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| Registros recuperados: 121 | |
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| Jirik, Mark A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Jirik, Mark A.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance from 1995 through 1998 for wheat. The average net advisory price across all 24 wheat programs in 1995 is $3.79 per bushel, $0.18 above the market benchmark price. The range in 1995 is $3.01 to $4.71 per bushel. The average net advisory service price for 23 wheat programs in 1996 is $3.82 per bushel, $0.13 below the market benchmark. The range in 1996 is $2.74 to $4.94 per bushel. The average net advisory price for all 20 wheat programs in 1997 is $2.64 per bushel, $0.58 below the market benchmark. The range in 1997 is $1.34 to $3.90 per bushel. Finally, the average net advisory price across all 21 services in 1998 is $2.36 per bushel, $0.54 below... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14777 |
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| Canoles, W. Bruce; Thompson, Sarahelen R.; Irwin, Scott H.; France, Virginia G.. |
| The focus of this study is the habitual speculator in commodity futures markets. The speculator's activity broadens a market, creates essential liquidity, and performs an irreplaceable pricing function. Working knowledge of the profiles and motivations of habitual speculators is essential to both market theorist and policy makers. Responses to a 73 question survey were collected directly from retail commodity brokers with offices in Alabama. Each questionnaire recorded information on an individual commodity client who had traded for an extended period of time. The typical trader studied is a married, white male, age 52. He is affluent and well educated. He is a self-employed business owner who can recover from financial setbacks. He is a politically right... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14768 |
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| Webber, Rick L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance of agricultural market advisory services in hogs. Pricing recommendations are available for all quarters from the beginning of 1995 through the end of 2001. The results show that average differences between advisory programs and market benchmarks are small in nominal terms for all three benchmarks, -$0.41/bu., $O.OO/cwt. and $-0.27/cwt. versus the cash, index and empirical benchmarks, respectively, and none of the average differences are significantly different from zero. Hence, advisory programs as a group do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price. Advisory programs also do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price and risk. Finally, there is... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18980 |
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| Park, Cheol-Ho; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| Numerous empirical studies have investigated the profitability of technical trading rules in a wide variety of markets, and many of them found positive profits. Despite positive evidence about profitability and improvements in testing procedures, skepticism about technical trading profits remains widespread among academics mainly due to data snooping problems. This study tries to mitigate the problems by confirming the results of a previous study and then replicating the original testing procedure on a new body of data. Results indicate that in 12 U.S. futures markets technical trading profits have gradually declined over time. Substantial technical trading profits during the 1978-1984 period are no longer available in the 1985-2003 period. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14771 |
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| Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This study investigates the nature of the revision process of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970/71 through 2002/03 marketing years. Nordhaus' framework for testing the efficiency of fixed-event forecasts is used. In this framework, efficiency is based on independence of forecast revisions. Both parametric and non-parametric tests reject independence of consecutive forecast revisions. Positive correlation and consistency of directional changes in forecast revisions suggest that these forecasts are "smoothed." Estimates of the impact of smoothing on forecast accuracy show that correction for smoothing may result in economically meaningful improvements in accuracy. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19027 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Sanders, Dwight R.; Merrin, Robert P.. |
| It is commonly asserted that speculative buying by index funds in commodity futures and over–the–counter derivatives markets created a ‘‘bubble’’ in commodity prices, with the result that prices, and crude oil prices, in particular, far exceeded fundamental values at the peak. The purpose of this paper is to show that the bubble argument simply does not withstand close scrutiny. Four main points are explored. First, the arguments of bubble proponents are conceptually flawed and reflect fundamental and basic misunderstandings of how commodity futures markets actually work. Second, a number of facts about the situation in commodity markets are inconsistent with the existence of a substantial bubble in commodity prices. Third, available statistical evidence... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Commodity; Futures; Index fund; Market; Speculation; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Marketing; Q11; Q13. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53083 |
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| Park, Cheol-Ho; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| This paper investigates the profitability of technical trading rules in US futures markets over the 1985-2004 period. To account for data snooping biases, we evaluate statistical significance of performance across technical trading rules using White's Bootstrap Reality Check test and Hansen's Superior Predictive Ability test. These methods directly quantify the effect of data snooping by testing the performance of the best rule in the context of the full universe of technical trading rules. Results show that the best rules generate statistically significant economic profits only for two of 17 futures contracts traded in the US. This evidence indicates that technical trading rules generally have not been profitable in US futures markets after correcting... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19039 |
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| Franken, Jason R.V.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The storage at a loss paradox of positive inventories despite inadequate spot-futures price spread coverage of storage costs is an unresolved issue of long-standing interest to economists. Alternative explanations include risk premiums for futures market speculators, convenience yields from having inventories on hand, and the mismeasurement/aggregation of data. T-test analyses of disaggregated data suggest soybean price behavior consistent with intertemporal arbitrage conditions and corn price behavior that may imply convenience yields. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19005 |
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| Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The optimal hedging model has become the standard theoretical model of normative hedging behavior due to its intuitive tradeoff of expected return with risk, its effcient use of information and its easy implementation. In practice, the model can be easily implemented with the Parameter Certainty Equivalent procedure, which substitutes sample estimates for the true but unknown model parameters. But subjective views, which refer to opinions concerning the directions of market returns of the assets involved in hedging decisions, are either completely ignored or handled in an ad hoc and unsatisfactory manner within the optimal hedging model. Given the widespread use of subjective views in hedging practice and the potential economic benefit of selective... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19009 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| Heterogeneity, i.e., the notion that individuals respond differently to economic stimuli, can have profound consequences for the interpretation of behavior and the formulation of agricultural policy. This paper compares and evaluates three grouping techniques that can be used to account for heterogeneity in financial behavior. Two are well established: company-type grouping and cluster analysis. A third, the generalized mixture regression model, has recently been developed and is worth considering as market participants are grouped such that their response to the determinants of economic behavior is similar. We evaluate the grouping methods in a hedging framework by assessing their ability to reflect relationships consistent with theory. The empirical... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Economic behavior; Heterogeneity; Hedging; Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; A10; B40; C1; D0; G0; L2; Q13. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114787 |
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| Isengildina, Olga; Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This study sought to examine the nature of farmers’ use of market advisory services based on the results of a survey of US crop producers. The survey revealed that market advisory service users tend to be significantly more risk seeking than non-users. Survey results indicated a large range in patterns of use of advisory services. Most farmers use advisory services to the greatest extent for marketing information, market analysis, and to keep up with markets. General guidelines (market strategies and price information) are utilized more than specific advice (e.g., specific pricing decisions, price forecasts). Only 11% of farmers reported that they closely follow the marketing recommendations provided by advisory services. Nonetheless, farmers report that... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37489 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops. The results for 1995-2000 were released in earlier AgMAS research reports, while results for the 2001 crop year are new. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict "real-world" marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14773 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Batts, Ryan M.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. On average, the results show that the frequency of advisory programs pricing in the top-third of the corn price range over 1995-2004 is modest, between 17 and 25%. By far the largest average frequency occurs in the middle third of the corn price range, ranging from 58 to 63%. Price range results for soybeans are similar to the results for corn. Average differences between 50/50 advisory revenue and benchmarks range from 5 to $7 per acre for market benchmarks and 8 to $12 per acre for farmer benchmarks. The average advisory return relative to the farmer benchmarks is about three percent of average... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37456 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| In an effort to improve marketing of their products, many farmers use market advisory services (MAS). To date, there is only fragmented anecdotal information about how farmers actually use the recommendations of market advisory services in their marketing plans, and how they choose among these services. Based on the literature on consulting services usage, a conceptual framework is developed in which perceived performance of the MAS regarding realized crop price and risk reduction, and the match between the MAS and the farmer's marketing philosophy drive MAS usage. To account for possible heterogeneity among farmers regarding to the use of MAS, we introduce a mixture-modeling framework that is able to identify unobserved heterogeneity. With this modeling... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18950 |
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| Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to identify the appropriate market benchmark price to use to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services that are included in the annual AgMAS pricing performance evaluations. Five desirable properties of market benchmark prices are identified. Three potential specifications of the market benchmark price are considered: the average price received by Illinois farmers, the harvest cash price, and the average cash price over a two-year crop marketing window. The average cash price meets all of the desired properties, except that it would not be easily implementable by producers. It can be shown, though, that the price realized via a more manageable strategy of "spreading" sales during the marketing... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Advisory services; Evaluating the pricing performance; Market benchmark price; C8; C0; D4; D8; L1; M3; Q0; Z0; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14783 |
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| Registros recuperados: 121 | |
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