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| Registros recuperados: 121 | |
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| Isengildina-Massa, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this paper is to determine whether smoothing in USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is concentrated in years with relatively small and large crops. The sample consists of all USDA corn and soybean production forecasts released over the 1970 through 2006 crop years. Results show that USDA crop production forecasts in both corn and soybeans have a marked tendency to decrease in small crop years and increase in big crop years. The magnitude of smoothing is surprisingly large, with corn and soybean production forecasts cumulatively revised downward by about 6 to 7 percent in small crop years and upward by about 5 to 6 percent in large crop years. Crop condition ratings are useful in predicting whether the current year is likely to be a... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Corn; Crop production; Forecasts; Smoothing; Soybeans; USDA. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37563 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Jackson, Thomas E.. |
| The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 crop years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1998 corn and soybean crops. It is debatable whether the performance of advisory services also is economically significant. The predictability results provide little evidence... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14786 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Batts, Ryan M.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. On average, the results show that the frequency of advisory programs pricing in the top-third of the corn price range over 1995-2004 is modest, between 17 and 25%. By far the largest average frequency occurs in the middle third of the corn price range, ranging from 58 to 63%. Price range results for soybeans are similar to the results for corn. Average differences between 50/50 advisory revenue and benchmarks range from 5 to $7 per acre for market benchmarks and 8 to $12 per acre for farmer benchmarks. The average advisory return relative to the farmer benchmarks is about three percent of average... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37456 |
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| Aulerich, Nicole M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Nelson, Carl H.. |
| This paper investigates the impact of USDA crop production reports in corn and soybean futures markets. The analysis is based on all corn and soybean production reports released over 1970-2006. The empirical analysis compares the typical OLS event study approach to the new Identification by Censoring (ITC) technique. Corn and soybean production reports are analyzed both separately and together for impact in corn and soybean futures prices. ITC proves to be the more useful method because it avoids the pitfalls of errors in variables that cause downward bias in OLS coefficients. Price reaction coefficients estimated via ITC are one to four times larger than OLS estimates for a one price and one event analysis. In the two price, two event case, ITC estimates... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Event study; USDA Crop Production reports; Measurement error; Identification Through Censoring. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37579 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| A conceptual framework is developed which provides insight into the factors affecting the impact of market advisory service (MAS) recommendations on producer pricing decisions. Data from a survey of 656 U.S. producers reveal that the perceived performance of the MAS, the way in which MAS recommendations are delivered, as well as the match between MAS and producers' marketing philosophy, are important factors explaining the impact of MAS recommendations. Risk attitude does not affect the impact of MAS recommendations on producers' decisions, suggesting producers are more interested in the price-enhancing characteristics of MAS advice than in its risk-reducing features. Key words: market advisory services, ordered probit model, producers' marketing decisions |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Market advisory services; Ordered probit model; Producers' marketing decisions; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31104 |
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| Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| We model a futures exchange's clearinghouse as a "bank" holding a portfolio of credit lines available to its clearing members and collateralized with clearing margins or, equivalently, a portfolio of short European put basket options. Consequently, the "bank" model measures the clearinghouse's risk exposure as the sum of the payoff functions of these put options, emphasizing the portfolio diversification and the option-like payoffs. The model is used to assess exchange's clearinghouse's liquidity and credit risk exposure. The model provides exchange clearinghouses and government regulators with a theoretical framework of risk management that systematically integrates clearing margin requirements,credit lines and economic capital. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21087 |
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| Isengildina-Massa, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This paper explores the use of quantile regression for estimation of empirical confidence limits for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices. Quantile regressions for corn, soybean, and wheat forecast errors over 1980/81 through 2006/07 were specified as a function of forecast lead time. Estimated coefficients were used to calculate forecast intervals for 2007/08. The quantile regression approach to calculating forecast intervals was evaluated based on out-of-sample performance. The accuracy of the empirical confidence intervals was not statistically different from the target level about 87% of the time prior to harvest and 91% of the time after harvest. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6409 |
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| Park, Cheol-Ho; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The purpose of this report is to review the evidence on the profitability of technical analysis. To achieve this purpose, the report comprehensively reviews survey, theoretical and empirical studies regarding technical trading strategies. We begin by overviewing survey studies that have directly investigated market participants’ experience and views on technical analysis. The survey literature indicates that technical analysis has been widely used by market participants in futures markets and foreign exchange markets, and that about 30% to 40% of practitioners appear to believe that technical analysis is an important factor in determining price movement at shorter time horizons up to 6 months. Then we provide an overview of theoretical models that include... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37487 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Aulerich, Nicole M.; Brandenberger, Tracy L.; Merrin, Robert P.; Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program’s set of recommendations throughout the crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37485 |
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| Jirik, Mark A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Jirik, Mark A.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance from 1995 through 1998 for wheat. The average net advisory price across all 24 wheat programs in 1995 is $3.79 per bushel, $0.18 above the market benchmark price. The range in 1995 is $3.01 to $4.71 per bushel. The average net advisory service price for 23 wheat programs in 1996 is $3.82 per bushel, $0.13 below the market benchmark. The range in 1996 is $2.74 to $4.94 per bushel. The average net advisory price for all 20 wheat programs in 1997 is $2.64 per bushel, $0.58 below the market benchmark. The range in 1997 is $1.34 to $3.90 per bushel. Finally, the average net advisory price across all 21 services in 1998 is $2.36 per bushel, $0.54 below... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14777 |
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| Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in the 1999 crop year for wheat. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for wheat crop harvested in 1999. The average net advisory price across all 23 wheat programs in 1999 is $2.64 per bushel, $0.04 below the market benchmark price. The range of net advisory prices is substantial, with a minimum of $2.18 per bushel and a maximum of $3.38 per bushel. The average revenue achieved by following an advisory service is $163 per acre, $3.00 less than the market benchmark revenue. The spread in advisory revenue also is noteworthy, with the difference between the bottom- and top-performing advisory... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14788 |
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| Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Isengildina, Olga. |
| This study investigates the impact of six major USDA reports in hog and cattle markets: Cattle; Cattle on Feed; Cold Storage; Hogs and Pigs; Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDPO); and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). A TARCH-in-mean model, with dummy variables to measure the impact of USDA reports and other external factors, is used to model close-to-open live-lean hog and live cattle futures returns from January 1985 through December 2004. The analysis revealed a statistically significant impact of all but Cattle and Cold Storage reports in live/lean hog futures, and all but Cold Storage reports in live cattle futures. Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live/lean hog returns by increasing conditional standard... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Cattle; Event study; Hogs; Livestock; Public information; TARCH model; USDA reports; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8614 |
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| Zulauf, Carl R.; Larson, Donald W.; Alexander, Christopher K.; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| This paper contributes to the debate on whether pre-harvest pricing strategies can improve returns over cash sales at harvest. It also examines cash flow needs of such strategies. The analysis is conducted for Ohio corn produced from 1986 through 1999. The pre-harvest strategies evaluated (short futures, long put, synthetic long put, put-call fence) did not statistically improve returns over cash sales at harvest. However, if implemented during or before planting, these naïve strategies reduced the standard deviation of annual gross income. Substantial cash flow may be incurred, either to establish the strategy or meet margin calls. Therefore, assessments of pre-harvest pricing strategies should include cash flow needs, along with return and risk.... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Cash flow risk; Pre-harvest pricing strategies; Price risk.; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15299 |
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| Hagedorn, Lewis A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| Marketing is viewed as an important component of the farm management process, and poor marketing is often cited as a cause of low farm incomes. However, widespread beliefs about poor performance are not based upon a large body of research, and available evidence is too limited to make definitive conclusions about farmer marketing abilities. This paper examines the actual marketing performance of corn and soybean producers in Illinois. Farmer marketing data is based on the USDA's "Average Producer Price Received" over the period 1975-2002. Marketing performance is assessed using 20- and 24-month average price market benchmarks. A comparison of farmer prices received to the price range for each crop year reveals that in the majority of years producers market... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19029 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| In an effort to improve marketing of their products, many farmers use market advisory services (MAS). To date, there is only fragmented anecdotal information about how farmers actually use the recommendations of market advisory services in their marketing plans, and how they choose among these services. Based on the literature on consulting services usage, a conceptual framework is developed in which perceived performance of the MAS regarding realized crop price and risk reduction, and the match between the MAS and the farmer's marketing philosophy drive MAS usage. To account for possible heterogeneity among farmers regarding to the use of MAS, we introduce a mixture-modeling framework that is able to identify unobserved heterogeneity. With this modeling... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18950 |
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| Registros recuperados: 121 | |
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