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Registros recuperados: 35
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LOOKING FOR GOVERNMENT'S ROLE AS AN AGRICULTURAL SAFETY NET AgEcon
Dorfman, Jeffrey H..
What makes agriculture especially deserving of an active government safety net? What is different about agricultural production? Are we concerned about a safe and reliable food supply or about farmers' incomes and returns to assets? Those who make farm policy base their arguments on all of these points: the diffuse nature of agricultural production, the inherent production risk in agriculture, the need for a safe and reliable food supply, shortcomings in farm income, and low returns to assets in agriculture. This paper addresses these points and, in so doing, rules out some of these concerns as legitimate bases for current agricultural policies. By focusing on those that are genuine, U.S. farm policy could spend limited resources in areas where the most...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Farm income; Farm-sector safety net; Market power; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14707
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MULTIPLE COMPARISONS WITH THE BEST: BAYESIAN PRECISION MEASURES OF EFFICIENCY RANKINGS AgEcon
Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Atkinson, Scott E..
A large literature exists on measuring the allocative and technical efficiency of a set of firms. A segment of this literature uses data envelopment analysis (DEA), creating relative efficiency rankings that are nonstochastic and thus cannot be evaluated according to the precision of the rankings. A parallel literature uses econometric techniques to estimate stochastic production frontiers or distance functions, providing at least the possibility of computing the precision of the resulting efficiency rankings. Recently, Horrace and Schmidt (2000) have applied sampling theoretic statistical techniques known as multiple comparisons with control (MCC) and multiple comparisons with the best (MCB) to the issue of measuring the precision of efficiency rankings....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19800
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ESTUARY MANAGEMENT AND RECREATIONAL FISHING BENEFITS AgEcon
Bergstrom, John C.; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Loomis, John B..
Recognition of the benefits to society supported by estuary ecosystem functions and services, and threats to these benefits posed by human activities, has led to various public programs to restore and protect estuaries and the federal, state and local levels. As available budgets shrink, program administrators and public elected officials struggle to allocate limited restoration and protection funds to the highest priority areas. Economic benefit and cost information can provide useful inputs into this decision-making process by quantifying estuary restoration and protection benefits and costs in commensurate terms. In this paper, a combined actual and intended travel behavior model is described that can be applied to estimate the recreational fishing...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16694
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MEASURING AN ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM WITH GENERALIZED FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES AgEcon
Poray, Michael C.; Foster, Kenneth A.; Dorfman, Jeffrey H..
Structural change in meat consumption has been the focus of many researchers during the last two decades. In this paper we develop a dynamic linear Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model from a cost function that allows for time varying parameters. This model is consistent with inertia in the parameters of the cost and indirect utility functions. It allows for persistent preferences which may arise from cultural biases, lifestyles, peer pressure, etc. An empirical application is conducted with US meat consumption and price data using a generalized system of flexible least squares, Generalized Flexible Least Squares (GFLS). GFLS allows parameters to evolve slowly over time through incorporating of penalties in fluctuations. Estimated quarterly...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28672
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ECONOMIC CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS AgEcon
Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; McIntosh, Christopher S..
Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices. Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived. The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Commodity prices; Forecast evaluation; Value of information; Consumer/Household Economics.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15060
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Evaluating the Impact of Government Land Use Policies on Tree Canopy Coverage AgEcon
Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Hill, Elizabeth; Kramer, Elizabeth.
Many communities are experiencing the negative effects associated with not sustaining a sufficient level of tree canopy coverage. Tree canopy plays a crucial role in the environment, providing benefits such as clean water and air, erosion prevention, climate control, and sustained ecological resources and native species habitat. Additionally, tree canopy plays an economic role by increasing housing values, alleviating expenditures related to erosion destruction, decreasing spending on sewer standards, increasing energy efficiency, and reducing medical costs related to health issues, such as asthma, that are associated with environmental degradation. To study how local government policies may be related to changes in tree canopy, an empirical study was...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9863
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PUTTING THE "ECON" INTO ECONOMETRICS AgEcon
Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; McIntosh, Christopher S..
Should econometricians always incorporate economic theory in their models or only when unrestricted estimators are found to violate an inviolable theory? Using Monte Carlo experiments, we find that econometricians should use economic theory to the fullest extent possible. To paraphrase Leamer's classic article, we should put the "econ" into econometrics.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20874
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Are High-Tech Employment and Natural Amenities Linked?: Answers from a Smoothed Bayesian Spatial Model AgEcon
Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Patridge, Mark D.; Galloway, Hamilton.
We investigate the recently advanced theory that high-technology workers are drawn to high amenity locations and then the high-technology jobs follow the workers. Using a novel data set that tracks high-technology job growth by U.S. county, we estimate spatial parameters of the response of job growth to the level of local natural amenities. We achieve this estimation with a reasonably new class of models, smooth coefficient models. The model is employed in a spatial setting to allow for smooth, but nonparametric response functions to key variables in an otherwise standard regression model. With spatial data this allows for flexible modeling such as a unique place-specific effects to be estimated for each location, and also for the responses to key...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bayesian econometrics; Employment growth; High technology; Smooth coefficient models; Spatial modeling.; Labor and Human Capital; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6459
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Improving Forecast Performance with Reduced Parameter, Large Order AR Models AgEcon
Ramirez, Octavio A.; Dorfman, Jeffrey H..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Time series; Modelling; Bayesian probability; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60917
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Do Farmers Hedge Optimally or by Habit? A Bayesian Partial-Adjustment Model of Farmer Hedging AgEcon
Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Karali, Berna.
Hedging is one of the most important risk management decisions that farmers make and has a potentially large role in the level of profit eventually earned from farming. Using panel data from a survey of Georgia farmers that recorded their hedging decisions for four years on three crops we examine the role of habit, demographics, farm characteristics, and information sources on the hedging decisions made by 106 different farmers. We find that the role of habit varies widely. Information sources are shown to have significant and large effects on the chosen hedge ratios. The farmer's education level, attitude toward technology adoption, farm profitability, and the ratio of acres owned to acres farmed also play important roles in hedging decisions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bayesian econometrics; Hedging decisions; Habit formation; Information sources; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37596
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Generalized Hedge Ratio Estimation with an Unknown Model AgEcon
Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Sanders, Dwight R..
Myers and Thompson (1989) noted that the model specification could have a large impact on the hedge ratio estimated. A huge literature exists on estimating hedge ratios, but the literature is lacking a formal treatment of model specification uncertainty. This research accomplishes that task by taking a Bayesian approach to hedge ratio estimation, where specification uncertainty is explicitly modeled. The methodology is applied to data on hedging of corn and soybeans and on cross-hedging of corn oil using soybean oil futures. Results show the potential benefits and insights gained from such an approach.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19268
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TARGET MARKETS FOR RETAIL OUTLETS OF LANDSCAPE PLANTS AgEcon
Turner, Steven C.; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Fletcher, Stanley M..
Merchandisers of landscape plants can increase the effectiveness of their marketing strategies by identifying target markets. Using a full information maximum likelihood tobit procedure on a system of three equations, target markets for different types of retail outlets in Georgia were identified. The results lend support and empirical evidence to the premise that different retail outlet types have different target markets and thus should develop different market strategies. The estimated target markets are identified and possible marketing strategies suitable for each type of retail outlet are suggested.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29922
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OPTIMAL MARKETING DECISIONS FOR FEEDER CATTLE UNDER PRICE AND PRODUCTION RISK AgEcon
Wang, Xuecai; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; McKissick, John C.; Turner, Steven C..
In many parts of the U.S., beef cattle production is a large sector of the agricultural economy, yet few of the cattle are stockered; instead the production is focused on cow-calf operations only. Restricting their operation to only the first phase of beef production may be limiting the cattle owners' profit potential. This paper examines the opportunities for operators to earn additional profit from stockering cattle. Using a representative risk-averse producer, a decision set with seven possible marketing strategies is elevated for the optimal decision in a Bayesian framework which allows for price and production risk. We find that in many instances retaining the cattle for stockering is a superior decision when done in conjunction with specific...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cattle; Decision science; Estimation risk; Marketing; Livestock Production/Industries; C6; D2; Q1.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15442
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Optimal Reserve and Export Policies for the California Almond Industry : Theory, Econometrics, and Simulations AgEcon
Alston, Julian M.; Carman, Hoy F.; Christian, Jason E.; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Murua, Juan-Ramon; Sexton, Richard J..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11937
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SPATIAL COMPETITION AND PRICING IN THE AGRICULTURAL CHEMICAL INDUSTRY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM GEORGIA AgEcon
Hall, R. Lee; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Gunter, Lewell F..
Three models of spatial competition are tested on retail price data for the agricultural chemical industry. Three empirical tests find no evidence of any spatial competition using data from sixty-five retailers and twelve different chemicals. Demand and supply-side variables have statistically significant, but economically trivial impacts on retail chemical prices. These results point to a virtually complete control of retail prices by the chemical manufacturers, likely through the rebate program they offer retailers. The oligopoly structure of the chemical manufacturing industry makes such control possible. The results suggest that consolidation of retailers or distributors will not have anti-competitive effects since price competition is essentially...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural chemicals; Market power; Spatial competition; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18984
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Targeted and Global Export Subsidies and Welfare Impacts AgEcon
Bohman, Mary; Carter, Colin A.; Dorfman, Jeffrey H..
A three-country model of export subsidies is developed with an exporter, an importer, and a third country, representing the rest of the world, that can act on either side of the market. The welfare effect of an export subsidy targeted toward one importing country is shown to depend on whether the third country is an exporter or an importer, the market shares, and demand elasticities. The possibility of the paradoxical result that the targeted country can lose welfare as a result of receiving a subsidy is demonstrated to exist, and conditions are derived that determine when this result occurs. It is also demonstrated that when the rest of the world is a net exporter, a country offering a targeted export subsidy will suffer a welfare loss, while either its...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1988 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51251
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VALUING RISK-REDUCING INTERVENTIONS WITH HEDONIC MODELS: THE CASE OF EROSION PROTECTION AgEcon
Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Keeler, Andrew G.; Kriesel, Warren.
This article extends the literature on economic valuation of public interventions that reduce environmental risk. We consider the case where risk-reducing interventions have different characteristics than the risk proxies used in hedonic regressions. We then demonstrate the importance of these considerations by reexamining an existing analysis of shoreline protection where we estimate risk using a latent variables model. The results show substantially different and arguably more plausible results.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31001
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MEASURING AN ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM WITH GENERALIZED FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES AgEcon
Poray, Michael C.; Foster, Kenneth A.; Dorfman, Jeffrey H..
Structural change in meat consumption has been the focus of many researchers during the last two decades. In this paper we develop a dynamic linear Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model from a cost function that allows for time varying parameters. This model is consistent with inertia in the parameters of the cost and indirect utility functions. It allows for persistent preferences which may arise from cultural biases, lifestyles, peer pressure, etc. An empirical application is conducted with US meat consumption and price data using a generalized system of flexible least squares, Generalized Flexible Least Squares (GFLS). GFLS allows parameters to evolve slowly over time through incorporating of penalties in fluctuations. Estimated quarterly...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21796
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Do Inventory and Time-to-Delivery Effects Vary Across Futures Contracts? Insights from a Smoothed Bayesian Estimator AgEcon
Karali, Berna; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Thurman, Walter N..
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/15/08.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Volatility; Theory of storage; Futures markets; Bayesian econometrics; Lumber; Marketing.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6084
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AN ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF COTTON AND PEANUT RESEARCH IN SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AgEcon
Smith, Anna Rickett; Dorfman, Jeffrey H..
The purpose of this study was to utilize the economic surplus framework for evaluating the impact of investment in agricultural research. The economic impact measures used in this study were the total benefits and distribution of those benefits associated with investment in agricultural research. These results were used to calculate an internal rate of return on the investments. The focus of the research was on cotton and peanuts in the Southeast region of the United States. Two equations were estimated to determine the impacts of the money being spent on the research efforts of these two commodities. The results revealed positive benefits to consumers and producers exceeded the investment amount in each year for both commodities in the period. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19900
Registros recuperados: 35
Primeira ... 12 ... Última
 

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