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Dynamic Time Warping of Paleomagnetic Secular Variation Data ArchiMer
Hagen, Cedric J; Reilly, Brendan T; Stoner, Joseph S; Creveling, Jessica R.
We present and make publicly available a dynamic programming algorithm to simultaneously align the inclination and declination vector directions of sedimentary paleomagnetic secular variation data.This algorithmgenerates a library of possible alignments through the systematic variation of assumptions about the relative accumulation rate and shared temporal overlap of two or more time-series. The paleomagnetist can then evaluate this library of reproducible and objective alignments using available geologic constraints, statistical methods, and expert knowledge.We apply the algorithm to align previously (visually) correlated medium to high accumulation rate northern North Atlantic Holocene deposits (101– 102 cm/ka) with strong radiocarbon control. The...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Palaeomagnetic secular variation; Palaeomagnetism; Magnetostratigraphy; Dynamic programming; Statistical methods; Atlantic Ocean.
Ano: 2020 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00601/71322/69749.pdf
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Risk Classification in Animal Disease Prevention: Who Benefits from Differentiated Policy? AgEcon
Niemi, Jarkko K.; Lyytikainen, Tapani; Sahlstrom, Leena; Virtanen, Terhi; Lehtonen, Heikki.
Risk classification of livestock farms can help stakeholders design and implement risk management measures according to the possessed risk. Our goal is to examine how differently pig farms may contribute to the societal costs of an animal disease outbreak, how valuable this information is to different stakeholders, and how it can be used to target risk management measures. We show that the costs of an outbreak starting from a certain farm can be quantified for the entire sector using bio-economic models. In further studies, this quantified risk can be differentiated so that farms and slaughterhouses internalise the full cost of risk in production decisions and inhibit animal densities, animal contact structures or other characteristics which pose a threat...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk classification; Animal disease; Simulation; Dynamic programming; Partial-equilibrium; Losses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49307
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Economic cost of environmental flows in an unregulated river system AgEcon
Jones, Randall E.; Crean, Jason; Aluwihare, Parakrama B.; Letcher, Rebecca A..
This paper applies a stochastic dynamic programming framework, incorporating links to hydrological and biophysical models, to assess the economic costs of environmental flows in an unregulated river system in the Namoi Valley of northern New South Wales, Australia. Structural adjustment decisions are included in the model to account for farmer responses to changes in environmental flows through the introduction of a water sharing plan. The results of the analysis indicate that the proposed level of environmental flows reduces water extractions by around 6 per cent, and imposes an opportunity cost of less than 1 per cent in terms of reduced net income over a 20-year period.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Dynamic programming; Environmental flows; Irrigation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118334
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A Dynamic Optimisation Model of Weed Control AgEcon
Cacho, Oscar J.; Jones, Randall E..
It is argued in this paper that static approaches to weed management, where the benefits and costs are only considered within a single season, are inappropriate for assessing the economic benefits of weed control technologies. There are carryover effects from weed management as weeds that escape control in one season may reproduce and replenish weed populations in following seasons. Consequently, it is appropriate to view weed control in the context of a resource management problem where the goal is to determine the optimal inter-temporal level of weed control that maximises economic benefits over some pre-determined period of time. A dynamic optimisation model for weed control is presented. Using the tools of comparative static analysis and Pontryagin's...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Weed control; Resource economics; Optimal control; Dynamic programming; Wild oats; Farm Management.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12902
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MODELLING THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCTION ADJUSTMENT TO SHORT-TERM MARKET SHOCKS AgEcon
Niemi, Jarkko K.; Lehtonen, Heikki.
Models of agricultural economics typically operate at an annual basis or in a static equilibrium framework where inputs, outputs and their prices may change considerably. Production dynamics, however, imply that models relying on spatial and temporal aggregation do not capture the effects of biological constraints in the short run. This paper examines short and long-term impacts of demand and production cost shocks in the pig sector. The analysis is carried out with a dynamic programming model which takes into account changes in export and domestic demand and market clearing price. It optimizes the supply of piglets on a monthly basis. Econometric techniques are used to estimate demand functions. Short-term negative market shocks can already have...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Pig; Demand; Dynamic programming; Export; Livestock epidemics; Price; Supply; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6401
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Risk and Aversion in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change AgEcon
Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Climate change; Uncertainty; Integrated assessment; Risk aversion; Intertemporal substitution; Recursive utility; Dynamic programming; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q00; D90; C63.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90935
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Trade-offs between conflicting animal welfare concerns and cow replacement strategy in out-wintering Scottish suckler herds AgEcon
Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda; Morgan, Colin A.; Stott, Alistair W..
Since decoupling of the CAP, many Scottish suckler cow farms are facing financial difficulties. In response, many farmers are out-wintering extensively managed suckler cows to minimise production costs. These systems are of animal welfare concern. A range of trade-offs between animal welfare indicators and between animal welfare and farm profitability can be identified. A Dynamic Programming (DP) model was developed to study these trade-offs. Two herds were modelled assuming their feeding regimes were either low (LHERD) or high (HHERD). The objective of the DP was to maximise the expected net margin from a current cow and its successors over an infinite time horizon. Preliminary results showed that the rate of voluntary culling was higher in HHERD than in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Beef cow; Economics; Dynamic programming; Animal welfare; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51078
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LONG-TERM PLANNING OF A LIVESTOCK-CROP FARM UNDER GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS AgEcon
Kouka, Pierre-Justin; Duffy, Patricia A.; Taylor, C. Robert.
Optimal crop and livestock mix was determined for a representative Alabama farm using a dynamic programming model. Results indicate that decisions concerning livestock production are highly influenced by the amount of cotton base available on the farm. In most cases, increasing cotton base results in less cattle production. The triple base provisions of the 1990 Farm Bill, however, may give some cotton farmers an incentive to produce more stocker cattle during the winter months. Research results also indicate that the availability of farm programs can alter the optimal enterprise mix on a farm with no beginning base in cotton.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Farm programs; Dynamic programming; Livestock; Farm Management.
Ano: 1994 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15407
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Bioeconomic meta-modelling of Indonesian agroforests as carbon sinks AgEcon
Wise, Russell M.; Cacho, Oscar J..
In many areas of developing countries, economic and institutional factors often combine to give farmers incentives to clear forests and repeatedly plant food crops without sufficiently replenishing the soils. These activities lead to large-scale land degradation and contribute to global warming through the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We investigate whether agroforestry systems might alleviate these trends when carbon-credit payments are available under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. A meta-modelling framework is adopted, comprising an econometric-production model of a smallholding in Sumatra. The model is used within a dynamic-programming algorithm to determine optimal combinations of tree/crop area,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bio-economic meta-modelling; Indonesia; Agroforestry; Carbon credits; Dynamic programming; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6772
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Die Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit und Flexibilität in der Investitionsplanung – dargestellt am Beispiel einer Vertragsinvestition für Roggen AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Hirschauer, Norbert.
Investment decisions are, as a rule, characterized by uncertainty, irreversibility and flexibility. Simple net present value calculations will not account for these features. In many situations even flexible investment planning with decision trees, which represents the most advanced method of traditional investment appraisal, does not have the capacity to solve practical decision problems adequately. One handicap is a realistic and manageable representation of stochastic variables. It has long been known that stochastic simulation procedures offer a nearly unlimited capacity to represent distributions and stochastic processes. However, a standard simulation will not allow for the consideration of flexibility. The problem is that with a simple forward...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Investment; Uncertainty; Flexibility; Stochastic simulation; Dynamic programming; Sales contracts with fixed prices; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97437
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Dynamically Optimal Phosphorus Management and Agricultural Water Protection AgEcon
Iho, Antti; Laukkanen, Marita.
This paper puts forward a model of the role of phosphorus in crop production, soil phosphorus dynamics and phosphorus loading that integrates the salient economic and ecological features of agricultural phosphorus management. The model accounts for the links between phosphorus fertilization, crop yield, accumulation of soil phosphorus reserves, and phosphorus loading. It can be used to guide precision phosphorus management and erosion control as means to mitigate agricultural loading. Using a parameterization for cereal production in southern Finland, the model is solved numerically to analyze the intertemporally optimal combination of fertilization and erosion control and the associated soil phosphorus development. The optimal fertilizer application rate...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Precision nutrient management; Agricultural phosphorus loading; Cereal production; Soil phosphorus reserves; Agricultural water pollution; Dynamic programming; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54285
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WATER MANAGEMENT IN BANGLADESH AGRICULTURE: OPTIMAL USE AND INVESTMENT POLICIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AgEcon
Khan, Mohammad Ismail.
In Bangladesh, climatic change is likely to impact significantly upon surface and groundwater availability, as well as in other countries. The population of Bangladesh is projected to be double the current 2010 level by 2050. Demand for water will rise with the increasing demand for rice. This paper considers the optimal demand management of irrigation water with stochastic supply under climate change for a 3-year planning horizon. It also identifies the utilization of irrigation water from surface water sources to maximize the expected net social return from rice production. This is done by considering decision on dam release for rice production with reference to climate change. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed for analyzing the levels...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate change; Dam release; Dynamic programming; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100571
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Dynamics of Phosphorus Fertilization and Liming Under Land Tenure Insecurity AgEcon
Myyra, Sami; Pietola, Kyosti.
This article solves and characterizes optimal decision rules to invest in irreversible land improvements conditional on land tenure insecurity. Economic model is a normative dynamic programming model with known parameter for the one period returns and transition equations. The decision rules are solved numerically conditional on alternative scenarios on the likelihood that the lease contract and, thus, farmer access to land is either renewed or expires. The model parameters represent Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The results suggest that irreversible land improvements decrease quickly and the yields decline gradually when the farmer is confronted with land tenure insecurity caused by uncertain renewal of the lease contract.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Dynamic programming; Land Economics/Use; Q15; Q21.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24633
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An Incentive System for Salmonella Control in the Pork Supply Chain AgEcon
Backus, Ge B.C.; King, Robert P..
This paper presents a dynamic principal-agent analysis of an incentive system for Salmonella control in the pork supply chain. The incentive system determines quality premiums to the producer, testing frequencies for hogs delivered, as well as charges to the producer for testing and penalties. Using cost estimates and technical parameters, we evaluate the cost effectiveness of plant and farm control measures and trade-offs between prevalence reduction and related costs and gains. We also assess the impact of ownership structure on incentive system parameters and performance for a wide range of prevalence threshold levels. Differences in control actions, bacteriological prevalence and the overall welfare gain for the chain are very small across ownership...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dynamic programming; Food quality; Principal-agent; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9941
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Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change AgEcon
Lemoine, Derek M.; Traeger, Christian P..
Replaced with revised version of paper Feb 13, 2012 available at http://purl.umn.edu/120349
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Threshold; Climate; Integrated assessment; Regime shift; Ambiguity; Uncertainty; Dynamic programming; Social cost of carbon; Tipping point; Carbon tax; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; D90; D81.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98127
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The value of market uncertainty in a livestock epidemic AgEcon
Niemi, Jarkko K.; Lehtonen, Heikki.
Introduction of foot and mouth disease (FMD) into country typically initiates eradication procedures which remove animals from the market, and halts the export of livestock products from the infected country. The magnitude of these effects can be highly uncertain. This paper presents a stochastic dynamic programming model which simulates possible market implications of alternative FMD and export scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. It takes into account dynamics and adjustment of the animal stock, price movements and uncertainty related to the duration of the trade ban. Results suggest that losses to pig producers can increase considerably when the risk of prolonged export ban increases. Production adjustments also strengthen. Consumers can gain from a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Livestock epidemics; Dynamic programming; Demand; Supply; Export; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6158
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An Economic Analysis of Water Infrastructure Investments, Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in the Mekong Delta: Adapting to Increased Salinity and Sea Level Rise AgEcon
Corderi Novoa, David; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Howitt, Richard E.; Lund, Jay R..
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/24/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate change; Adaptation; Agriculture; Water resources; Dynamic programming; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q25; Q15.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103875
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Investment planning under uncertainty and flexibility: the case of a purchasable sales contract AgEcon
Musshoff, Oliver; Hirschauer, Norbert.
Investment decisions are not only characterised by irreversibility and uncertainty but also by flexibility with regard to the timing of the investment. This paper describes how stochastic simulation can be successfully integrated into a backward recursive programming approach in the context of flexible investment planning. We apply this hybrid approach to a marketing question from primary production which can be viewed as an investment problem: should grain farmers purchase sales contracts which guarantee fixed product prices over the next 10 years? The model results support the conclusion from dynamic investment theory that it is essential to take simultaneously account of uncertainty and flexibility.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Dynamic programming; Flexibility; Investment; Sales contract; Stochastic simulation; Uncertainty; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117741
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Insure or Invest in Green Technologies to Protect Against Adverse Weather Events? AgEcon
Pietola, Kyosti; Myyra, Sami; Niemi, Jarkko K.; Van Asseldonk, Marcel A.P.M..
This paper analyses investments in green technologies when insurance is also an option. Green technologies are defined to have the power to increase productivity and decrease volatility of future revenues. The insurance options involve the scale and coverage either in a yield insurance or in an index insurance. The stochastic process is a combination of insurable stationary short-run process and non-stationary long run process. The optimal decision rules are solved numerically by stochastic dynamic programming. The results suggest that the index insurance maintains market based incentives to invest in green technologies whereas a yield insurance substantially decreases investments, as expected. An actuarially fair yield insurance decreases investments at...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Investment; Insurance; Uncertainty; Dynamic programming; Green technology; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100738
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Trade-offs between conflicting animal welfare concerns and cow replacement strategy in out-wintering Scottish suckler herds AgEcon
Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda; Morgan, Colin A.; Stott, Alistair W..
Since decoupling of the CAP, many Scottish suckler cow farms are facing financial difficulties. In response, many farmers are out-wintering extensively managed suckler cows to minimise production costs. These systems are of animal welfare concern. A range of trade-offs between animal welfare indicators and between animal welfare and farm profitability can be identified. A Dynamic Programming (DP) model was developed to study these trade-offs. Two herds were modelled assuming their feeding regimes were either low (LHERD) or high (HHERD). The objective of the DP was to maximise the expected net margin from a current cow and its successors over an infinite time horizon. Preliminary results showed that the rate of voluntary culling was higher in HHERD than in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Beef cow; Economics; Dynamic programming; Animal welfare.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61122
Registros recuperados: 33
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