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Registros recuperados: 1,657
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TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND RISK MANAGEMENT: AN APPLICATION TO THE ECONOMICS OF CORN PRODUCTION AgEcon
Kim, Kwansoo; Chavas, Jean-Paul.
The paper investigates the linkages between technological change and production risk, with an application to corn. The effects of technology on risk exposure are characterized based on the properties of the risk premium. We define technological progress to be risk-increasing (risk-decreasing) if it increases (decreases) the relative risk premium. The analysis is applied to panel data from Wisconsin research stations. Conditional moments (including mean, variance and skewness) of corn yield, grain moisture and corn profit are estimated for different sites. We investigate how the trade-off between expected return and the risk premium varies over time and over space. The empirical results indicate that technological progress contributes to reducing the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20605
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Procedures for a New Producer to Establish Actual Production History for Crop Insurance Coverage AgEcon
Johnson, James B..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29203
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Revisiting N fertilisation rates in low-rainfall grain cropping regions of Australia: A risk analysis AgEcon
Monjardino, Marta; McBeath, T.; Brennan, Lisa E.; Llewellyn, Rick S..
Mallee farmers minimize downside risk in dry seasons by applying low rates of nitrogen (N) fertiliser to their cereal crops. The opportunity to respond to and capitalize on the better years is further limited as most inputs are applied upfront at sowing. We used an economic-risk decision model to identify a range of tactical N fertilisation options that increase net returns, while minimising risk for farmers with different risk attitudes. Importantly, we concluded that when accounting for long-term risks affecting farmers, the use of higher N rates can play a risk-reducing role in a highly variable environment like the Mallee.
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Nitrogen; Risk; Variance; Crop simulation; Economic net returns; Decision analysis; Zone management; Monte Carlo; Mallee; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124339
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Tart Cherry Yield and Economic Response to Alternative Planting Densities AgEcon
Me-Nsope, Nathalie Mongue.
The study investigates the economic response of tart cherry yields to planting density using an unbalanced longitudinal yield data from tart cherry orchards in Northwest Michigan. The relationship between tart cherry yield and tree age is specified as a linear spline function and planting density interacts with tree age. A random effect method, treating block as random, is used to estimate the spline function. Stochastic simulation was used to estimate the mean and variance of the product of two random variables (price and yield), and the coefficient of variation was used as a measure of how much risk is involved in corn/soybeans production relative to tart cherries production. Estimates of the variance provided the discount factor (10%) and with yields...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation Palavras-chave: Tart cherries; Pricing; Planting density; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; D4; D24; L11.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54502
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THE IMPORTANCE OF USING FARM LEVEL RISK ESTIMATES IN CRP ENROLLMENT DECISIONS AgEcon
Bechtel, Amos I.; Young, Douglas L..
Easily accessible county data produced frontiers which substantially underestimated the reduction in risk by enrolling in the CRP. Furthermore, the county yield data portrayed an unattainable level of utility for a moderately risk averse farmer. Farm level data predicted CRP enrollment similar to actual enrollment in the study region.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35717
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Agricultural Arbitrage, Adjustment Costs, and the Intensive Margin AgEcon
Tack, Jesse B.; LaFrance, Jeffrey T..
Farmland and capital are an important and rapidly expanding component of the agricultural economy, and empirical evidence suggests that these assets are quasi-fixed in that adjustment costs are incurred when holdings are altered. Increased interest in the rate of return for investing in farmland suggests that an important consideration is the effect of adjustment costs on this return. A novel theoretical model is developed that ties together contributions from the farmland pricing and adjustment cost literatures, and the first order conditions for a utility maximizing decision maker are rearranged into intertemporal arbitrage equations that are similar in spirit to traditional finance models. The common assumptions that land and capital are quasi-fixed...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Arbitrage; Adjustment Costs; Farmland; Asset Pricing; Capital; Cost Function; Risk; Production; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56412
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STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT BEHAVIOR: WHAT CAN UTILITY FUNCTIONS TELL US? AgEcon
Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip.
The validity of the utility concept, particularly in an expected utility framework, has been questioned because of its inability to predict revealed behavior. In this paper we focus on the global shape of the utility function instead of the local shape of the utility function. We examine the extent of heterogeneity in the global shape of the utility function of decision makers and test whether its shape predicts strategic risk management behavior. We assess the utility functions and relate them to strategic decisions for portfolio managers (N = 104) and hog farmers (N = 239). The research design allows us to examine the robustness of our results and the extent to which the results can be generalized. Furthermore, we assess the shape of the utility...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20388
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IDENTIFICATION OF ECONOMIES OF SCOPE IN A STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION ENVIRONMENT AgEcon
Curtis, Rita E.; Sarmiento, Camilo.
This paper extends the definition of economies of scope to multioutput firms that face an uncertain production environment. Identification of economies of scope in this environment, however, requires separability assumptions on the technology. These identification restrictions are demonstrated in the paper, and for each identification restriction the definition of economies of scope is generalized to the case of uncertain production and risk aversion.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Production Risk; Multioutput; Production; Identification; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23676
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The Structural Estimation of Principal-Agent Models by Least Squares: Evidence from Land Rental Markets in Madagascar (PowerPoint) AgEcon
Brown, Zachary S.; Bellemare, Marc F..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Modeling; Least squares; Madagascar; Land rental markets; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48908
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Securitizing peanut production risk with catastrophe (CAT) bonds AgEcon
Epperson, James E..
A catastrophe (CAT) bond is designed for peanut production as a means of transferring natural disaster risks from insurance purveyors to the global capital market. The CAT bond so designed is priced using state-level historical yields for peanut production in the southern part of the United States in the State of Georgia. The index triggering the CAT bond contract was based on percent deviation from state average yield. The principal finding of the study is that it appears feasible for crop insurance purveyors to issue insurance-linked securities. CAT bonds can reduce the variance of the loss ratio when issued optimally with regard to the number of bonds and contract specifications. CAT bonds could therefore be used in hedging catastrophic risk effectively...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Insurance; Reinsurance; Pricing; Hedging; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44512
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THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN PRODUCER MARKETING AND RISK MANAGEMENT AgEcon
Dial, Joseph B..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19576
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Measuring Technical Efficiency of Dairy Farms with Imprecise Data: A Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis Approach AgEcon
Mugera, Amin W..
This article integrates fuzzy set theory in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework to compute technical efficiency scores when input and output data are imprecise. The underlying assumption in convectional DEA is that inputs and outputs data are measured with precision. However, production agriculture takes place in an uncertain environment and, in some situations, input and output data may be imprecise. We present an approach of measuring efficiency when data is known to lie within specified intervals and empirically illustrate this approach using a group of 34 dairy producers in Pennsylvania. Compared to the convectional DEA scores that are point estimates, the computed fuzzy efficiency scores allow the decision maker to trace the performance of a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Fuzzy set theory; Data Envelopment Analysis; Membership function; Α-cut level; Technical efficiency; Farm Management; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; Q12; C02; C44; C61.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103251
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Alternative Model Selection Using Forecast Error Variance Decompositions in Wholesale Chicken Markets AgEcon
McKenzie, Andrew M.; Goodwin, Harold L., Jr.; Carreira, Rita I..
Although Vector Autoregressive models are commonly used to forecast prices, specification of these models remains an issue. Questions that arise include choice of variables and lag length. This article examines the use of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions to guide the econometrician’s model specification. Forecasting performance of Variance Autoregressive models, generated from Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, is analyzed within wholesale chicken markets. Results show that the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition approach has the potential to provide superior model selections to traditional Granger Causality tests.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Broiler markets; DAGs; Forecasting; Market structure; VAR; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C53; D4; L1; Q00.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48750
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Model Validation: An Overview with some Emphasis on Risk Models AgEcon
McCarl, Bruce A..
Model validation is a topic which has a long history in the literature This article attempts to focus much of the previous discussion upon agricultural economics models. True model validation is not possible. Nevertheless, model validation exercises improve the relevancy of models and strengthen the theoretical oasis for modelling. Procedures are given for conducting validation exercises and for dealing with models which fail such exercises. In addition. comments appear on considerations involved with the validation of risk models.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12282
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Management decisions on commercial sugarcane farms in KwaZulu-Natal: a focus on choice bracketing behaviour for risk management AgEcon
MacNicol, R.; Ortmann, Gerald F.; Ferrer, Stuart R.D..
The sugar industry is an important contributor to the South African (SA) economy, with average annual production estimated at 2.5 million tons of sugar. This study aims to quantify actual use of management instruments by a sample of commercial sugarcane farmers in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) that are commonly associated with risk management, and uses factor analysis to investigate the extent to which these farmers bracket their management decisions. Data were obtained in 2006 via personal interviews of a stratified random sample of 76 large-scale sugarcane farmers in two separate mill-supply areas of KZN. Respondents were asked questions regarding risk-related management strategies, including diversification of on-farm enterprises, investments and management time....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Commercial sugarcane farms; KwaZulu-Natal; Choice bracketing behaviour; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5971
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Scorecarding and Heat Mapping: Tools and Concepts for Assessing Strategic Uncertainty AgEcon
Detre, Joshua D.; Briggeman, Brian C.; Boehlje, Michael; Gray, Allan W..
The dramatic changes occurring throughout the agriculture industry are creating new and different uncertainties that result from a turbulent business climate. The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to understand, assess and evaluate, and manage strategic uncertainty. The approach is to present a mental model that frames assessment of strategic uncertainty from a potential and exposure perspective. Scorecarding and heat mapping assessment tools operationalize the mental model. Participants in an executive agribusiness educational workshop applied this mental model and the assessment tools to one of three hypothetical seed companies. The participants then provided an evaluation of the usefulness and effectiveness of uncertainty scorecarding...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Scorecarding; Strategic uncertainty; Heat mapping; Potential; Exposure; Likelihood; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8207
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NAREA Awards AgEcon
NAREA Outstanding Master's Thesis Award, NAREA Master's Thesis Award of Merit, NAREA Distinguished Member Awards, NAREA Award for Outstanding Public Service Through Economics, and NAREA's Journal Article of the Year for 2008
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Political Economy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55555
Registros recuperados: 1,657
Primeira ... 757677787980818283 ... Última
 

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