SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fuller, Frank H.; Matthey, Holger; Tokgoz, Simla; Wailes, Eric J..

Following a historical agreement on the EU enlargement, 10 new member states (NMS) acceded to the European Union on May 1, 2004. Although the European Union has expanded its membership in the past, this enlargement is unique in terms of its scope and diversity of the countries, area, and population involved. Thus, the effects of the EU enlargement on current and future member countries and on world commodity markets require careful consideration as the European Union is a major player in these markets. We analyze the effects of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform and enlargement on the EU-15, the NMS, and world agricultural markets. We compare three 10-year comprehensive agricultural outlook scenarios. In a "pre-enlargement" scenario, all...

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

Palavras-chave: CAP reform; Common Agricultural Policy; EU enlargement; European agriculture; New Member States; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18393

Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome.

We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q18; Q38.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53093

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets

Elobeid, Amani E.; Beghin, John C..

We analyze the removal of current market interventions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. We analyze the impact of trade liberalization and the removal of production subsidies and consumption distortions. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27 percent price increase by the end of the decade relative to the baseline level for sugar. The removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48 percent price increase by the end of the outlook period. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns are substantially affected. Protectionist countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)...

Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20045

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla.

We analyze the sensitivity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change to modifications in assumptions concerning crop area, yield, and deforestation. For this purpose, we run a modified version of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Agricultural Outlook Model, which was used previously to assess the impacts of energy price increases and biofuel policy changes on land conversion. To calculate the GHG implications of agricultural activity, we use GreenAgSiM, a model developed to evaluate emissions from land conversion and agricultural production. Both models are applied to scenarios that lead to higher US ethanol production. The results are contrasted with the findings of Searchinger et al., and we explain the role of model...

An Analysis of the Link between Ethanol, Energy, and Crop Markets

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; Crop yield; Greenhouse gas emissions; Indirect land-use change.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51945

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/06/06.

Global Biofuel Expansion and the Demand for Brazilian Land: Intensification versus Expansion

Palavras-chave: Agricultural markets; Energy; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18453

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F..

We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and to analyze the impact of biofuel expansion and policies on both Brazilian and world agriculture. We evaluate two scenarios in which we introduce a 25% exogenous increase in the global demand for ethanol and one scenario in which we increase global ethanol demand by 50%. We then analyze the impact of these increases in terms of land-use change and commodity price changes particularly in Brazil. In the first...

Removing Distortions in the U.S. Ethanol Market: What Does It Imply for the United States and Brazil?

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Brazil; Land use; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103798

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla.

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization and removal of the federal tax credit in the United States on U.S. and Brazilian ethanol markets using a multi-market international ethanol model calibrated on 2005 market data and policies. The removal of trade distortions induces a 23.9 percent increase in the price of world ethanol on average between 2006 and 2015 relative to the baseline. The U.S. domestic ethanol price decreases by 13.6 percent, which results in a 7.2 percent decline in production and a 3.8 percent increase in consumption. The lower domestic price leads to a 3.7 percent rise in the share of fuel ethanol in gasoline consumption. U.S. net ethanol imports increase by 199 percent. Brazil responds to the higher world ethanol price by increasing...

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets (Revised)

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Trade liberalization; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; F13; F17; Q17; Q18; Q42.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9808

Elobeid, Amani E.; Beghin, John C..

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization, removal of production subsidies, and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase by 2011/12 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist OECD countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and significant contraction in production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries...

Modeling the Effects of Pasture Expansion on Emissions from Land-Use Change

Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Doha; Domestic subsidies; Sugar; Trade liberalization; WTO; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18604

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti.

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/14/2010.

Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels

Palavras-chave: Pasture expansion; Greenhouse gas emissions; Land-use change; Pasture extensification; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q15; Q17; Q18; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57262

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Dumortier, Jerome; Rosas, Francisco.

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world...

Evaluating the Production and Price Impacts of Biotechnology Application in Crop Markets

Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Energy price; Ethanol tax credit; Fertilizer; Partial equilibrium model; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107043

Brookes, Graham; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

Biotechnology crop traits have been applied on a widespread commercial global basis since 1996, making it the most rapidly adopted crop technology in agriculture. The primary biotechnologies used have included technology delivering herbicide tolerance and insect resistance for crops, such as corn, soybeans, cotton, and canola. This technology has provided farmers with productivity improvements through a combination of yield improvements and cost reductions. Thus, this technology has had an impact on prices of cereals and oilseeds (and their derivatives) both in countries where biotech traits were applied and in the global market. Realizing the surging significance of biotechnology application in global crop markets, this study first summarizes the...

World Market Impacts of High Biofuel Use in the European Union

Palavras-chave: Biotech crops; Prices; Yield; Soybeans; Corn; Canola; Partial-equilibrium model; Price effects; Demand and Price Analysis; Productivity Analysis.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61164

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen.

This study examines the world market impact of an expansion in the biofuel sector in the European Union with particular focus on indirect land-use impacts. In the first scenario, an increase of 1 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) of wheat ethanol use in the European Union expands world land area used in agricultural commodity production by 366,000 hectares, representing an increase of 0.039% in total area. In the second scenario, an increase of 1 Mtoe of rapeseed oil biodiesel use in the European Union expands world land area by 352,000 hectares, representing an increase of 0.038% in total area. With additional land use somewhat close between the two scenarios, the main difference is the spatial distribution of the sources of additional supply. Because...

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Land use; Partial equilibrium model; Rapeseed oil biodiesel scenario; Wheat ethanol scenario.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91923

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market multi-commodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates the tradeoffs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China, EU, and India, and compute shock multipliers for...

Removal of U.S. Ethanol Domestic and Trade Distortions: Impact on U.S. and Brazilian Ethanol Markets

Palavras-chave: Acreage; Area; Biofuel; Corn; Crops; Ethanol; FAPRI model; Feedstock; Land; Sugar; Sugarcane; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q42; Q17; Q15.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6183

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla.

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/06/06.

The Impact of Trade Barriers on Mandated Biofuel Consumption in Canada

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Trade liberalization; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18364

Le Roy, Danny G.; Elobeid, Amani E.; Klein, Kurt K..

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Biofuel ethanol trade Canada; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54973

The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Hart, Chad E..

Replaced with revised version of paper 11/17/06.

Understanding the Underlying Fundamentals of Ethanol Markets: Linkages between Energy and Agriculture

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Commodity markets; Corn price; Energy markets; Ethanol; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18290

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

This study analyzes the impact of price shocks in three input and output markets critical to ethanol: gasoline, corn, and sugar. We investigate the impact of these shocks on ethanol and related agricultural markets in the United States and Brazil. We find that the composition of a country's vehicle fleet determines the direction of the response of ethanol consumption to changes in the gasoline price. We also find that a change in feedstock costs affects the profitability of ethanol producers and the domestic ethanol price. In Brazil, where two commodities compete for sugarcane, changes in the sugar market affect the competing ethanol market.