SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Makki, Shiva S.; Somwaru, Agapi.

In recent years, the crop insurance program has emerged as an important part of the U.S. farm policy. Farmers responded to the crop insurance program with increased participation nationwide. At issue is whether the rapid expansion of the program has worsened the asymmetric information problems in crop insurance markets. This paper investigates the presence of adverse selection in cotton insurance markets. Our results reject the conditional independence of the choice of insurance contracts and risk of loss, implying the presence of informational asymmetries between the insurer and insured in Texas cotton insurance markets. Results show that actual premium rates are significantly different from both pure and fair premium rates.

AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM IN THE WTO: THE ROAD AHEAD

Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19827

Diao, Xinshen; Elbehri, Aziz; Gehlhar, Mark J.; Gibson, Paul R.; Leetmaa, Susan E.; Mitchell, Lorraine; Nelson, Frederick J.; Nimon, R. Wesley; Normile, Mary Anne; Roe, Terry L.; Shapouri, Shahla; Skully, David W.; Smith, Mark; Somwaru, Agapi; Trueblood, Michael A.; Tsigas, Marinos E.; Wainio, John; Whitley, Daniel B.; Young, C. Edwin.

Agricultural trade barriers and producer subsidies inflict real costs, both on the countries that use these policies and on their trade partners. Trade barriers lower demand for trade partners' products, domestic subsidies can induce an oversupply of agricultural products which depresses world prices, and export subsidies create increased competition for producers in other countries. Eliminating global agricultural policy distortions would result in an annual world welfare gain of $56 billion. High protection for agricultural commodities in the form of tariffs continues to be the major factor restricting world trade. In 2000, World Trade Organization (WTO) members continued global negotiations on agricultural policy reform. To help policymakers and others...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34015

RURAL LABOR MIGRATION, CHARACTERISTICS, AND EMPLOYMENT PATTERNS: A STUDY BASED ON CHINA'S AGRICULTURAL CENSUS

Tuan, Francis C.; Somwaru, Agapi; Diao, Xinshen.

Continued industrialization in China and increase in its agricultural productivity imply that surplus rural workers will to be attracted into non-agricultural production activities and, consequently, will have the opportunity to increase their off-farm income. Studying the structure of the rural labor force and its characteristics is important for evaluating its migration potential into non-agricultural sectors. This study examines the rural labor market in China exclusively based on China’s first national agricultural census. We analyzed the demographic characteristics of the rural labor force and their association with the type of employment, place of work, and labor migration. Furthermore, we investigated demographic distributions of rural labor force...

Effects of Increased Biofuels on the U.S. Economy in 2022

Palavras-chave: Labor and Human Capital.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16284

Gehlhar, Mark J.; Somwaru, Agapi; Somwaru, Agapi.

Achieving greater energy security by reducing dependence on foreign petroleum is a goal of U.S. energy policy. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) calls for a Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS-2), which mandates that the United States increase the volume of biofuel that is blended into transportation fuel from 9 billion gallons in 2008 to 36 billion gallons by 2022. Long-term technological advances are needed to meet this mandate. This report examines how meeting the RFS-2 would affect various key components of the U.S. economy. If biofuel production advances with cost-reducing technology and petroleum prices continue to rise as projected, the RFS-2 could provide economywide benefits. However, the actual level of benefits (or costs) to the...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Bioenergy; Economywide; Ethanol; Petroleum; Trade; Macroeconomic factors; RFS-2; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96758

THE UNITED STATES IN THE GLOBAL SOYBEAN MARKET: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Bolling, H. Christine; Somwaru, Agapi; Kruse, Jamie Brown.

This study applies the concept of a dynamic dominant-firm oligopoly model to the international soybean market. It has been suggested that the international soybean market should be viewed as an oligopoly among exporting nations. Consistent with Gaskins (1971) dynamic dominant firm model, our results indicate that the current U.S. loan deficiency-payment prices and their predecessors created an environment in which smaller (fringe) exporters could prosper and expand. The reduction of U.S. market share is thus a logical outcome of an "optimally managed decline" a la Gaskins. The study finds U.S. market share to decline at a reducing rate and predicts U.S. market share eventually to stabilize, given the expanding international market for soybeans and...

Dynamics of Structural Transformation: Understanding the Key Factors That Drive Innovative Activities in Selected Asian and African Countries

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20698

Badibanga, Thaddee Mutumba; Diao, Xinshen; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi.

This paper develops a metric of structural transformation that can account for the production of new varieties of goods embodying advancements in technological know-how and design. Our measure captures the dynamics of an economy’s transformation and can be viewed as an extension of the static measure developed by Hausmann and Klinger (2006). We apply this measure to four digit level sitc trade data of China, Malaysia and Ghana over the period 1962-2000. The results show the rapid transformation of the Chinese economy is characterized by two important factors: the high proximity of its export basket to the three main industrial clusters – capital goods, consumer durable goods, and intermediate inputs, and the increase in the values of the new goods...

BRAZIL’S CLIMATE ADAPTATION POLICIES: IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE

Palavras-chave: Structural Transformation; Discovery; Technological Change; International Development; F19; O14; O33; O40.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43890

Valdes, Constanza; Arriola, Christine; Somwaru, Agapi; Gasques, Jose Garcia.

Current climate adaptation polices in Brazil are influencing not only the choice of crops but also many agricultural practices at the farm level including changes in planting and sowing periods, use of irrigation-saving technologies, and increased nitrogen fertilization, among others. The shape and content of these adaptation policies and measures for Brazil are not limited to production agriculture, but include also conservation reserve and risk-reducing farm programs. In addition, the decades-old adaptation and management strategies for agricultural production under tropical conditions carried out by EMBRAPA, Brazil’s premier agricultural research agency, continue to play a prominent role. As Brazil is one the world’s largest agricultural producers and...

PERSPECTIVES ON COTTON GLOBAL TRADE REFORMS

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91420

MacDonald, Stephen; Meyer, Leslie A.; Somwaru, Agapi.

World cotton prices fell to nearly unprecedented levels during the 2001/02 marketing year, causing distress to cotton producers and exporters worldwide. In a number of developing countries highly dependent on cotton for export earnings or where cotton is the primary cash crop, this distress was particularly acute. Global trade barriers to cotton are widespread, leading to some concern about the relationship between these trade barriers and global welfare. In particular, with the Doha Development Agenda's negotiations underway, discussion about the impact of trade barriers on the cotton sectors of developing countries has become more intense. A static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model finds that removing cotton tariffs and other trade...

Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21902

Harwood, Joy L.; Heifner, Richard G.; Coble, Keith H.; Perry, Janet E.; Somwaru, Agapi.

The risks confronted by grain and cotton farmers are of particular interest, given the changing role of the Government after passage of the 1996 Farm Act. With the shift toward less government intervention in the post-1996 Farm Act environment, a more sophisticated understanding of risk and risk management is important to help producers make better decisions in risky situations and to assist policymakers in assessing the effectiveness of different types of risk protection tools. In response, this report provides a rigorous, yet accessible, description of risk and risk management tools and strategies at the farm level. It also provides never-before-published data on farmers' assessments of the risks they face, their use of alternative risk management...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Diversification; Futures contracts; Leasing; Leveraging; Liquidity; Livestock insurance; Marketing contracts; Options contracts; Production contracts; Revenue insurance; Risk; Vertical integration; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34081

Developing Country Trade: Implications of China’s Changing Trade and Competitiveness in Intensive and Extensive Margin Goods

Somwaru, Agapi; Tuan, Francis C.; Gehlhar, Mark J.; Diao, Xinshen; Hansen, James M..

This paper delves into China’s differential growths in trade flows with high income and developing countries by focusing on bilateral content of trade data over the time period 1978-2005. Unlike other studies, we account for end use of traded goods ranging from primary, intermediate, and finished goods because China’s policies impact all segments China’s trade flows. In the last 28 years, China has specialized in deficits in the upstream production segments (parts and components) and rapid diversification in consumption goods (extensive margin). While in the late 1970s China’s export and import growth on all goods with major high income countries is outstanding in the most recent years China’s trade growth with developing countries has taken the lead...

Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Exports

Palavras-chave: China; International trade; Growth; Intensive; Extensive margins; Developing countries; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6239

Shane, Mathew; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi.

While it is generally accepted that change in the real value of the dollar is an important determinant of exports, it has not been rigorously demonstrated that this relationship, derivable from theory, holds empirically for agricultural exports and the components of agricultural exports. Starting with a dynamic maximizing framework, this paper estimates the real trade-weighted exchange rate and trade partner income effects on U.S. agricultural exports. For the period 1970–2006, a one percent annual increase in trade partners’ income is found to increase total agricultural exports by about 0.75 percent, while a one percent appreciation of the dollar relative to trade partner trade-weighted currencies decreases total agricultural exports by about 0.5...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Exchange rates; U.S. agricultural trade; U.S. agricultural commodity exports; U.S. agricultural export prices; Foreign income; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45666

Farm Level Effects of Counter-Cyclical Payments

Makki, Shiva S.; Johnson, D. Demcey; Somwaru, Agapi.

The paper analyzes the role of counter-cyclical (CC) payments in stabilizing farm incomes and investigates whether the payments could affect farmers planting decisions. Our analysis, based on representative farmer approach, finds that CC payments provide a relatively modest enhancement to farm welfare. However, much depends on market price conditions, which change from year to year, and on base acreage (which is determined by planting history). The paper finds little evidence of interaction between revenue insurance and CC payments.

Allocation Effects of Policy Reform: A Micro-Simulation of Macro-Model Results for the United States

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19508

Hopkins, Jeffrey W.; Hanson, Kenneth; Somwaru, Agapi; Burfisher, Mary E..

By changing marginal prices and therefore production incentives, removal of government payments will result in a re-allocation of factors of production as farm households pursue alternative economic opportunities. At the economy-wide level these impacts are small, but closer inspection reveals that some household-level impacts will be larger and other households will be affected little if at all. The underlying heterogeneity of the agricultural sector results in variable adjustment along two dimensions. First, survey data show that payments are not evenly distributed so their removal does not have a uniform impact across the sector. Second, even if payments were evenly distributed, factor endowments are not, so that ability to enter into alternative...

Dynamics of Structural Transformation: An Empirical Characterization in the Case of China, Malaysia, and Ghana

Palavras-chave: Income; Labor; CGE; Micro-simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15750

Badibanga, Thaddee Mutumba; Diao, Xinshen; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi.

The paper develops a metric of structural transformation that can account for the production of new varieties of goods embodying advancements in technological know-how and design. Our measure captures the dynamics of an economy’s transformation and can be viewed as an extension of Hausmann and Klinger’s static measure. We apply our measure to four-digit-level SITC trade data of China, Malaysia, and Ghana over the period 1962–2000. The results show that two important factors characterize the rapid transformation of the Chinese economy: the high proximity of its export basket to three main industrial clusters—capital goods, consumer durable goods, and intermediate inputs—and the increase in the values of the new goods belonging to those three clusters....

FARMLAND HOLDINGS, CROP PLANTING STRUCTURE AND INPUT USAGE: AN ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S AGRICULTURAL CENSUS

Palavras-chave: Structural transformation; Discovery; Technological change; International Development; F19; O14; O33; O40.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50004

Diao, Xinshen; Zhang, Yi; Somwaru, Agapi.

This study, based on the data of China’s agricultural census of 1997, focuses on the land distribution among rural households and its effects on crop production structure and employment of labor and capital. The Census data show that the size of holdings surprisingly differs among households, and land rental activities has started to play an important role in land allocation. Grain production accounts for 80% of total sown area for each household group, indicating that self-sufficiency in grains production is still an important factor to farmers. Family members are a dominant source for China's agricultural labor force, regardless of the size of land held in each household. Machinery use in crop production is still not popular, while the scale of land held...

Multilateral or Regional Agreement: The Case of Mediterranean Non-EU Countries

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16320

Mattas, Konstadinos; Tsakiridou, Efthimia; Somwaru, Agapi.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are at a crossroad regarding potential trade reforms. The EU is not only the world's largest market for the region's agricultural products, but also remains the prime outlet for these Mediterranean countries' exports. An applied general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of various trade reform options in the region. Results suggest that the region might benefit most under special provisions for developing countries. Under global trade reform, MENA preferences with EU might be eroded, with EU Mediterranean countries like Greece benefit the most with global trade reform.

A TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKETS

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25627

Langley, Suchada V.; Blayney, Donald P.; Stout, Jim; Somwaru, Agapi; Normile, Mary Anne; Miller, James J.; Stillman, Richard.

International dairy industries remain among the most distorted agricultural sectors. Dairy average bound tariffs remain among the highest of all agricultural commodities, and dairy trade is characterized by a large number of megatariffs and tariff-rate quotas (TRQs). The objective of our study is to examine how the international dairy markets might respond to policy changes under various assumptions, using a partial equilibrium, multiple-commodity, multiple-region model of agricultural policy and trade. Our results indicate that liberalization will reduce supplies, increase dairy trade, and raise world prices.

Minnesota Agricultural Economist 696

Palavras-chave: Dairy Markets; Trade Liberalization; Model; Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21997

Diao, Xinshen; Roe, Terry L.; Somwaru, Agapi.

Which Came First: Growth in Trade or Trade Arrangement?

Impact of China’s Agriculture Policies on Domestic and World Commodity Markets

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13208

Hansen, James M.; Tuan, Francis C.; Somwaru, Agapi; Seeley, Ralph.

China’s agricultural and trade policies have been shifting despite little change in policy objectives. This paper investigates potential implications of recent agriculture policies applied in China, and quantitatively analyzes their impacts on domestic and international commodity markets. Results from a 42 country partial equilibrium dynamic agricultural simulation model indicate that the effects on international markets are likely to be small with world price impacts of less than one percent. The set of policies partially offset each other in the international market. Results indicate increased returns to farmers and lowering domestic prices to consumers. China’s producers increase production slightly because of increased input subsidies. Exports are...

Are Urban Consumers in China Ready to Accept Biotech Foods?

Palavras-chave: China; Policy; Trade; Value added tax; Export tax; Subsidies; VAT rebates; Dynamic partial equilibrium simulation model; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51704

Lin, William W.; Somwaru, Agapi; Tuan, Francis C.; Huang, Jikun; Bai, Junfei.

Based on a large-scale survey conducted in 11 large and small eastern cities in 2002, this study employs ordered probit models to estimate the effects of demographic and socio-economic variables on the likelihood of biotech food acceptance in China. This study also employs a dichotomous choice model to estimate consumers' mean willingness to pay (WTP) for biotech foods, including soybean oil and insect-resistant biotech rice. This survey reaffirms that Chinese urban consumers had a low awareness of biotechnology. Despite the low level of awareness, a great majority of respondents had favorable or neutral attitudes toward biotech foods. Only 5-15 percent was strongly or relatively opposed to biotech foods. Results from the models suggest that mid- and...