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Registros recuperados: 126
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Efecto inflacionario de las remesas en la economía de México Colegio de Postgraduados
Espinosa Zamorano, Edy Gregorio.
Por su impacto en la economía mexicana, las Remesas tienen gran importancia y sus efectos son positivos. Sin embargo, es posible que tengan un componente inflacionario. Este trabajo analiza su efecto sobre el nivel general de precios en la economía mexicana. Bajo la óptica de cointegración, se concluye que las Remesas de los migrantes mexicanos no están asociadas al nivel general de precios de la economía y no manifiestan ningún efecto sobre el agregado monetario M1. Sin embargo, bajo una representación autorregresiva vectorial, las Remesas con dos rezagos afectan directamente el nivel general de precios y el agregado monetario M1. Por tanto, Remesas, el nivel general de precios y M1 no tienen causalidad contemporánea, pero si al rezago._______For it´s...
Tipo: Tesis Palavras-chave: Agregado monetario M1; Cointegración; Índice nacional de precios al consumidor; Regresión espuria; Remesas; Vectores autorregresivos; Maestría; Economía; Monetary aggregation M1; Cointegration; National index of price to the consumer; Spurious regression; Remittances; Vector autoregressions.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/1598
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Eficiencia de la política de cobertura de precios de maíz en México. Colegio de Postgraduados
García Juárez, José de Jesús.
El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la eficiencia de las coberturas de precios de maíz blanco operadas por ASERCA. Para el estudio, se utiliza el análisis de cointegración de S. Johansen que consiste en probar la existencia de cointegración entre las variables de series de tiempo, en este caso: precios al mayoreo de maíz blanco, precio a futuro de maíz amarillo cotizado en la Bolsa de Futuros de Chicago (CBOT) y tipo de cambio peso-dólar; esta variable en particular, porque al adquirir una cobertura, existe también un riesgo cambiario dado que tanto la adquisición como la liquidación de las coberturas son realizadas en dólares. Los resultados indican que los precios de maíz al mayoreo de las centrales de abasto de Sinaloa, Jalisco, Estado de México,...
Palavras-chave: ASERCA; Cointegración; Riesgo; Serie de tiempo; Cointegration; Risk; Time series; Maestría; Economía.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/421
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Eficiencia de la política de cobertura de precios de maíz en México. Colegio de Postgraduados
García Juárez, José de Jesús.
El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la eficiencia de las coberturas de precios de maíz blanco operadas por ASERCA. Para el estudio, se utiliza el análisis de cointegración de S. Johansen que consiste en probar la existencia de cointegración entre las variables de series de tiempo, en este caso: precios al mayoreo de maíz blanco, precio a futuro de maíz amarillo cotizado en la Bolsa de Futuros de Chicago (CBOT) y tipo de cambio peso-dólar; esta variable en particular, porque al adquirir una cobertura, existe también un riesgo cambiario dado que tanto la adquisición como la liquidación de las coberturas son realizadas en dólares. Los resultados indican que los precios de maíz al mayoreo de las centrales de abasto de Sinaloa, Jalisco, Estado de México,...
Palavras-chave: ASERCA; Cointegración; Riesgo; Serie de tiempo; Cointegration; Risk; Time series; Maestría; Economía.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/421
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Transmisión de los precios internacionales del café y su relación con los precios que reciben los productores de la Sierra Norte de Puebla. Colegio de Postgraduados
Benítez García, Erika.
La presente investigación analizó las características de los productores de café, la comercialización y la relación que existe entre los precios internacionales del café, los precios que reciben los productores del aromático. Para la caracterización se utilizó una muestra de 103 unidades de producción de café, obtenidas mediante muestreo aleatorio simple, con entrevistas cara a cara. Los datos se analizaron con pruebas de diferencia de medias y chi cuadrada, en tanto que para la estimación de la integración de precios se utilizó el análisis de cointegración. La teoría del precio único (LOP) explica la integración de los mercados, en este caso, la convergencia de los precios del café entre México y Estados unidos. Los resultados indican que los precios...
Palavras-chave: Cointegración; Comercialización; Transmisión de Precios; Estratificación de Unidades de Producción; Cointegration; Marketing of Coffee; Price Transmission; Stratification of Production Units; Estrategias para el Desarrollo Agrícola Regional; EDAR; Maestría.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/2228
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DYNAMIC ANALYSIS WITH TIME SERIES MODELS: SIMULATION AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AgEcon
Robledo, Carlos W.; Zapata, Hector O..
The performance of the FPE, AIC, HQ and SC criteria in choosing lag-length, and the effect on the impulse-response functions, are studied in a Monte Carlo simulation. The experiments include stationary, cointegrated, and mixed unit root VAR and MA cases.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Statistical selection criteria; Cointegration; Mixed unit roots; Impulse response functions; Small sample properties; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21526
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Cointegration and Market Integration: An Application to the Potato Markets in Rural West Bengal, India AgEcon
Basu, Jyotish Prakash.
The paper attempts to examine the market integration with the help of cointegration test on the prices of potato of Hooghly district in West Bengal. The analysis has been made at two levels, namely at the level of wholesale markets and at the retail markets. The cointegration test by Johansen and Jeselius (1990) applied to weekly prices of three important potato markets in Hooghly district suggest that the markets are integrated. Our results revealed that price signals and information are transmitted smoothly across the markets. These results have important policy implications. In a situation when potato markets are spatially integrated the government may think of reducing or even withdrawing its efforts to influence the price in the market. The finding of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Market integration; Cointegration; Wholesale potato market; Retail potato market; Price signal and information.; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Q13.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25705
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ANÁLISE DO PODER DE COMPRA NO MERCADO DE ARROZ EM SÃO PAULO AgEcon
Margarido, Mario Antonio; Bueno, Carlos Roberto Ferreira.
Esse artigo utilizou testes de exogeneidade e de co-integração para determinar o poder de compra entre os segmentos de produtores agrícolas, atacado e varejo em São Paulo. Foram utilizadas séries de preços de arroz em nível de produtor de arroz no estado de São Paulo, preço de arroz no atacado e varejo, ambos na cidade de São Paulo. O período de análise abrange o período de janeiro de 1995 a dezembro de 2006. Os resultados mostram que, no longo prazo, o atacado deprime o valor recebido pelo produtor de arroz em 15,10% (elasticidade de transmissão de preço maior que a unidade), resultado que demonstra o poder de compra do primeiro sobre o segundo. Os resultados também mostram que o varejo deprime os preços do arroz no atacado no longo prazo, porém, com...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Poder de compra; Teste de exogeneidade; Co-integração; Mercado de arroz; Buyers’ power; Exogeneity test; Cointegration; Rice market; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/112733
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Nonlinearities in the US corn-ethanol-oil price system AgEcon
Serra, Teresa; Zilberman, David; Gil, Jose Maria; Goodwin, Barry K..
We use a smooth transition vector error correction model to assess price relationships within the US ethanol industry. Daily ethanol, corn and oil futures prices observed from mid-2005 to mid-2007 are used in the analysis. Results indicate the existence of an equilibrium relationship between ethanol, corn and oil prices. However, only ethanol prices adjust, in a non-linear fashion, to deviations from this long-run parity. Generalized impulse response functions indicate that a shock to both oil and corn prices causes a change in ethanol prices of the same sign. Ethanol responses usually reach a peak after about 10 days of the initial shock and fade away within 35 days.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; United States; Cointegration; Threshold; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6512
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Money-Income Relationships between Three ERM Countries AgEcon
Choudhry, Taufiq.
This paper investigates the monetary interdependence and the money-income relationship between countries under a pegged and a floating exchange rate system during the same time period (1979-1997). The relationship is tested between three ERM countries, France, Germany and Holland, and also between these countries and the United States. The ERM countries have a pegged exchange rate between themselves, and the rate between these countries and the United States is freely floating. The empirical tests are conducted by means of the Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the error correction model. Among the ERM countries, international transmission of monetary policy is found in almost all directions. This may provide evidence against the theory of...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Monetary policy; Cointegration; Error correction; Speed of adjustment; Exchange rate; Public Economics; E50; E52.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44428
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HOW CLOSELY RELATED ARE THE PRICES OF ORGANIC AND CONVENTIONAL CORN? AgEcon
Singerman, Ariel; Lence, Sergio H..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Organic corn prices; Organic farming; Organic production; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q18.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61151
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The Commodity-Currency View of the Australian Dollar: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach AgEcon
Hatzinikolaou, Dimitris; Polasek, Metodey.
Using Australian quarterly data from the post-float period 1984:1-2003:1 and a partial system, we identify and estimate two cointegrating relations, one for the interest-rate differential and the other for the nominal exchange rate. Our estimate of the long-run elasticity of the exchange rate with respect to commodity prices is 0.939, which strongly supports the widely held view that the floating Australian dollar is a ‘commodity currency’. We also find that the PPP and UIP cannot be rejected so long as commodity prices are included in the cointegrating relations. Our model outperforms the random walk model in forecasting the exchange rate in the medium run.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Australian dollar; Commodity currency; Cointegration; F31; F41.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37462
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Extending Theil's Inequality Index: Addressing Dynamic Convergence in the OECD AgEcon
Weatherspoon, Dave D.; Seale, James L., Jr.; Moss, Charles B..
Theil’s inequality index is used to measure convergence in 14 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries in terms of per capita income, per capita government and investment expenditures, and industrial employment. Results indicate that all four variables have converged over the sample period, 1950-1988. Next, the indices of the four variables are made dynamic by using pairwise cointegration and Johansen’s I(2) multi-cointegration tests. These tests indicate that the four inequalities are cointegrated; that is, there exists a long-run equilibrium between the four inequalities of the 14 OECD countries. However, the inequality in per capita government expenditure has no effect on the G-7 equilibrium when analyzed without the...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Convergence; G-7; Inequality; OECD.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43300
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MODELLING IMPORT DEMAND SYSTEMS WITH NONSTATIONARY DATA: AN APPLICATION TO THE FRENCH IMPORTS OF VIRGIN OLIVE OIL AgEcon
Ben Kaabia, Monia; Gil, Jose Maria.
This paper aims to provide a flexible methodological framework to estimate import demand models, which explicitly considers the stochastic properties of data and the endogenous/exogenous nature of some variables. The French imports of virgin olive oil have been used as a case study with Spain, Italy and the Rest of the World as main suppliers. The methodological framework starts by the specification a reduced-form VAR. Appropriated exogeneity tests show the exogeneity of Total Real Imports, indicating the appropriateness of estimating a conditional model. Two cointegration relationships have been found. Several restrictions have been tested in order to identify them as AIDS equations. From structural coefficients of the restricted cointegrated vectors...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Virgin olive oil; France; Demand for imports; Cointegration; And exogeneity.; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6696
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Structural Change and Competition in Seven U.S. Food Markets AgEcon
Reed, Albert J.; Clark, J. Stephen.
Recent trends in mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. food sector –food manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers raise concerns about market power. In the presence of market power, farmers may receive lower than competitive farm prices, and consumers may pay higher than competitive retail prices. This study presents empirical tests of market power at the national level for seven food categories: beef, pork, poultry, eggs, dairy, fresh fruit, and fresh vegetables. At the national level, our tests provide evidence of competitive conduct in both the sale of final food products and the purchase of farm ingredients.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Retail food and farm prices; Market power; Structural change; Cointegration; Agribusiness; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33558
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Money Demand in a Banking Time Economy AgEcon
Gillman, Max; Otto, Glenn.
The paper presents a theory of the demand for money that combines a special case of the shopping time exchange economy with the cash-in-advance framework. The model predicts that both higher inflation and financial innovation - that reduces the cost of credit - induce agents to substitute away from money towards exchange credit. This results in an interest elasticity of money that rises with the inflation rate rather than the constant elasticity found in standard shopping time specifications. A number of the key predictions of the banking time theory are tested using quarterly data for the US and Australia. We find cointegration empirical support for the model, with robustness checks and a comparison to a standard specification.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Money demand; Cointegration; Financial technology; Banking time; O42; E13; E41; E51; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26221
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Testing the Market Integration in Regional Cantaloupe and Melon Markets between the U.S. and Mexico: An Application of Error Correction Model AgEcon
Xia, Yan; Susanto, Dwi; Rosson, C. Parr, III.
Examine the integration between U.S. and Mexican cantaloupe and watermelon prices using cointegration and error correction model approach. Cointegration analysis shows significant post-2002 improvement in market integration, particularly in the speed at which the market adjusts to departures from its long-run equilibrium.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Error correction model; Johansen test; Market cointegration.; Marketing.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34844
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Vertical price transmission between market operators in Hungarian agricultural product chains AgEcon
Varga, Tibor.
Price transmission studies related to the cointegration of price time series are a suitable means for studying market dominance at the various market levels in the food product chains. For this study a price transmission asymmetry study was carried out for 18 commercial food product chains. In this study a monthly price time series was used for the period 2001 to 2005. It was found that there is significant product variation in market dominance which spans the entire industry. However, the variation is not significantly linked to either sectors or vertical levels. At times it is unstable and can easily tilt toward the vertical partner level. Depending on price changes, it can also vary, which, in turn, reflects changes in weather conditions. Following a...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Price transmission; Cointegration; Market power; Food product chain; Hungary; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47014
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A FONTOSABB HAZAI TERMÉKPÁLYÁK ÁRALKUINAK JELLEMZŐI AgEcon
Varga, Tibor; Tunyogine Nechay, Veronika; Kemeny, Gabor.
A termékpályák tagoltsága, a termékpálya-fázisok eltérő koncentráltságából fakadó piaci formák a tevékenységi láncban kialakult áralkukat, valamint az elérhet ő árnyereséget, illetve árveszteséget meghatározzák. A számítási eredményeket a piac szereplőinek véleményével ütköztető vizsgálataink megerősítik, hogy a termékek túlnyomó részénél az erőfölény a legkoncentráltabb oldalnál, a kereskedelmi fázisban található. A kiskereskedelmi láncok nem csak egyértelműen árvezetők, de egyben a feldolgozott termékek importárain keresztül az egész vertikum áralakulását meghatározzák. A termelői és feldolgozói fázis között – nagyon kevés kivétellel – az árnyereség a feldolgozóknál figyelhető meg. Az ágazati szintű erőfölény vizsgálataink szerint termékenként erősen...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Árcentrum; Ártranszmisszió; Értékesítési csatorna; Kointegráció; Termékpálya; Piaci erő; Price centre; Price transmission; Merchandising channels; Cointegration; Farm produce; Market force; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57718
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Transmision de precios en los mercados regionales de ovino en Espana AgEcon
Boshnjaku, L.; Ben Kaabia, Monia; Gil, Jose Maria.
Resumen El análisis de las relaciones de precios existentes en un determinado sector permiten, por un lado, ofrecer una idea aproximada del funcionamiento de los mercados y, por otro, anticipar respuestas ante shocks inesperados en mercados relacionados. El objetivo de este estudio se ha centrado en el análisis de la transmisión de precios entre los principales mercados de ovino en España. Para llevar a cabo este estudio se ha adoptado un enfoque econométrico que ha tenido en cuenta las propiedades estocásticas de las series, la posible naturaleza multivariante de los procesos de transmisión, y la distinción entre el comportamiento a corto y largo plazo. Los resultados indican que los mercados de ovino se encuentran bastante interrelacionados pudiéndose...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Price transmission; Cointegration; Lead-lag relationships; Spanish lamb sector; Demand and Price Analysis; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28747
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EU and World Agricultural Markets: Are They more Integrated after the Fischler Reform? AgEcon
Mela, Giulio; Canali, Gabriele.
This work uses cointegration techniques allowing for structural breaks to assess the extent to which the Fischler reform of the CAP increases price transmission elasticity (PTE) between the world and European corn, wheat, and soybean markets. Results show that the reform increased PTE in the case of corn and wheat, while its impact was negligible for soybeans. However, the long-term relationship (cointegration) between world and European prices can be detected only taking into account – other than the Fischler reform’s structural break – also the fact that world commodity markets were interested, in 2003-04 and 2007-08, by price bubbles. In particular the latter affected the world – European corn price relationship in the ascending phase, while the wheat...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Structural breaks; Agricultural commodity prices; Fischler CAP reform; Risk and Uncertainty; C22; Q02; Q18; O13..
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122480
Registros recuperados: 126
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