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| Registros recuperados: 33 | |
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| Kingwell, Ross S.. |
| This paper uses variance decomposition modelling to explore how wheat revenue volatility in Australia has changed spatially and temporally. The components of revenue variance are the variances and covariances of wheat prices, the area of wheat harvested and the yield of wheat. The key finding is that the volatility of wheat revenue (detrended) has more than doubled in every main wheat-growing State in Australia over the last 15 years or so Changes in wheat areas are mostly a minor source of revenue variance. The principal cause of volatility is yield changes with price changes increasing slightly in absolute importance when compared to their adjacent previous period. Greater downside yield risk is often the principal cause of the increased yield variance.... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk; Wheat production; Variance decomposition; Wheat farming; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100572 |
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| Kingwell, Ross S.. |
| The introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops raises several issues. This paper looks at incentives required to reduce problems of illegal and improper use of GM proprietary technology used in growing GM crops. A simple model of producer behaviour describes some key influences of a farmer’s response to GM crops. The model is illustrated using the example of INGARD cotton grown in Australia. The key findings are that legitimate adoption of a GM crop by a farmer depends on their attitude to risk, the relative profitability of growing the GM crop, the probability of detection of illegal or improper use of the GM crop and the severity of fines successfully imposed for fraud or contract breaches. In the case of INGARD cotton the problem of illegal and... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123687 |
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| Kingwell, Ross S.. |
| Modern farming in Australia is no longer simple. Farms are large, multi-enterprise businesses underpinned by expensive capital investments, changing production technologies, volatile markets and pervasive regulation. The complexity of modern broadacre farming leads to the question: what is the nature of the relationship between farm business complexity and farm profitability? This study uses bioeconomic farm modelling and employs eight measures of complexity to examine the profitability and complexity of a wide range of broadacre farming systems in Australia. Rank order correlations between farm profitability and each measure of complexity show inconsistent relationships, although the most profitable farming systems are found to be reasonably complex on... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Complexity; Farm modelling; Management; Profitability; Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59090 |
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| Kingwell, Ross S.; Farre, Imma. |
| Down-scaled global circulation modelling is combined with wheat growth simulation modelling to generate yield responses to times of sowing under current and projected climatic conditions for several locations in the grainbelt of Western Australia. A model for investment in crop sowing machinery draws on these simulated yield relationships at each location and is used to determine a farmer’s optimal investment in crop sowing work rate capacity under current and projected climate regimes. The key finding is that at most locations the projected change in climate has marked impacts on profit distributions from grain production, yet mostly modest changes in the farmer’s investment in machinery work rate form part of the profit-maximising response to climate... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Farm machinery; Farm management; Machinery investment; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6011 |
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| Browne, Natalie; Kingwell, Ross S.; Behrendt, Ralph; Eckard, Richard. |
| Dryland farming is commonplace in Australia so the profitability of dryland farms often depends on the amount and timing of rainfall. With drier weather conditions featuring in climate change projections for southern Australia, it is important to understand the relationships between rainfall, commodity prices and farm profitability. Using correlated farm commodity and input prices from the past nine years, farm profitability was calculated for a range of farm types in southwest Victoria under low, average and high rainfall scenarios. Fourteen representative farms were examined that included production of Merino fine wool, prime lamb, beef cattle, milk, wheat and canola. This paper compares and contrasts the spread of profitability of these farms against... |
| Tipo: Working Paper |
Palavras-chave: Dryland farming; Farm enterprises; Climate change; Price variability; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124249 |
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| Bathgate, Andrew D.; Kingwell, Ross S.; O'Connell, Michael. |
| Sustained low prices for wool have resulted in a prolonged decrease in the profitability of wool production. The extent of the decline has led some farmers to question whether wool has a viable future on their farms. In many regions growers have substantially increased their area of crop and reduced their commitment to wool production. Stock numbers have declined appreciably and there is concern amongst some that the wool industry may not recover. This paper uses Western Australia as a case study for investigating the future of wool. In particular the nature and role of R,D&E in the industry is examined. The success of R,D&E is reviewed and the directions and likely impacts of future R,D&E on farm are discussed. |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123761 |
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| Pannell, David J.; Kingwell, Ross S.; Schilizzi, Steven. |
| Bugs are an unavoidable aspect of mathematical programming (MP) modelling. In this paper we discuss the prevention and diagnosis of bugs in MP models. The topic is rarely addressed in the literature but is crucial to the success of modelling projects, especially for large models. We argue that finding a bug and understanding unexpected results (whether or not due to a bug) are very closely related activities. We identify different types of bugs and suggest practical strategies for dealing with each. Adopting procedures for prevention of bugs is essential, especially for large models. We outline the prevention strategies we have adopted and found successful for the MIDAS and MUDAS models. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12306 |
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| Kingwell, Ross S.. |
| A discrete stochastic programming model of the farming system of the eastern wheatbelt of Western Australia is used to examine the effect of tactical responses and risk aversion on wheat supply. Including within-season tactical changes to wheat areas decreases the own-price elasticity of supply. By contrast, introducing risk aversion has no consistent effect on the own-price elasticity of supply. The implications for supply models are discussed. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12393 |
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| Kingwell, Ross S.. |
| Benefit‐cost analyses of R&D activity in agriculture increasingly form part of the decision‐making process of allocating R&D funds. This article describes how institutional and social influences can affect the rigour and quality of R&D evaluations. The article explores some possible mechanisms for quality control in benefit‐cost analysis so that appraisals are more likely to be accountable and credible assessments rather than false advertising or biased assessments. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117034 |
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| Nath, Tanmoy; Kingwell, Ross S.; Cunningham, Peter; Islam, Nazrul; Xayavong, Vilaphonh; Curtis, Kimbal; Feldman, David; Anderton, Lucy; Mahindua, Truphena. |
| Western Australia (WA) supplies around three-quarters of Australia’s exports of live sheep. The number of sheep exported live from WA has ranged from 4.5 million to 2.4 million with the trend in numbers exported being downwards. The future of this export trade appears to be increasingly vulnerable and uncertain, primarily because of the influence of animal welfare lobbyists. This paper uses scenario analysis to assess the impact on WA’s sheep supply chain of the termination of the live sheep export trade. The supply chain comprises three subsectors: farm production, processing/wholesale and retailing/export. The impacts of the trade termination on each of these sub-sectors are reported. These impacts are strongly linked to how producers respond to... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Live sheep export; Animal welfare; Regional economic impacts; Industry value chains; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124345 |
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| Kingwell, Ross S.. |
| Commercial export from Australia of native birds, wild or captive bred, is prohibited. This paper firstly describes the current legislation and regulations that restrict the export of native birds and discusses why governments have adopted such a regulatory approach to bird species preservation. Secondly, the paper reviews the debate concerning the export ban, pointing out strengths and weaknesses in arguments and indicating the important role of CITES. Lastly, the paper outlines a new case for a conditional lifting of the ban, whereby DNA fingerprinting is used to establish transferable property rights to overcome a main source of market failure in the preservation of bird species. Application of this DNA technology offers an opportunity both to protect... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 1994 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12487 |
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| Brennan, John P.; Kingwell, Ross S.; Thomson, Fiona M.; Cullis, Brian R.. |
| In undertaking cultivar trials, the variability of the response of the cultivars to the different environments in which they are grown introduces the possibility of release errors and non‐release errors in the decisions made on the basis of the trial results. In this article a model is developed that accounts for the economic costs of those errors as well as the costs of operating the trials, and enables the features of the optimal cultivar testing program to be identified. The model is illustrated by application to wheat cultivar trials in central and southern NSW. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117231 |
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| Anderton, N.; Kingwell, Ross S.. |
| Ethanol production is increasingly commonplace in many grain producing regions. This paper uses the grain producing region of Western Australia as a case study to illustrate how the location and size of an ethanol plant affects its grain accumulation costs. Specifically, this study examines how price variability of various wheat grades, combined with spatial and temporal variability in production of those grades affects the costs of grain accumulation for ethanol production. These costs are the main component of a plant's operating costs so lessening these costs can offer a comparative advantage for a plant owner. Logistics models' based on mathematical programming were constructed to depict a range of plant sizes and locations for ethanol production. The... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Mathematical programming; Logistics; Wheat; Grain quality; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10349 |
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| Registros recuperados: 33 | |
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