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| Registros recuperados: 91 | |
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| Mason, Chuck; Hayes, Dermot J.; Lence, Sergio H.. |
| The present study estimates the probability density function of the Federal Risk Management Agency's (RMA) net income from reinsuring crop insurance for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Based on 1997 data, it is estimated that there is a 5 percent probability that RMA will need to reimburse at least $1 billion to insurance companies, and that the fair value of RMA's reinsurance services to insurance firms equals $78.7 million. In addition, various hedging strategies are examined for their potential to reduce RMA's reinsurance risk. The risk reduction achievable by hedging is appreciable, but use of derivative contracts alone is clearly no panacea. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18481 |
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| Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome. |
| We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Biofuel; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q18; Q38. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53093 |
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| Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla. |
| We analyze the sensitivity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change to modifications in assumptions concerning crop area, yield, and deforestation. For this purpose, we run a modified version of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Agricultural Outlook Model, which was used previously to assess the impacts of energy price increases and biofuel policy changes on land conversion. To calculate the GHG implications of agricultural activity, we use GreenAgSiM, a model developed to evaluate emissions from land conversion and agricultural production. Both models are applied to scenarios that lead to higher US ethanol production. The results are contrasted with the findings of Searchinger et al., and we explain the role of model... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Biofuel; Crop yield; Greenhouse gas emissions; Indirect land-use change.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51945 |
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| Monchuk, Daniel C.; Miranowski, John A.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.. |
| In this paper we examine more closely some of the forces that underlie economic growth at the county level. In an effort to describe a much more comprehensive regional economic growth model, we address a variety of different growth hypotheses by introducing a large number of growth related variables. When formulating our hypotheses and specifying our growth model we make liberal use of GIS mapping software to "paint" a picture of where growth spots exist and why. Our empirical estimation indicates amenities, state and local tax burdens, population, amount of agricultural activity, and demographics have important economic growth impacts. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20369 |
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| Du, Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.. |
| This paper assesses the roles of various factors influencing the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The main results are as follows. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining oil price variation. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, a negative correlation between price and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Gibbs sampling; Merton jump; Leverage effect; Stochastic volatility.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50073 |
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| Babcock, Bruce A.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Griffin, Steven C.. |
| Building on recent work by Mirand and Glauber (1997), this report shows that it is feasible to use exchange-based contracts as a substitute for the Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA). The contract we analyze here is a Group Revenue Contract, which would allow producers to guarantee against reductions in county-level revenues. The insurance company would then purchase put options on an exchange-based revenue contract to protect against statewide revenue shortfalls. The analysis suggests that this reinsurance tool would eliminate most though not all of the systemic risk associated with this product. The insurance company would have to purchase supplemental reinsurance to complement the exchange-based product, but the level of reinsurance needed would not... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Exchange-based revenue; Agricultural insurance; Reinsurance; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18408 |
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| Babcock, Bruce A.; Hart, Chad E.; Hayes, Dermot J.. |
| Increased crop insurance subsidies have increased the demand for insurance at coverage levels higher than the traditional level of 65 percent. Premium rates for higher levels of yield insurance under the Federal Actual Production History (APH) program equal the premium rate at the 65 percent coverage level multiplied by a rate relativity factor that varies by coverage level but not by crop or region. In this paper, we examine the consistency of these constant rate relativity factors with the laws of probability by determining the maximum 65 percent premium rate that is consistent with a well-defined yield distribution. We find that more than 50 percent of U.S. counties have premium rates for corn, soybeans, and wheat that are not consistent with the laws... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18345 |
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| Baker, Mindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.. |
| A myriad of policy issues and questions revolve around understanding the bioeconomy. To gain insight, we develop a stochastic and dynamic general equilibrium model and capture the uncertain nature of key variables such as crude oil prices and commodity yields. We also incorporate acreage limitations on key feedstocks such as corn, soybeans, and switchgrass. We make standard assumptions that investors are rational and engage in biofuel production only if returns exceed what they can expect to earn from alternative investments. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandates the use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, with significant requirements for cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel production. We calculate the level of tax credits required... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6352 |
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| Monchuk, Daniel C.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Miranowski, John A.. |
| This study examines correlates with aggregate county income growth across the 48 contiguous states from 1990 to 2001. Since visual inspection of the variable to be explained shows a clear spatial relationship and to control for potentially endogenous variables, we estimate a two-stage spatial error model. Given the lack of theoretical and asymptotic results for such models, we propose and implement a number of spatial bootstrap algorithms, including one allowing for heteroskedasticity, to infer parameter significance. Among the results of a comparison of the marginal effects in rural versus non-rural counties, we find that outdoor recreation and natural amenities favor positive growth in rural counties, densely populated rural areas enjoy stronger growth,... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: County income growth; Rural development; Spatial bootstrapping.. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37377 |
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| Registros recuperados: 91 | |
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