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Growth Diagnostics and a Multisector Ramsey Model: The Case of Brazil 31
Vinyes, Cristina; Roe, Terry L..
Disenchantment with the Washington Consensus has led to an emphasis on growth diagnostics. In the case of Brazil, the literature suggests three main factors impeding growth: low domestic savings, a shortage of skilled workers, and lack of investment in the country’s transportation infrastructure. The unique contribution of this study is to show the inter-temporal implications of relaxing these constraints. We fit a multi-sector Ramsey model to Brazilian data, validate its fit to times data, and provide empirical insights into the economy’s structural transformation to long-run equilibrium. Then, the sensitivity of these results to relaxing each of these three constraints is investigated in a manner that yields the same long-run level of well- being....
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Economic growth; Ramsey; Growth diagnostics; International Development; O11; O41; O54; D58.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56502
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Public spending composition and public sector efficiency: Implications for growth and poverty reduction in Uganda 31
Sennoga, Edward B.; Matovu, John Mary.
The paper examines the interrelationships between public spending composition and Uganda's development goals including economic growth and poverty reduction. We utilize a dynamic CGE model to study these interrelationships. This paper demonstrates that public spending composition does indeed influence economic growth and poverty reduction. In particular, this study shows that improved public sector efficiency coupled with re-allocation of public expenditure away from the unproductive sectors such as public administration and security to the productive sectors including agriculture, energy, water and health leads to higher GDP growth rates and accelerates poverty reduction. Moreover, the rate of poverty is faster in rural households relative to the urban...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Sennoga; Matovu; EPRC; Public expenditure; Economic growth - Uganda; Poverty reduction; Computable General Equilibrium; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Production Economics; Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C68; D58; E62; F15; H62; 132.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93808
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A Unified Framework for Measuring Preferences for Schools and Neighborhoods 31
Bayer, Patrick; Ferreira, Fernando; McMillan, Robert.
This paper sets out a framework for estimating household preferences over a broad range of housing and neighborhood characteristics, some of which are determined by the way that households sort in the housing market. This framework brings together the treatment of heterogeneity and selection that has been the focus of the traditional discrete choice literature with a clear strategy for dealing with the correlation of unobserved neighborhood quality with both school quality and neighborhood sociodemographics. We estimate the model using rich data on a large metropolitan area, drawn from a restricted version of the Census. The estimates indicate that, on average, households are willing to pay an additional one percent in house prices - substantially lower...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Capitalization; Local public goods; School quality; Discrete choice models; Hedonic price regression; Education demand; Labor and Human Capital; D58; H0; H4; H7; I2; R21; R31.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28513
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Análisis de intensidades energéticas y emisiones de CO2 a partir de la matriz de contabilidad social de Andalucía del año 2000 31
Cardenete, Manuel Alejandro; Fuentes Saguar, Patricia D.; Polo, Clemente.
RESUMEN: En este artículo se estiman las intensidades energéticas y emisiones de CO2 para la economía andaluza en el año 2000. Las intensidades energéticas de las ramas productivas se calculan en varios escenarios empleando un modelo SAM especificado con la matriz de contabilidad social elaborada por los autores. Las emisiones se estiman con el modelo input-output, distinguiendo la polución intermedia de la originada por la demanda final. Los resultados muestran la existencia de importantes variaciones en intensidades entre ramas y también las sustanciales variaciones que acaecen al endogeneizar el consumo y la inversión. La estimación de las emisiones en el año base resulta bastante satisfactoria y las simulaciones realizadas muestran el sustancial...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Emisiones de CO2; Matriz de contabilidad social; Multiplicadores energéticos; Agricultural and Food Policy; D57; D58; Q51.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57232
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A REGIONAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF THE WELFARE IMPACT OF CASH TRANSFERS: AN ANALYSIS OF PROGRESA IN MEXICO 31
Coady, David P.; Harris, Rebecca Lee.
Using a regionally disaggregated computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the differential welfare impacts of a cash transfer program targeted at rural areas. The direct effect of the transfers decreases regional income differentials, but the indirect effects depend on how the program is financed. Financing the program with a more efficient tax system is also less regressive and has favorable urban impacts. The less efficient instruments result in relatively higher incomes in all rural regions, but are more regressive. The increasing share of urban poverty highlights the shortcomings of rural targeting and raises the issue of horizontal equity.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: General equilibrium; Targeted transfers; Regional impacts; Tax incidence; Food Security and Poverty; D3; D58; D60; H2; O10; O54; R13.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16303
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Sugar Market Liberalization: Modeling the EU Supply of "C" Sugar 31
Gohin, Alexandre; Bureau, Jean-Christophe.
The various assessments of the effects of a liberalization of world sugar markets are largely inconsistent. One cause seems to be the modeling of the EU supply response. We investigate three possible linkages between production quota sugar and the out-of-quota or "C" sugar supply: i/ the existence of fixed costs covered by the in-quota sugar; ii /the "overshooting" behavior as prevention against poor yields; iii/ the production of C sugar as "reference building" in view of expected reforms. Modeling these effects results in the introduction of an implicit cross-subsidy between in quota sugar and C sugar. The resulting specification is included in a detailed model of EU agricultural sector so as to account for intersectoral linkages. We simulate the effects...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Common Agricultural Policy; Sugar; Modeling; General equilibrium models; Agricultural and Food Policy; D58; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24740
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Global Market Shocks and Poverty in Vietnam: The Case of Rice 31
Coxhead, Ian A.; Linh, Vu Hoang; Tam, Le Dong.
World food prices have experienced dramatic increases in recent years. These “shocks” affect food importers and exporters alike. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice, and rice is also a key item in domestic production, employment and consumption. Accordingly, rice price shocks from the world market have general equilibrium impacts and as such, their implications for household welfare are not known ex ante. In this paper we first present a simple framework for understanding the direct and indirect welfare effects of a global market shock of this kind. Second, we quantify the transmission of the price shock from global indicator prices to domestic markets. Third, we then we use an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to simulate the effects of domestic...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Vietnam; Rice; Poverty; Price transmission; General equilibrium; Microsimulation; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade; I32; D58; Q17.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116706
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An Econometric Model of CGE Simulations 31
Hess, Sebastian.
CGE models are widely used tools for economic assessments of trade policy changes. However, overall confidence in their results tends to be low. We employ the methodological framework of meta-analysis in order to approach a quantitative comparison of CGE-based simulation results. Therefore, we compile a dataset of twelve recent Doha simulations and fit a linear regression model that explains the variance between simulation results on the regional level as a function of various modeling characteristics. The estimates are broadly in range with documented qualitative knowledge about modeling assumptions. The size of the sample limits general conclusions; however, an ongoing research project will extend the approach to a larger sample.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CGE; Systematic review; Doha round; Evaluation; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C20; C68; D58; F10; C99.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24713
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ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS IN CHINA 31
Huang, Jikun; Hu, Ruifa; van Meijl, Hans; van Tongeren, Frank W..
China has made a major investment in biotechnology research. Genetically modified (GM) cotton is widely adopted and the list of GM technologies in trials is impressive. At the same time there is an active debate on when China should commercialize its GM food crops. The overall goal of this paper is to provide an economy-wide assessment of these issues under various scenarios. Based on a unique data from empirical micro-level study and field trial in China and a modified GTAP model, our results indicate that the development of biotechnology has an important impact on China's production, trade and welfare. Welfare gains far outweigh the public biotechnology research expenditures. Most gains occur inside China. Policy makers should put less weight on...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Economic impacts; Biotechnology; Genetically modified crops; China; Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C68; D58; F13; O33; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25883
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International food prices and poverty in Indonesia 31
Warr, Peter G.; Yusuf, Arief Anshory.
This paper argues that recent increases in international food prices worsened poverty incidence in Indonesia, even though many poor farmers benefited. This conclusion is based on the application of a multi-sectoral, multi-household general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy. The positive effect on the welfare of poor farmers was exceeded by the negative effect on poor consumers. Indonesia’s ban on rice imports since 2004 complicates this account. The import ban shielded Indonesia’s internal rice market from the temporary world price increases from 2007 to 2008, but did so at the expense of permanently increasing both rice prices and poverty incidence.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Indonesia; Food Prices; Poverty Incidence; General Equilibrium Modeling; International Development; D58; I32; F14.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59259
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Tariff-Rate Quotas and Agricultural Trade: An Application to the Agricultural Free-Trade Negotiation between the MERCOSUR and the EU 31
Drogue, Sophie; Ramos, Maria Priscila.
In October 2004 the European Union and the MERCOSUR tried to reach an agreement for creating what would be the world's largest free-trade area accounting for 650 millions people. But despite five years of bilateral work to strike a deal, the two parties stayed on ropes at their meeting in Portugal the 18th of October 2004. The stumbling blocks are the MERCOSUR's demand for a greater access to EU's agricultural markets and the EU's demand for expanded access for industrial goods, services and investments. Though, both partners made great efforts to comply with each other requests, it wasn't enough. In this paper we are interested in the possible last EU's offer to enlarge access to its market through the allocation of bilateral tariff-rate quotas for some...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: MERCOSUR; European Union; Agricultural trade; TRQ; GTAP; International Relations/Trade; D58; F17; F15.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24637
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The impact of the stimulus package on the agricultural sector in Vietnam 31
Trang, Truong Thi Thu; Vanzetti, David.
The global financial crisis in 2008-2009 has affected almost all countries. Vietnam was hit by a large fall in export demand and foreign direct investment. Many governments quickly prescribed stimulus packages and Vietnam was no exception. It reduced taxes and increased government spending, mainly by subsidizing loans to state-owned enterprises. The question is what the stimulated impact is, if any, and whether a better outcome could have been achieved by a different mix of policies. In this paper, we use a simple general equilibrium model to quantify the impact of the various components of the stimulus package on the whole economy as well as agricultural sector. The results suggest that, in the short run at least, the stimulus package marginally...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Vietnam; Fiscal stimulus; Agriculture; International Development; Public Economics; E62; D58; Q17.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100722
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Impacts of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Sectoral Emissions: Simulations with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model 31
Bao, Qin; Tang, Ling; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang.
Carbon-based border tax adjustments (BTAs) have recently been proposed by some OECD countries to level the carbon playing field and target major emerging economies. This paper applies a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the impacts of the BTAs implemented by US and EU on China’s sectoral carbon emissions. The results indicate that BTAs will cut down export prices and transmit the effects to the whole economy, reducing sectoral output-demands from both supply side and demand side. On the supply side, sectors might substitute away from exporting toward domestic market, increasing sectoral supply; while on the demand side, the domestic income may be strikingly cut down due to the decrease in export price, decreasing...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Border Carbon Tax Adjustments; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Carbon Emissions; Environmental Economics and Policy; D58; F18; Q43; Q48; Q52; Q54; Q56; Q58.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120044
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Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates? 31
Fischer, Carolyn; Morgenstern, Richard D..
Estimates of marginal abatement costs for reducing carbon emissions in the United States by the major economic-energy models vary by a factor of five, undermining support for mandatory policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We use meta analysis to explain these cost differences, holding policy regimes constant and focusing on the role of baseline emissions projections and structural characteristics of the models. The results indicate that certain assumptions, like freer trade and greater disaggregation of regions and nonenergy goods, lead to lower estimates of marginal abatement costs, while more disaggregated energy goods raise them. Other choices, like myopic optimization by households or the inclusion of an international finance sector, seem less...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate models; Carbon tax; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q4; Q25; D58.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10537
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Renewable Energy Subsidies: Second-Best Policy or Fatal Aberration for Mitigation? 31
Kalkuhl, Matthias; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Lessmann, Kai.
This paper evaluates the consequences of renewable energy policies on welfare, resource rents and energy costs in a world where carbon pricing is imperfect and the regulator seeks to limit emissions to a (cumulative) target. We use a global general equilibrium model with an intertemporal fossil resource sector. We calculate the optimal second-best renewable energy subsidy and compare the resulting welfare level with an efficient first-best carbon pricing policy. If carbon pricing is permanently missing, mitigation costs increase by a multiple (compared to the optimal carbon pricing policy) for a wide range of parameters describing extraction costs, renewable energy costs, substitution possibilities and normative attitudes. Furthermore, we show that small...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Feed-in-Tariff; Carbon Trust; Carbon Pricing; Supply-Side Dynamics; Green Paradox; Climate Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q4; Q52; Q54; Q58; D58; H21.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108261
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Spatial networks in multi-region computable general equilibrium models 31
Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman.
"January 1999." Includes bibliographical references (p. 22-24).
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Equilibrium (Economics); Economic policy; Spatial analysis (Statistics); Computable general equilibrium (CGE); General Equilibrium; Spatial Network; Multi-Region Modeling; Transportation Costs; Trade Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; C68; D58; R13; O18.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97555
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Improving Land-use modelling within CGE to assess Forest-based Mitigation Potential and Costs 31
Michetti, Melania; Parrado, Ramiro.
We present a computable general equilibrium model properly modified to analyse the potential role of the European forestry sector within climate mitigation. Improvements on database and modelling frameworks allow accounting for land heterogeneity across and within regions and for land transfers between agriculture, grazing, and forestry. The forestry sector has been modified to track carbon mitigation potential from both intensive and extensive forest margins, which have been calibrated according to a forest sectoral model. Two sets of climate policies are simulated. In a first scenario, Europe is assumed to commit unilaterally to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% and 30%, by 2020. In a second scenario, in addition to the emissions quotas, progressively higher...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Climate Mitigation; General Equilibrium Modelling; Forestry; Environmental Economics and Policy; D58; Q23; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122862
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The Incentives to Participate in, and the Stability of, International Climate Coalitions: A Game-theoretic Analysis Using the Witch Model 31
Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Duval, Romain; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper uses WITCH, an integrated assessment model with a game-theoretic structure, to explore the prospects for, and the stability of broad coalitions to achieve ambitious climate change mitigation action. Only coalitions including all large emitting regions are found to be technically able to meet a concentration stabilisation target below 550 ppm CO2eq by 2100. Once the free-riding incentives of non-participants are taken into account, only a “grand coalition” including virtually all regions can be successful. This grand coalition is profitable as a whole, implying that all countries can gain from participation provided appropriate transfers are made across them. However, neither the grand coalition nor smaller but still environmentally significant...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate Policy; Climate Coalition; Game Theory; Free Riding; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; C72; D58; Q54.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54281
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THE IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ON GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION: SIMULATIONS WITH A DYNAMIC MODEL FOR EGYPT 31
El-Said, Moataz; Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman.
Addressing longer-term issues of economic development in Egypt, the paper employs a dynamically recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the outcomes associated with two types of development approaches over the period 1998-2012. One is a targeted sector development approach, and the second is a more broad-based development approach. Under the first development approach technological advancement is separately targeted to three sectors: agriculture, food processing, and textiles. Each sectoral choice is intended to represent alternative development strategies which we label (i) agricultural-demand- led industrialization (ADLI); (ii) food-processing-based (FOOD); and (iii) textile-based industrialization (TEXTILE). Under the second...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Atkinson inequality index; CGE; Egypt; Growth; Income distribution; SAM; Theil index; International Development; C68; D31; D33; D58; O47; O53.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16311
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REDD in the Carbon Market: A General Equilibrium Analysis 31
Bosello, Francesco; Eboli, Fabio; Parrado, Ramiro; Rosa, Renato.
Deforestation is a major source of CO2 emissions, accounting for around 17% of total annual anthropogenic carbon release. While the cost estimates of reducing deforestation rates vary considerably depending on model assumptions, it is widely accepted that emissions reductions from avoided deforestation consist of a relatively low cost mitigation option. Halting deforestation is therefore not only a major ecological challenge, but also a great opportunity to cost effectively reduce climate change negative impacts. In this paper we analyze the impact of introducing avoided deforestation credits into the European carbon market using a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium model – the ICES model (Inter-temporal Computable Equilibrium System). Taking...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Forestry; Avoided Deforestation; Climate Change; Emission Trading; General Equilibrium Modelling; Environmental Economics and Policy; D58; Q23; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98100
Registros recuperados: 58
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