, Stephane; Fournier, Anne; Gaigne, Carl.

In this paper, we study the impact of urbanization on the location of agricultural production and the GHG emissions related to transportation activities. We develop an economic geography model where the location of agricultural activities and urban population are endogenous. We show that increasing agricultural yields induce the spatial concentration of agricultural production in the least urbanized region if agricultural transport costs are relatively low and in the most urbanized region otherwise. In addition, interregional trade in agricultural commodities is desirable to reduce GHG emissions, except when urban population is equally split between cities. However, the market may induce too much agglomeration of agricultural production when yields are...

Agricultural Productivity, Drought, and Economic Growth in Sahel

Palavras-chave: Urbanization; Agriculture location; Transport; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; Q10; Q54; R12.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114350

Boubacar, Inoussa.

A standardized precipitation index is used in a regression analysis to quantify the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Sahel. I first estimate a Malmquist productivity index and its efficiency and technical change components. I further assess the statistical significance of the indices by estimating some confidence intervals via a bootstrap method. In the second stage of the analysis, I use a Probit model to estimate the extent to which climate variables affect agricultural productivity. It appears that agricultural performance has been disastrous in many Sahelian countries from 1970 to 2000. Using a comparable cross-country measure of drought, I provide evidence that precipitation variability is constraining not only Sahel’s...

REDD in the Carbon Market: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Palavras-chave: Productivity; Agriculture; Sahel; International Development; Production Economics; O13; O55; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56321

Bosello, Francesco; Eboli, Fabio; Parrado, Ramiro; Rosa, Renato.

Deforestation is a major source of CO2 emissions, accounting for around 17% of total annual anthropogenic carbon release. While the cost estimates of reducing deforestation rates vary considerably depending on model assumptions, it is widely accepted that emissions reductions from avoided deforestation consist of a relatively low cost mitigation option. Halting deforestation is therefore not only a major ecological challenge, but also a great opportunity to cost effectively reduce climate change negative impacts. In this paper we analyze the impact of introducing avoided deforestation credits into the European carbon market using a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium model – the ICES model (Inter-temporal Computable Equilibrium System). Taking...

Biological Carbon Sinks: Transaction Costs and Governance

Palavras-chave: Forestry; Avoided Deforestation; Climate Change; Emission Trading; General Equilibrium Modelling; Environmental Economics and Policy; D58; Q23; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98100

van Kooten, G. Cornelis.

Activities that remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in forest and agricultural ecosystems can generate CO2-offset credits that can thus substitute for CO2 emissions reduction. Are biological CO2-uptake activities competitive with CO2 offsets from reduced fossil fuel use? In this paper, it is argued that transaction costs impose a formidable obstacle to direct substitution of carbon uptake offsets for emissions reduction in trading schemes, and that separate caps should be set for emissions reduction and sink-related activities. While a tax/subsidy scheme is preferred to emissions trading for incorporating biologically-generated CO2 offsets, contracts that focus on the activity and not the amount of carbon sequestered are most likely to lead to the...