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Registros recuperados: 202
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Machinery-Sharing Contractual Issues and Impacts on Cash Flows of Agribusinesses AgEcon
Wolfley, Jared L.; Mjelde, James W.; Klinefelter, Danny A.; Salin, Victoria.
Contractual arrangements for joint machinery ownership between independent agribusinesses are explored. A two-farm economic simulation model of locations in Texas, Colorado, and Montana is developed to provide insight associated with sharing combines. Important variables include combine size (efficiency), yield losses resulting from untimely access to equipment, the penalty structure for untimely delivery, and cost-sharing and depreciation deductions claimed between producers. Combine sharing is risk-reducing in most cases. The gains to both parties are lowest when harvesting periods overlap. While the value of sharing is positive under many scenarios, benefits from sharing are small relative to total farm revenue.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Combines; Machinery sharing; Risk; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105536
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Power by simulation AgEcon
Feiveson, A.H..
This paper describes how to write Stata programs to estimate the power of virtually any statistical test that Stata can perform. Examples given include the t test, Poisson regression, Cox regression, and the nonparametric rank-sum test.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Power; Simulation; Random number generation; Postfile; Copula; Sample size; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115955
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THE EFFECT OF THE NEW SINGLE FARM PAYMENT IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE: THE CASE OF SPAIN AgEcon
Gracia, Azucena; de Magistris, Tiziana; Casado, Jose Maria.
The aim of the paper is to provide an econometric, dynamic, multi-product and partial equilibrium model for the Spanish agriculture able to analyse the effects of the SFP and subsequent reforms in both the irrigated and non-irrigated cultivation. In the case of the EU Mediterranean countries, irrigated agriculture is very relevant because farmers in irrigated land get higher productivity and returns. However, irrigation is also the source of a number of environmental concerns, such as over-abstraction of water from subterranean aquifers, irrigation driven erosion, soil salinisation, etc.. The new decoupling direct payments from production will reduce many of the incentives to intensive production. The developed model is called Spanish Econometric...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP reform; Partial equilibrium model; Policy modelling; Irrigated Agriculture; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6590
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PHOSPHORUS-BASED NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT PLANNING ON DAIRY/POULTRY FARMS: IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS AgEcon
Yang, Xiao; Bosch, Darrell J.; Nordberg, Tone; Wolfe, Mary Leigh.
The effects of phosphorus (P)-based nutrient management plans on economic and environmental risks of dairy and dairy-poultry farms in Virginia were evaluated. Phosphorus-based nutrient management plans can greatly reduce P runoff risk but also reduce farmers' returns. P-based plans cause greater reductions in returns and P runoff on the dairy-poultry farm than on the dairy only farm.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Nutrient runoff; Cost; Mathematical programming; Simulation; Watershed; Environmental Economics and Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21756
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Forecasting the consumption effect of taxing foods containing saturated fat AgEcon
Hansen, Aslak H..
The purpose of the current paper is to explain how one can forecast the effect of an elected tax on saturated fat on the demand for butter. The tax is to take affect from the first of January 2010 in Denmark. The tax is supposed to affect the consumption of saturated fat and especially high consuming households are of interest. Quantile regression is thus better suited than mean regression. Interest centre on at risk groups with larger consumption, but we are also interested in a simple measure that measure the total effect of the tax change, i.e. the unconditional quantile. The former can easily be obtained from the quantile regression while it is proposed to use simulations in the latter case. In mean regression a close form formula for calculating the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Quantile Regression; Simulation; Healthy Diet; Public Policy.; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58153
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Location and Spatial Pricing in Agricultural Markets AgEcon
Graubner, Marten; Balmann, Alfons; Sexton, Richard J..
Agricultural markets often feature significant transport costs and spatially distributed production and processing which causes spatial imperfect competition. Spatial economics considers the firms’ decisions regarding location and spatial price strategy separately, usually on the demand side, and under restrictive assumptions. Therefore, alternative approaches are needed to explain, e.g., the location of new ethanol plants in the U.S. at peripheral as well as at central locations and the observation of different spatial price strategies in the market. We use an agent-based simulation model to analyze location and spatial pricing in a general model under multi-firm competition, two-dimensional space, and a continuum of potential price strategies. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Spatial competition; Location; Price discrimination; Oligopsony; Simulation; Industrial Organization; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C63; Q11; R32.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61225
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Viability of the Raw Cotton Production in Spain After the Decoupling of the Subsidies AgEcon
Arriaza Balmón, Manuel; Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio; Gonzalez, Jose; Ruiz, Pedro.
Considering the latest reform of the EU's Cotton Regulation of 29th April 2004, which will come into force in the 2006/07 season, we analyse its impact on the cotton production sector of Andalusia. The decoupling of subsidies implies that producers will be entitled to 65 percent of the amount received in the reference period (three years) irrespective of the crop chosen to grow. The remaining 35 percent (slightly higher) is paid as cotton are a payment. In this research, first from a survey carried out in 2004 we obtained six groups of producers using fact or analysis and cluster analysis. Then, based on this characterization, we assess the impact of two policy scenarios: (a) the implementation of the reform without any additional measures, and (b) the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cotton; Spain; Mid-Term Reform; Simulation; Multi-Criteria Decision Making; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25445
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THE POSSIBILITIES OF APPLYING HISTORIC SIMULATION FOR ASSESSING THE PROFITABILITY OF INVESTMENTS AgEcon
Peter, Beata.
The above methods of assessment are based on different methodological and mathematical approaches; therefore, they yield slightly different results, which can be used to complement each other and thus gain a more complex picture about the risk of the investment. Calculating break-even points and sensitivity assessment are simple variance calculation methods with differing frameworks or backgrounds. The basis of decision is NPV, as the break even points of the various factors do not come complete with clearly defined rules and cut-off points for accepting or rejecting an investment. This is especially true for the dynamic payback period, which discriminates against long-term investments. Conclusions about the risk of the investment can be drawn if expected...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk factors; Risk assessment methods; Simulation; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58906
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Procurement Strategies to Improve Quality Consistency in Wheat Shipments AgEcon
Wilson, William W.; Dahl, Bruce L..
Consistency of functional characteristics in wheat is a concern confronting buyers and sellers. This research analyzes the cost and risk of different procurement strategies for importers. A stochastic simulation model is used to determine the probability of functional characteristics being satisfied subject to quality targets and costs for alternative purchase strategies. Stochastic efficiency was employed to identify purchase strategies that dominate others and to determine the extent of preference. As more specific characteristics are incorporated into a contract, results indicate that the probabilities of meeting end-use requirements increase
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Buying strategies; Costs; Functional characteristic tests; Location; Risks; Simulation; Stochastic efficiency; Variety; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36708
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Forecasting Demand for Rural Electric Cooperative Call Center AgEcon
Kim, Taeyoon; Kenkel, Philip L.; Brorsen, B. Wade.
This research forecasts peak call volume to allow a centralized call center to minimize staffing costs. A Gaussian copula is used to capture the dependence among nonnormal distributions. Peak call volume can be easily and more accurately predicted using the marginal probability distribution with the copula function than without using a copula. The modeling approach allows simulating adding another cooperative. Ignoring the dependence that the copula includes, causes peak values to be underestimated.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Call center data; Empirical distribution; Extreme value theory; Forecasting; Gamma distribution; Gaussian copula; Simulation; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46809
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Estructura de preferencias de los consumidores de vino y actitudes hacia los vinos con Denominacion de Origen. El caso de Castilla-La Mancha AgEcon
Bernabeu, Rodolfo; Olmeda, Miguel; Diaz, Monica.
El trabajo ha cubierto un doble objetivo, por un lado se ha determinado la importancia relativa de los atributos del vino que influyen en la conformación de las preferencias de los consumidores de Castilla-La Mancha, y por otro se ha analizado la actitud de los consumidores hacia los vinos con certificación de Denominación de Origen (D.O.) más importantes de Castilla-La Mancha (D.O. La Mancha y D.O. Valdepeñas), con respecto al más conocido en el ámbito nacional (D.O. Rioja). Como resultado del primer objetivo, los atributos más relevantes son el precio, el color (tinto, blanco), la certificación y el origen, por este orden, y del segundo objetivo, se obtiene que la D.O. La Mancha y la D.O. Valdepeñas son percibidas como de vinos más baratos, de consumo...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Designation of origin; Consumer behaviour; Conjoint Analysis; Simulation; Positioning brands; Consumer/Household Economics; M31; Q13.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28772
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Analyses of Generic Dairy Advertising, 1984-97 AgEcon
Blisard, Noel; Blayney, Donald P.; Chandran, Ram; Allshouse, Jane E..
Generic advertising raised fluid milk sales about 6.0 percent, or 18.1 billion pounds, between September 1984 and September 1997. Sales of cheese rose by about 6.8 billion pounds (milk equivalent) in the same period because of increased generic advertising. An assessment of 15 cents per hundredweight of milk sold commercially, mandated by the Dairy and Tobacco Adjustment Act of 1983, funded the advertising. Activities of the National Fluid Milk Processor Promotion Board also contributed to increased milk sales over the past year. Gross returns to dairy farmers between September 1984 and September 1997 were estimated to increase by $3.44 for each dollar spent on generic advertising.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Cheese; Fluid milk; Advertising; Demand; Entry; Exit; Distributed lag; Econometrics; Simulation; Elasticities; Milk Processor Education Program; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33554
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Advanced Biofuel Production in Louisiana Sugar Mills: an Application of Real Options Analysis AgEcon
Darby, Paul M.; Mark, Tyler B.; Detre, Joshua D.; Salassi, Michael E..
In order to more fully study the risks and uncertainty involved in cellulosic ethanol production, we examine a simulated plant in South Louisiana using Real Options Analysis
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Real options; Risk; Uncertainty; Cellulosic ethanol; Energy cane; Sorghum; Bagasse; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q14; Q16; D81; G31.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103747
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Bio-ethanol Production from Wheat in the Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa: A Quantitative Risk Analysis AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Lemmer, Wessel J.; Outlaw, Joe L..
Contrary to developments in other parts of the world, South Africa has not developed a bio-ethanol industry. The objective was to quantify the risks and economic viability of a wheat based bio-ethanol plant in the winter rainfall region of South Africa. Monte Carlo simulation of a bio-ethanol plant was used to quantify the risk that investors will likely face. Under the Base scenario a 103 million liter bio-ethanol plant would not offer a reasonable chance of being economically viable. Alternative price enhancing policies were analyzed to determine policy changes needed to make a bio-ethanol plant economically viable in the region.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Risk analysis; Simulation; Economic viability; Simetar; SERF; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8192
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Estimating the Fair Insurance Premium for Dungeness Crab Yields in the Western U.S. Coast AgEcon
Liu, Chia-Lan; Richardson, James W.; Leatham, David J..
The Dungeness is a popular food and the most commercially important crab in the western states in the U.S. Like all agricultural production, the crab fisherman face yield risks and must manage these risks. In addition to weather risk, crab fisherman may experience low yields if the crabs are over fished in previous years. Farmers for many traditional agricultural crops can purchase crop insurance to insure against low yields. However, crab fishermen at this time do not have this option. The purpose of this paper is to estimate a fair insurance premium based on the historical yields of the Dungeness crab. This information can then be used in risk/return models for crab fishing to determine if it would be optimal for fisherman to purchase crop insurance. An...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dungeness Crab; Fair Insurance Premium; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103424
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Hedge Effectiveness Forecasting AgEcon
Dahlgran, Roger A.; Ma, Xudong.
This study focuses on hedging effectiveness defined as the proportionate price risk reduction created by hedging. By mathematical and simulation analysis we determine the following: (a) the regression R2 in the hedge ratio regression will generally overstate the amount of price risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (b) the properly computed hedging effectiveness in the hedge ratio regression will also generally overstate the amount of risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (c) the overstatement in (b) declines as the sample size increases, (d) application of estimated hedge ratios to non sample data results in an unbiased estimate of hedging effectiveness, (e) application of hedge ratios computed from small samples presents a significant...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Out of sample; Post sample; Hedging; Effectiveness; Forecasts; Simulation; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37604
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Mitigating Cotton Revenue Risk Through Irrigation, Insurance, and Hedging AgEcon
Barham, E. Hart Bise; Robinson, John R.C.; Richardson, James W.; Rister, M. Edward.
This study focuses on managing cotton production and marketing risks using combinations of irrigation levels, put options (as price insurance), and crop insurance. Stochastic cotton yields and prices are used to simulate a whole-farm financial statement for a 1,000 acre furrow irrigated cotton farm in the Texas Lower Rio Grande Valley under 16 combinations of risk management strategies. Analyses for risk-averse decision makers indicate that multiple irrigations are preferred. The benefits to purchasing put options increase with yields, as they are more beneficial when higher yields are expected from applying more irrigation applications. Crop insurance is strongly preferred at lower irrigation levels.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cotton; Crop insurance; Irrigation; Options; Puts; Risk; Simulation; Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12; Q15.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117946
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Planning the Sustainable Agro-fuel Supply Chain AgEcon
Rosa, Franco.
The agricultural sector is receiving a great deal of attention for topics of general interest as the security, multifunctional activities, alternative uses of crops in food/feed/fuel, reduction in GHG (Green House Gas) emission, LCA (Life Cycle Assessment). The EU policies are directed to implement sustainable local agro-food systems, and the AFSC (agro-fuel supply chain) represent the central issue in planning agricultural commodities to be used for fuel production performed in a space-time dimension. In this paper it is presented a methodology of regional planning the AFSC supported by empirical evidences in the region FVG (Friuli Venezia Giulia). The reference crop is the Mais largely cultivated in this region and now used to satisfy food-feedstock-fuel...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Planning AFSC; Regional development plan; Multifunctional approach; Agri-food supply chain; Simulation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124130
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Use of a Producer Survey to Reconcile Differences in Experiment Station Yield Estimates AgEcon
Duke, Jason C.; Epplin, Francis M..
Average producer practice reveals that the expected returns are greater from dual-purpose wheat grown for both forage and grain than for grain-only wheat. Variety trials report an 11 bushel per acre yield advantage and hence economic advantage for grain-only. Research was conducted to reconcile the inconsistency.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Direct elicitation method; Dual-purpose; Simulation; Stocker steers; Survey; Triangular distribution; Wheat; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Q10; Q12.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56436
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A Risk Analysis of Converting CRP Acres to a Wheat-Sorghum-Fallow Rotation AgEcon
Williams, Jeffery R.; Llewelyn, Richard V.; Pendell, Dustin L.; Schlegel, Alan J.; Troy, Dumler.
This study examines the economic potential of producing a wheat (Triticum aesitivum) and grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) rotation with three different tillage strategies compared to the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in a semi-arid region. This research uses stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to determine the preferred management strategies under various risk preferences and utility-weighted certainty equivalent risk premiums. Yields, input rates, and field operations from an experimental field in western Kansas are used to calculate net returns for each tillage strategy. Although current net returns to crop production using reduced tillage and no-tillage strategies are higher than CRP, risk analysis indicates CRP...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Conservation Reserve Program; Conservation tillage; Simulation; Sorghum; Wheat; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45985
Registros recuperados: 202
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