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| Registros recuperados: 32 | |
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| Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict "real-world" marketing conditions. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) cash prices and yields refer to a central Illinois farm, iii) storage is assumed to occur at on-farm or commercial sites, and iv) marketing loan recommendations made by advisory programs are followed wherever feasible. Based on these... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14784 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. A new database from the Agricultural Market Advisory Services (AgMAS) Project is used in the evaluation. This database should not be subject to survivorship and hindsight biases. Overall, the results provide limited evidence that advisory programs as a group outperform market benchmarks, particularly after considering risk. In contrast, some evidence exists that advisory programs as a group outperform the farmer benchmark, even after taking risk into account. There is little evidence that advisory programs with superior performance can be usefully selected based on past performance. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22256 |
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| Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Jirik, Mark A.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1998 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1998. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.17 per bushel - seven cents below the market benchmark price. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of $1.93 per bushel to a maximum of $2.51 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 22 soybean programs is $5.82 per bushel - four cents less than the market benchmark. The net advisory prices for soybeans range from a minimum of $5.11 per bushel to a maximum of $6.58 per bushel. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14793 |
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| Cabrini, Silvina M.; Stark, Brian G.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This study analyzes the potential risk reduction gains from naive diversification (equal-weighting) among market advisory services for corn and soybeans. The total possible decrease in risk through naive diversification is small, mainly because advisory prices are highly correlated on average. Moreover, since marginal risk reduction benefits decrease rapidly with size, and the cost of holding the portfolios increases linearly due to services' subscription fees, it is optimal to limit portfolio size to a few advisory programs. Based on certainty equivalent measures and two representative risk aversion levels, preferred portfolio sizes are between one and three services. Overall, there does not appear to be strong justification for farmers adopting... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19013 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this research bulletin is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. The pricing performance results over 1995-2000 suggest several key findings. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but they do consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans tend to beat both market and farmer benchmarks. Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory programs only marginally beat market benchmarks, but consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Overall, there is mixed evidence that advisory programs as a group outperform market benchmarks, while substantial evidence exists that advisory programs as a group outperform... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14794 |
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| Webber, Rick L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance of agricultural market advisory services in hogs. Pricing recommendations are available for all quarters from the beginning of 1995 through the end of 2001. The results show that average differences between advisory programs and market benchmarks are small in nominal terms for all three benchmarks, -$0.41/bu., $O.OO/cwt. and $-0.27/cwt. versus the cash, index and empirical benchmarks, respectively, and none of the average differences are significantly different from zero. Hence, advisory programs as a group do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price. Advisory programs also do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price and risk. Finally, there is... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18980 |
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| Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Stark, Brian G.; Shi, Wei; Webber, Rick L.; Hagedorn, Lewis A.; Williams, Steven L.. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14776 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Hagedorn, Lewis A.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2003 corn and soybean crops. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but tend to consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans exhibit just the opposite pattern, consistently beating the market benchmarks but not the farmer benchmark. Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory programs show marginal consistency in beating both the market benchmarks and the farmer benchmark. So, the results provide mixed performance evidence with respect to both the market benchmarks and the farmer benchmark. |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37486 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Batts, Ryan M.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. Marketing assumptions applied to advisory program track records are intended to accurately depict “real-world” marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as well as interest opportunity costs, are charged to post-harvest sales, iii) brokerage costs are subtracted for all futures and options transactions and iv) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) marketing loan... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37513 |
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| Hagedorn, Lewis A.; Irwin, Scott H.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.; Sherrick, Bruce J.; Schnitkey, Gary D.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to summarize the features of several types of "new generation" grain marketing contracts. Over the last several years, new types of grain marketing contracts have been developed by the grain industry in an attempt to improve the results of the marketing process for farmers. These products use automated pricing rules, discretionary marketing on the part of a professional advisor, options strategies, or some combination of all three; their goal is to achieve a price for the farmer near or above the "average" price offered by the market over a given time. Reports in the farm media suggest interest in new generation contracts has increased rapidly in recent years. This publication describes some of the contracts... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14782 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but they do consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans tend to beat both market and farmer benchmarks. Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory programs only marginally beat market benchmarks, but consistently beat the farmer benchmark. So, the results provide mixed performance evidence with respect to market benchmarks and consistently positive evidence with respect to the farmer benchmark. Caution should be used when considering the results, due to the relatively small sample of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14770 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2001 corn and soybean crops. The results for 1995-2000 were released in earlier AgMAS research reports, while results for the 2001 crop year are new. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict “real-world” marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as well... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37510 |
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| Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Stark, Brian G.; Shi, Wei; Webber, Rick L.; Hagedorn, Lewis A.; Williams, Steven L.. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 soybean crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14791 |
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| Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in the 1999 crop year for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1999. The average net advisory price across all 26 corn programs in 1999 is $2.02 per bushel, three cents below the market benchmark price. The range of net advisory prices for corn is substantial, with a minimum of $1.66 per bushel and a maximum of $2.49 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 25 soybean programs in 1999 is $5.67 per bushel, seventeen cents above the market benchmark. As with corn, the range of net advisory prices for soybeans is substantial,... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14779 |
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| Registros recuperados: 32 | |
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