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Registros recuperados: 31
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The WITCH Model. Structure, Baseline, Solutions AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
WITCH – World Induced Technical Change Hybrid – is a regionally disaggregated hard-link hybrid global model with a neoclassical optimal growth structure (top-down) and a detailed energy input component (bottom-up). The model endogenously accounts for technological change, both through learning curves that affect the prices of new vintages of capital and through R&D investments. The model features the main economic and environmental policies in each world region as the outcome of a dynamic game. WITCH belongs to the class of Integrated Assessment Models as it possesses a climate module that feeds climate changes back into the economy. Although the model’s main features are discussed elsewhere (Bosetti et al., 2006), here we provide a more thorough...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12064
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Delayed Action and Uncertain Targets. How Much Will Climate Policy Cost? AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus about the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement effective mitigation strategies, at least in the short-term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that some, if not all countries, will delay the adoption of effective climate policies. This delay will affect the cost of future policy measures that will be required to abate an even larger amount of emissions. What additional economic cost of mitigation measures will this delay imply? At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding the global stabilisation target to be...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Climate Policy; Stabilisation Costs; Delayed Action; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44219
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Uncertain R&D, Backstop Technology and GHGs Stabilization AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses optimal investments in innovation when dealing with a stringent climate target and with the uncertain effectiveness of R&D. The innovation needed to achieve the deep cut in emissions is modelled by a backstop carbon-free technology whose cost depends on R&D investments. To better represent the process of technological progress, we assume that R&D effectiveness is uncertain. By means of a simple analytical model, we show how accounting for the uncertainty that characterizes technological advancement yields higher investments in innovation and lower policy costs. We then confirm the results via a numerical analysis performed with a stochastic version of WITCH, an energy-economy-climate model. The results stress the importance...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12048
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Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Longden, Thomas.
With a focus on establishing whether climate targets can be met under different personal transport scenarios we introduce a transport sector representing the use and profile of light domestic vehicles (LDVs) into the integrated assessment model WITCH. In doing so we develop long term projections of light domestic vehicle use and define potential synergies between innovation in the transportation sector and the energy sector. By modelling the demand for LDVs, the use of fuels, and the types of vehicles introduced we can analyse the potential impacts on the whole economy. We find that with large increases in the use of vehicles in many regions around the globe, the electrification of LDVs is important in achieving cost effective climate targets and...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Light Duty Vehicles; Transportation; Climate Change Policy; Electric Drive Vehicles; Research and Development; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q54; R41; O3.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121948
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Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo; Carraro, Carlo.
This paper builds on the assumption that OECD countries are (or will soon be) taking actions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These actions, however, will not be sufficient to control global warming, unless developing countries also get involved in the cooperative effort to reduce GHG emissions. This paper investigates the best short-term strategies that emerging economies can adopt in reacting to OECD countries’ mitigation effort, given the common long-term goal to prevent excessive warming without hampering economic growth. Results indicate that developing countries would incur substantial economic losses by following a myopic strategy that disregards climate in the short-run, and that their optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Energy-economy Modeling; Climate Policy; Developing Countries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54; Q55; Q43.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52541
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International Energy R&D Spillovers and the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Stabilization AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
It is widely recognized that technological change has the potential to reduce GHG emissions without compromising economic growth; hence, any better understanding of the process of technological innovation is likely to increase our knowledge of mitigation possibilities and costs. This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy technical change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Energy R&D; International R&D Spillovers; Stabilization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8217
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The Role of R&D and Technology Diffusion in Climate Change Mitigation: New Perspectives Using the Witch Model AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Duval, Romain; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper uses the WITCH model, a computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technological change, to explore the impact of various climate policies on energy technology choices and the costs of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. Current and future expected carbon prices appear to have powerful effects on R&D spending and clean technology diffusion. Their impact on stabilisation costs depends on the nature of R&D: R&D targeted at incremental energy efficiency improvements has only limited effects, but R&D focused on the emergence of major new low-carbon technologies could lower costs drastically if successful – especially in the non-electricity sector, where such low-carbon options are scarce today. With emissions coming...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Energy R&D; Fund; Stabilisation costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3; H4; O3; Q32; Q43; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50363
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The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Catenacci, Michela; Fiorese, Giulia; Verdolini, Elena.
In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Expert Elicitation; Research; Development and Demonstration; Solar Technologies; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q42; Q55.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121699
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Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Lubowski, Ruben N.; Golub, Alexander; Markandya, Anil.
Discussions over tropical deforestation are currently at the forefront of climate change policy negotiations at national, regional, and international levels. This paper analyzes the effects of linking Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) to a global market for greenhouse gas emission reductions. We supplement a global climate-energy-economy model with alternative cost estimates for reducing deforestation emissions in order to examine a global program for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppmv of CO2 equivalent. Introducing REDD reduces global forestry emissions through 2050 by 20-22% in the Brazil-only case and by 64-88% in the global REDD scenarios. At the same time, REDD lowers the total costs of the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Carbon market; Climate change; Innovation; Mitigation; Policy costs; Offsets; Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD); Technological change; Tropical deforestation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q23; Q24; Q42; Q52; Q54; Q55.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52544
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The Incentives to Participate in, and the Stability of, International Climate Coalitions: A Game-theoretic Analysis Using the Witch Model AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Duval, Romain; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper uses WITCH, an integrated assessment model with a game-theoretic structure, to explore the prospects for, and the stability of broad coalitions to achieve ambitious climate change mitigation action. Only coalitions including all large emitting regions are found to be technically able to meet a concentration stabilisation target below 550 ppm CO2eq by 2100. Once the free-riding incentives of non-participants are taken into account, only a “grand coalition” including virtually all regions can be successful. This grand coalition is profitable as a whole, implying that all countries can gain from participation provided appropriate transfers are made across them. However, neither the grand coalition nor smaller but still environmentally significant...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; C72; D58; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54281
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Abatement Cost Uncertainty and Policy Instrument Selection under a Stringent Climate Policy. A Dynamic Analysis AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Golub, Alexander; Markandya, Anil; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper investigates the relative economic and environmental outcomes of price versus quantity mechanisms to control GHG emissions when abatement costs are uncertain. In particular, we evaluate the impacts on policy costs, CO2 emissions and energy R&D for a stringent mitigation target of 550 ppmv CO2 equivalent (i.e. 450 for CO2 only) concentrations. The analysis is performed in an optimal growth framework via Monte Carlo simulations of the integrated assessment model WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid). Results indicate that the price instrument stochastically dominates the quantity instrument when a stringent stabilization policy is in place.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Abatement Costs; Climate Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; H2; C6; Q5.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6383
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Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Frankel, Jeffrey.
Replaced with revised version of paper 10/05/11.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Cancun; Climate; Concentrations; Cooperation; Copenhagen; Costs; Developing Countries; Development; Emissions; Equity; Global Climate; Global Warming; Greenhouse Gas; Human Development; International; Kyoto; Sustainable; Treaty; United Nations; WITCH; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115849
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Delayed Participation of Developing Countries to Climate Agreements: Should Action in the EU and US be Postponed? AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses the cost implications for climate policy in developed countries if developing countries are unwilling to adopt measures to reduce their own GHG emissions. First, we assume that a 450 CO2 (550 CO2e) ppmv stabilisation target is to be achieved and that Non Annex1 (NA1) countries decide to delay their GHG emission reductions by 30 years. What would be the cost difference between this scenario and a case in which both developed and developing countries start reducing their emissions at the same time? Then, we look at a scenario in which the timing of developing countries’ participation is uncertain and again we compute the costs of climate policy in developed and developing countries. We find that delayed participation of NA1 countries has...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Delayed Action; Climate Policy; Stabilisation Costs; Uncertain Participation; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44220
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Banking Permits: Economic Efficiency and Distributional Effects AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele.
Most analyses of the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms focus on the cost effectiveness of “where” flexibility (e.g. by showing that mitigation costs are lower in a global permit market than in regional markets or in permit markets confined to Annex 1 countries). Less attention has been devoted to “when” flexibility, i.e. to the benefits of allowing emission permit traders to bank their permits for future use. In the model presented in this paper, banking of carbon allowances in a global permit market is fully endogenised, i.e. agents may decide to bank permits by taking into account their present and future needs and the present and future decisions of all the other agents. It is therefore possible to identify under what conditions traders find it optimal to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Emission Trading; Banking; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6362
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Modelling Economic Impacts of Alternative International Climate Policy Architectures. A Quantitative and Comparative Assessment of Architectures for Agreement AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper provides a quantitative comparison of the main architectures for an agreement on climate policy. Possible successors to the Kyoto protocol are assessed according to four criteria: economic efficiency; environmental effectiveness; distributional implications; and their political acceptability which is measured in terms of feasibility and enforceability. The ultimate aim is to derive useful information for designing a future agreement on climate change control.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Integrated Modelling; International Agreements; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; H23; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44535
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Incentives and Stability of International Climate Coalitions: An Integrated Assessment AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper analyses the incentives to participate in and the stability of international climate coalitions. Using the integrated assessment model WITCH, the analysis of coalitions’ profitability and stability is performed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the social welfare aggregator and the extent of climate damages. We focus on the profitability, stability, and “potential stability” of a number of coalitions which are “potentially effective” in reducing emissions. We find that only the grand coalition under a specific sets of assumptions finds it optimal to stabilise GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO2-eq. However, the grand coalition is found not to be stable, not even “potentially stable” even through an...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; C72; D58; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120048
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Benchmarking in Tourism Destination, Keeping in Mind the Sustainable Paradigm AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Cassinelli, Mariaester; Lanza, Alessandro.
Tourism destination benchmarking and the assessment of tourism management performances are a crucial and challenging task in the direction of evaluating tourism sustainability and reshaping tourism activities. However, assessing tourism management efficiency per se may not provide enough information concerning long-term performances, which is what sustainability is about. Natural resources management should therefore be included in the analysis to provide a more exhaustive picture of long-run sustainable efficiency and tourism performances. Indeed, while the environmental endowment of a site is a key feature in tourism destination comparison, what really matters is its effective management. Therefore, in this paper we assess and compare tourism...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12156
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The 2008 WITCH Model: New Model Features and Baseline AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; De Cian, Enrica; Sgobbi, Alessandra; Tavoni, Massimo.
WITCH is an energy-economy-climate model developed by the climate change group at FEEM. The model has been extensively used in the past 3 years for the economic analysis of climate change policies. WITCH is a hybrid top-down economic model with a representation of the energy sector of medium complexity. Two distinguishing features of the WITCH model are the representation of endogenous technological change and the game–theoretic set-up. Technological change is driven by innovation and diffusion processes, both of which feature international spillovers. World countries are grouped in 12 regions which interact with each other in a setting of strategic interdependence. This paper describes the updating of the base year data to 2005 and some new features: the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Hybrid Modelling; Integrated Assessment; Technological Change; Environmental Economics and Policy; O33; O41; Q43.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55284
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What Should We Expect from Innovation? A Model-Based Assessment of the Environmental and Mitigation Cost Implications of Climate-Related R&D AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Duval, Romain; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper addresses two basic issues related to technological innovation and climate stabilisation objectives: i) Can innovation policies be effective in stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations? ii) To what extent can innovation policies complement carbon pricing (taxes or permit trading) and improve the economic efficiency of a mitigation policy package? To answer these questions, we use an integrated assessment model with multiple externalities and an endogenous representation of technical progress in the energy sector. We evaluate a range of innovation policies, both as a stand-alone instrument and in combination with other mitigation policies. Even under fairly optimistic assumptions about the funding available for, and the returns to R&D, our...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Environmental Policy; Energy R&D Fund; Stabilisation Costs; Environmental Economics and Policy; H0; H2; H3; H4; O3; Q32; Q43; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60745
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Accounting for Uncertainty Affecting Technical Change in an Economic-Climate Model AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Drouet, Laurent.
The key role of technological change in the decline of energy and carbon intensities of aggregate economic activities is widely recognized. This has focused attention on the issue of developing endogenous models for the evolution of technological change. With a few exceptions this is done using a deterministic framework, even though technological change is a dynamic process which is uncertain by nature. Indeed, the two main vectors through which technological change may be conceptualized, learning through R&D investments and learning-by-doing, both evolve and cumulate in a stochastic manner. How misleading are climate strategies designed without accounting for such uncertainty? The main idea underlying the present piece of research is to assess and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12143
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