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| Registros recuperados: 32 | |
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| Roberts, Michael J.; Tack, Jesse B.. |
| Farm income is highly variable due to annual price and yield uncertainties. The federally subsidized crop insurance program is an important tool for managing this risk, and has grown from a relatively modest program to one that encompasses the majority of productive cropland in the country. The success of this program depends on identification of actuarially fair insurance premium rates, which in turn depends on accurate estimation of farm-level yield distributions. We use the confidential U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency (RMA) panel dataset to estimate farm-specific distributions of yields and actually fair crop insurance premiums. Our ongoing work includes using the difference between our estimated actually fair premiums and RMA's to... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Yield; Crop Insurance; Policy; Mixed Model; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103405 |
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| Roberts, Michael J.; Schimmelpfennig, David E.; Ashley, Elizabeth; Livingston, Michael J.; Ash, Mark S.; Vasavada, Utpal. |
| Early-warning systems for plant diseases are valuable when the systems provide timely forecasts that farmers can use to inform their pest management decisions. To evaluate the value of the systems, this study examines, as a case study, USDA’s coordinated framework for soybean rust surveillance, reporting, prediction, and management, which was developed before the 2005 growing season. The framework’s linchpin is a website that provides real-time, county-level information on the spread of the disease. The study assesses the value of the information tool to farmers and factors that influence that value. The information’s value depends most heavily on farmers’ perceptions of the forecast’s accuracy. The study finds that the framework’s information is valuable... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Soybean rust; Farmers’ perceptions; Forecast accuracy; Updating beliefs; Value of information; Real-time disease location; Plant disease management; Pest management; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7208 |
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| Roberts, Michael J.; Key, Nigel D.. |
| Over the last twenty five years commodity crop farms have steadily declined in number and grown in average size, and production has shifted to larger operations. During the same period, the share of agricultural payments going to large farms has increased, in large part because payments are tied to actual or historical crop production. This study evaluates whether payments from federal farm programs may have contributed to the concentration of farmland. Using zip code-level data constructed from the micro files of the 1987-2002 Agriculture Censuses the study estimates the association between government payments per acre and subsequent growth in weighted median farmland area. A semi-parametric generalized additive model controls for location and initial... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21097 |
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| Sullivan, Patrick; Hellerstein, Daniel; Hansen, LeRoy T.; Johansson, Robert C.; Koenig, Steven R.; Lubowski, Ruben N.; McBride, William D.; McGranahan, David A.; Roberts, Michael J.; Vogel, Stephen J.; Bucholtz, Shawn. |
| This report estimates the impact that high levels of enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) have had on economic trends in rural counties since the program's inception in 1985 until today. The results of a growth model and quasi-experimental control group analysis indicate no discernible impact by the CRP on aggregate county population trends. Aggregate employment growth may have slowed in some high-CRP counties, but only temporarily. High levels of CRP enrollment appear to have affected farm-related businesses over the long run, but growth in the number of other nonfarm businesses moderated CRP's impact on total employment. If CRP contracts had ended in 2001, simulation models suggest that roughly 51 percent of CRP land would have returned... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33987 |
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| Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| Economic theory suggests several possible mechanisms through which direct government farm payments might influence the pattern of structural change in agriculture. This study estimates what effect farm payments have had on farm structure using farm-level panel data from the 1987, 1992, and 1997 Agricultural Censuses. Results suggest that the size of per-acre payments received in the past are associated with a small and weakly positive change in farm size between consecutive censuses, but that payments are significantly correlated with an increased likelihood of farm survival between consecutive periods. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22106 |
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| Claassen, Roger; Lubowski, Ruben N.; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| We examine changes in land use caused by the large increase in crop insurance premium subsidies under the 1994 Federal Crop Insurance and Reform Act (FCIRA). We use a conditional logit model to estimate changes in six major land uses from 1992 and 1997 as a function of the change in expected return to crop insurance. Our data on individual land parcels across the entire coterminous United States enable identification of the extent, location, and physical characteristics of the land brought into and retained in production as a result of the crop insurance policies. Results indicate the additional crop insurance premium subsidies increased cultivated cropland area on the order of 1.9 million acres (0.6%), consistent with the lower range of previous... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19546 |
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| O'Donoghue, Erik J.; Key, Nigel D.; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| We use a large increase in Federal crop insurance subsidies as a natural experiment to identify the impact of risk on acreage and diversification decisions. Subsidy increases induced greater crop insurance coverage, which reduced farmers' financial risks. Did this change in the risk environment alter production decisions? We merged crop insurance participation data with farm-level Agricultural Census data from 1992 and 1997 to examine how harvested acreage and diversification changed in response to the policy-induced change in insurance coverage. The difference in differences empirical approach controls for unobservable heterogeneity and our results are robust across multiple definitions of our key variables and various fixed effects. We find that... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19397 |
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| Key, Nigel D.; Lubowski, Ruben N.; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| This study makes use of farm-level data from the Agricultural Census to evaluate the effects of the 1996 Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act, which intended to "decouple" commodity payments from production decisions. Prior to this Act, agricultural support payments were linked to production decisions via prices and a complex set of restrictions that acted to control the supply of agricultural commodities. We compare farm-level 1992-to-1997 changes in commodity crop plantings of farms that participated in government programs with farms that did not participate. We find that the growth rate of program-crop acreage of non-participants was 19 percentage points below that of participants. This estimated difference remains unchanged after... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20128 |
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| Ahearn, Mary Clare; Collender, Robert N.; Diao, Xinshen; Harrington, David H.; Hoppe, Robert A.; Korb, Penelope J.; Makki, Shiva S.; Morehart, Mitchell J.; Roberts, Michael J.; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi; Vandeveer, Monte; Westcott, Paul C.; Young, C. Edwin. |
| The studies in this report analyze the effects of decoupled payments in the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act on recipient households, and assess land, labor, risk management, and capital market conditions that can lead to links between decoupled payments and production choices. Each study contributes a different perspective to understanding the response of U.S. farm households and production to decoupled income transfers. Some use new microdata on farm households collected through USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), initiated in 1996, and its predecessor survey. These data are used to compare household and producer behavior and outcomes before and after the FAIR Act. Other studies use applied or conceptual models to... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33981 |
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| Lubowski, Ruben N.; Bucholtz, Shawn; Claassen, Roger; Roberts, Michael J.; Cooper, Joseph C.; Gueorguieva, Anna; Johansson, Robert C.. |
| This report examines evidence on the relationship between agricultural land-use changes, soil productivity, and indicators of environmental sensitivity. If cropland that shifts in and out of production is less productive and more environmentally sensitive than other cropland, policy-induced changes in land use could have production effects that are smaller-and environmental impacts that are greater-than anticipated. To illustrate this possibility, this report examines environmental outcomes stemming from landuse conversion caused by two agricultural programs that others have identified as potentially having important influences on land use and environmental quality: Federal crop insurance subsidies and the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the Nation's... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); Crop insurance; Erosion; Extensive margin; Farm policy; Imperiled species; Land use; Land-use change; Land quality; Nutrient loss; Soil productivity; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33591 |
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| Roberts, Michael J.; Key, Nigel D.. |
| Farm-level Census data and county-level income shock data reveal that past unexpected income shocks affect the rate of change in average farm size. Average farm size increases more quickly in counties experiencing negative income shocks as compared to counties experiencing positive income shocks. This result cannot be explained by perfect-market models, which predict farm size should adjust according to changes in the relative prices of labor and capital. We posit a model wherein cash flows affect liquidity, which in turn affects farm borrowing and capital costs. In the model, farms that do not face liquidity constraints benefit from negative income shocks because they reduce land values, so these farms expand while liquidity-constrained farms contract.... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Farm size; Farm structure; Income shocks; Liquidity constraint; Risk; Agricultural Finance; Industrial Organization. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19661 |
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| Berck, Peter; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| Hotelling's theory predicts that natural resource rents should increase over time. However, technical progress in resource extraction, environmental constraints, or great natural abundance could result in stagnant or declining product prices. Thus, there is no theoretical reason to believe that product prices will rise in the near future. The prediction of product prices by time-series methods is shown to depend critically upon whether the series are modeled as differenced or trend stationary. Dickey-Fuller and Lagrange Multiplier tests are used to show that the series are differenced stationary. Long- and short-sample series are tested. Trend-stationary modeling strongly predicts rising resource prices. The result from differenced-stationary modeling is... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Arima models; Natural resources; Simulation methods; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43908 |
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| Bucholtz, Shawn; Roberts, Michael J.. |
| Previous research finds that some environmental benefits stemming from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are offset by slippage: farmers simply plant more acreage to substitute for land that was idled. Our analysis shows that previous slippage estimates likely stem from spurious correlation. Most land retired under CRP is of lower-than-average quality. Due to the marginal economic viability of these lands they also are more likely to move both into and out of agricultural production. CRP enrollments therefore will be spatially correlated with non-cropland to cropland conversions even if no slippage is present. Using time-series rather than cross-sectional variation in CRP enrollments, we obtain new slippage estimates that control for land... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19714 |
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| Registros recuperados: 32 | |
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