SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Espinosa-Goded, Maria; Barreiro-Hurlé, Jesús.

En los experimentos de elección se presupone que los individuos consideran todos los atributos que describen un bien a la hora de escoger su opción preferida. Sin embargo, existe evidencia de que los individuos pueden obviar algún atributo. Este trabajo investiga el impacto derivado de las preferencias discontinuas en las estimaciones de la compensación necesaria para acogerse a la medida agroambiental relativa a la siembra de leguminosas en secano. La consideración de las preferencias discontinuas mejora la bondad de ajuste de los modelos, sin embargo únicamente afecta de manera significativa a la compensación demandada por uno de los cuatro atributos no monetarios que definen el programa agroambiental para la submuestra de los agricultores no...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Experimento de elección; Medidas agroambientales; Modelo logístico de parámetros aleatorios; Precios implícitos; Preferencias discontinuas.; Agribusiness; C25; C52; Q12; Q18..

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99607

Estimation and Inference for Threshold Effects in Panel Data Stochastic Frontier Models

Yelou, Clement; Larue, Bruno; Tran, Kien C..

One of the most enduring problems in cross-section or panel data models is heterogeneity among individual observations. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with this issue, but threshold regression models offer intuitively appealing econometric methods to account for heterogeneity. We propose three different estimators that can accommodate multiple thresholds. The first two, allowing respectively for fixed and random effects, assume that the firms specific inefficiency scores are time-invariant while the third one allows for time-varying inefficiency scores. We rely on a likelihood ratio test with m − 1 regimes under the null against m regimes. Testing for threshold effects is problematic because of the presence of a nuisance parameter which...

Quantifying Obesity in Economic Research: How Misleading is the Body Mass Index?

Palavras-chave: Stochastic frontier models; Threshold regression; Technical efficiency; Bootstrap; Dairy production; C12; C13; C23; C52; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9769

Parks, Joanna C.; Smith, Aaron D.; Alston, Julian M..

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/19/10.

Convergence and the Effects of Spatial Interaction

Palavras-chave: Obesity; Percent body fat (PBF); Body mass index (BMI); Economic costs; Measurement error; Health Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C52; I10.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61841

Niebuhr, Annekatrin.

Since the beginning of the 1990s, the issue of income convergence has received considerable attention in economic research. Although a vast number of empirical studies has emerged, evidence on the role of spatial interaction is still rather scarce. The present paper is an attempt to provide additional information on the spatial aspect of convergence. Spatial econometric methods are used to investigate regional convergence in West Germany. The results indicate that spatial interaction is an important element of regional growth. However, considering spatial effects does not alter the general conclusion that regional income growth is characterised by a process of convergence.

Spurious Long Memory in Commodity Futures: Implications for Agribusiness Option Pricing

Palavras-chave: Regional convergence; Spatial interaction; Spatial econometrics; Community/Rural/Urban Development; C21; C52; O18; R11.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26351

Power, Gabriel J.; Turvey, Calum G..

Long memory, and more precisely fractionally integration, has been put forward as an explanation for the persistence of shocks in a number of economic time series data as well as to reconcile misleading findings of unit roots in data that should be stationary. Recent evidence suggests that long memory characterizes not commodity futures prices but rather price volatility (generally defined as $L_p$ norms of price logreturns). One implication of long memory in volatility is the mispricing of options written on commodity futures, the consequence of which is that fractional Brownian motion should replace geometric Brownian motion as the building block for option pricing solutions. This paper asks whether findings of long memory in volatility might be spurious...

Exchange and Interest Rates prior to EMU: The Case of Greece

Palavras-chave: Q13; Q14; Marketing; C52; C53; G12; G13.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9782

Antzoulatos, Angelos A.; Wilfling, Bernd.

Recently a variety of exchange and interest rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. While these stochastic equilibrium models in continuous time are theoretically rigorous, a systematic and extensive empirical validation is still lacking. Using exchange and interest rate data collected prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001 this paper tries to fill the gap between theory and real-world data. The analysis reveals that the formal models can explain many features of the Greek exchange and interest rate dynamics on the road to EMU.

Interest Rate Volatility Prior to Monetary Union Under Alternative Pre-Switch Regimes

Palavras-chave: EMU; Exchange and interest rate models; Policy shifts; Economic regime switching models; International Relations/Trade; E43; F31; F33; C51; C52.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26325

Wilfling, Bernd.

The volatility of interest rates is relevant for many financial applications. Under realistic assumptions the term structure of interest rate differentials provides an important prediction of the term structure of interest rates. This paper derives the term structure of differentials in a situation in which two open economies plan to enter a monetary union in the future. Two systems of floating exchange rates prior to the union are considered, namely a free-float and a managed-float regime. The volatility processes of arbitrary term differentials under the respective pre-switch arrangements are compared. The paper elaborates the singularity of extremely short-term (i.e. instantaneous) interest rates under extensive leaning-against-the-wind intervention...

Incorporating Uncertainty and Cero Values into the Valuation of Protected Areas and Species

Palavras-chave: Interest rate volatility; Term structure; Exchange rate arrangements; Intervention policy; Stochastic processes; Financial Economics; E43; F31; F33; C52.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26277

Hurle, Jesus Barreiro; Garcia, Jose Maria Casada; Perez y Perez, Luis.

Under the Spanish conservation law, compensation is envisaged for the damage associated with all actions that reduce the quantity or quality of protected areas and species. This paper provides a tool to evaluate the monetary equivalent of this damage. We conduct a contingent valuation exercise to estimate the existence value related to protected areas and species in Aragon. This estimate is then reconsidered including the possibility of zero bids and also the possibility of uncertain preferences for non-familiar goods. Considering these two effects, mean values are reduced significantly giving support to previous recommendations of dividing by two contingent valuation estimates from dichotomous choice question formats.

Modeling Advertising Expenditures and Spillover Effects Applied to the U.S. Non-Alcoholic Beverage Industry: Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Polynomial Distributed Lag (PDL) Approaches

Palavras-chave: Natural heritage; Contingent valuation; Spike model; Uncertainty; Land Economics/Use; B23; C24; C42; C52; D62; Q26.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24745

Dharmasena, Senarath; Capps, Oral, Jr.; Bessler, David A..

The non-alcoholic beverage market in the U.S. is a multi-billion dollar industry growing steadily over the past decade. Also, non-alcoholic beverages are among the most heavily advertised food and beverage groups in the United States. Several studies pertaining to non-alcoholic beverages including the incorporation of advertising effects have been conducted, but most of these have centered attention on milk consumption. Some studies have considered demand interrelationships for several beverages including advertising effects in systems-wide analyses. In our analysis, we develop and employ a unique monthly time-series data set derived from Nielsen Homsescan panels for household purchases of non-alcoholic beverages over the period from January 1998 through...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Non-alcoholic beverages; Vector autoregression; Polynomial distributed lags; Beverage advertizing; Directed acyclic graphs; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Marketing; C18; C22; C52; C53; C81; D11; D12.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124363

Análisis econométrico de la heterogeneidad de las preferencias de los individuos: aplicación a la valoración económica de la conservación del paisaje agrícola de montaña

Colombo, Sergio; Hanley, Nick.

The need to account for respondents’ preference heterogeneity in stated choice models has motivated researchers to apply random parameter logit and latent class models. In this paper we compare these three alternative ways of incorporating preference heterogeneity in stated choice models and evaluate how the choice of model affects welfare estimates in a given empirical application. Finally, we discuss what criteria to follow to decide which approach is most appropriate. RESUMEN: La necesidad de incorporar la heterogeneidad en las preferencias de los individuos en los modelos de elección discreta ha llevado a los investigadores a emplear siempre más frecuentemente modelos de parámetros aleatorios o de clases latentes. En este artículo se comparan tres...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Heterogeneity; Heterogeneidad; Modelos de clases latentes; Modelos de heterogeneidad de la varianza; Modelos de parámetros aleatorios; Paisaje de montaña; Latent class models; Covariance heterogeneity models; Random parameter models; Uphill landscape; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C52; Q24.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37191

Oil Price Forecast Evaluation with Flexible Loss Functions

Bastianin, Andrea; Manera, Matteo; Markandya, Anil; Scarpa, Elisa.

The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several alternative econometric specifications proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of oil prices. Second, we analyse the effects of different data frequencies on the coefficient estimates and forecasts obtained using each selected econometric specification. Third, we compare different models at different data frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using static forecasts, as well as...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Oil Price; WTI Spot and Futures Prices; Forecasting; Econometric Models; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C52; C53; Q32; Q43.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120042

Modelling Asymmetric Dependence Using Copula Functions: An Application to Value-at-Risk in the Energy Sector

Bastianin, Andrea.

In this paper I have used copula functions to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an equally weighted portfolio comprising a small cap stock index and a large cap stock index for the oil and gas industry. The following empirical questions have been analyzed: (i) are there nonnormalities in the marginals? (ii) are there nonnormalities in the dependence structure? (iii) is it worth modelling these nonnormalities in risk- management applications? (iv) do complicated models perform better than simple models? As for questions (i) and (ii) I have shown that the data do deviate from the null of normality at the univariate, as well as at the multivariate level. When considering the dependence structure of the data I have found that asymmetries show up in their...

Spatial R&D Spillovers and Economic Growth - Evidence from West Germany

Palavras-chave: Copula functions; Forecasting; Value-At-Risk; Risk and Uncertainty; C32; C52; C53; G17; Q43.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50452

Funke, Michael; Niebuhr, Annekatrin.

The paper bases itself on recent theoretical writings in growth economics that emphasize the effects of both own R&D efforts and of interregional technology spillovers on regions´ productivity. We propose robust estimation techniques to evaluate the R&D spillovers across West German functional regions during the period 1976 - 1996. The findings suggest the existence of knowledge spillovers across functional regional boundaries. Moreover, significant spillovers are mainly found among geographically close regions. This finding confirms the hypothesis that proximity matters. Das Papier basiert auf jüngeren Beiträgen zur Wachstumstheorie, die den Stellenwert eigener F&E-Anstrengungen und interregionaler Spillover-Effekte für die regionale...

Residential Land Values in Urbanizing Areas

Palavras-chave: R&D Spillovers; Economic Growth; Germany; International Development; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C21; C52; F43; O57; R11.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26396

Kaltsas, Ioannis K.; Bosch, Darrell J.; McGuirk, Anya M..

Zoning decisions related to residential lot size and density affect residential land value. Effects of size on residential parcel value in Roanoke County, VA, are estimated with fixed effects hedonic models. Parcel size; elevation; soil permeability; proximity to urban areas, malls, and roads; and location influence parcel value, but the effects vary by value of construction and development status. Parcel value per square meter declines with increasing parcel size. The estimated relationships could be used to evaluate zoning decisions in terms of land values and tax revenues if model estimation uncertainties and responses by developers to zoning strategies are considered.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Development; Fixed effects; Hedonic model; Property values; Residential density; Spatial econometrics; Agribusiness; Land Economics/Use; Q24; C25; C52.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47204

Estimating Indirect Production Functions with a More General Specification: An Application of the Lewbel Model

Hilmer, Christiana E.; Holt, Matthew T..

Whereas consumer theory employs several different empirical specifications for estimating indirect utility functions, producer theory has relied on the Translog specification to estimate the indirect production function. In this paper, we apply Lewbel’s more general functional specification and investigate its implications for the estimation of indirect production functions in productivity analysis. An attractive feature of the Lewbel model is that it nests both the Translog and the almost ideal supply system, offering a method to assess the empirical validity of all three specifications. Aggregate U.S. production data are used to examine the performance of the three models in an empirical application.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Duality; Indirect production function; Nested test; C32; C52; Q12.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43484

An Empirical Study of the Chinese Short-Term Interest Rate: A Comparison of the Predictive Power of Rival One-Factor Models

Xu, Hai Yan; Ward, Bert D.; Nartea, Gilbert V..

This paper uses the one-factor models proposed by Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS, 1992) to study the short-term interest rate in China. Nine stochastic models of the short-term interest rate were estimated with GMM. For the Chinese one-month inter bank loan rate, the research finds strong evidence for a mean-reverting feature in the short-term interest yield curve, but no evidence was found to indicate that the volatility is highly positively correlated with the level of interest rates. What is more, evidence was found that the CKLS model, the CIR SR model, and the Brennan-Schwartz model are correctly specified to model the Chinese short-term interest rate, so that these three models are able to adequately capture the dynamics of this interest...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Single-factor models; Mean reversion; GMM estimation; Prediction tests; Financial Economics; C52; E43.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50157

The “Rural-Sensitive Evaluation Model” for evaluation of local governments’ sensitivity to rural issues in Serbia

Win, Heijman; Milic, Branislav B.; Bogdanov, Natalija.

In the search for an adequate set of indicators to measure the level of pro-rural aspirations of Local Governments (LG), the main existing approaches to endogenous development have been examined. However, the conclusion must be that none of them seem to fit the needs completely. For this reason, a new index, the Municipal Rural-Sensitive Index (MRSI), has been developed, representing the base for the Rural Sensitive Evaluation Model (RSEM). The MRSI integrates the key features of the LEADER (Liaison Entre Actions de Développement Rural) philosophy, consisting of 41 rural-sensitive indicators, grouped into 3 categories and 7 sub-categories. The resulting MRSI scores allow a quick comparison between LGs, show changes over time and assists in establishing a...

International Pork Trade and Foot-and-Mouth Disease

Palavras-chave: Evaluation; Model; LEADER; Local Government; Agricultural and Food Policy; C52; C54; H11; O21; R58..

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99417

Yang, Shang-Ho; Reed, Michael R.; Saghaian, Sayed H..

International pork trade has not only been influenced by trade agreements but also altered by consumer perceptions on disease-infected animals. This study uses a gravity model with fixed-effects to investigate how pork trade is affected by foot-and-mouth disease among 186 countries. Results confirm that pork export falls when an exporting country develops FMD. Exporters with a vaccination policy have larger negative impacts than those with a slaughter policy. Further, pork importers that develop FMD and institute a slaughter policy will import more pork, but importers with a vaccination policy import the same level of pork. In order to retain a position as a top pork exporter, a slaughter policy is often a better choice than a vaccination policy.

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Foot-and-mouth disease; Pork exports; Regional trade agreement; Gravity model; Zero-valued trade.; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C52; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124356

Operational Models for Improving the Targeting Efficiency of Agricultural and Development Policies: A systematic comparison of different estimation methods using out-of-sample tests

Houssou, Nazaire; Zeller, Manfred.

Accurate targeting is key for the success of any development policy. While a number of factors might explain low targeting efficiency such as governance failure, political interference or lack of political will, this paper focuses on improving indicator-based models that identify poor households and smallholder farmers more accurately. Using stepwise regressions along with out-of-sample validation tests and receiver operating characteristic curves, this paper develops proxy means tests models for rural and urban Malawi. The models developed have proved their validity in an independent sample and therefore, can be used to target a wide range of development policies to the poor. This makes the models a potentially interesting policy tool for the country.

Price Sensitivities for U.S. Frozen Dairy Products

Palavras-chave: Malawi; Poverty targeting; Predictions; Proxy means tests; Out-of-sample tests; ROC curve; Bootstrap; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C01; C13; C51; C52; I3; I32; Q14.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51454