SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Djunaidi, Harjanto; Djunaidi, Andrew C.M..

Simulation results showed that simultaneous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Asia, the United States, Brazil, and selected European countries will have significant impacts on world poultry trade. Assuming demand for chicken meat is constant, the global export price is simulated to increase by 9.63%. HPAI outbreaks in the United States, Economic Union, and Brazil will have a greater impact on export price than in any other possible three-region case. Outbreaks in the United States and Brazil would still lead to major impacts on world poultry trade, confirming large country effects.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Bird flu; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Economic impacts; H5N1; HPAI disease; Spatial equilibrium; U.S. poultry industry; World chicken trade; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries; Q17; Q11; Q18; F14; F17; F47.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6539

The Art of Exceptions: Sensitive Products in the Doha Negotiations

Gouel, Christophe; Mitaritonna, Cristina; Ramos, Maria Priscila.

It is necessary for multilateral trade negotiations to include exceptions to accommodate politically sensitive sectors. However, given the highly concentrated distribution of agricultural protection, too many exceptions put at risk the objectives of World Trade Organization. This paper assesses the delicate balance required, based on the case of agricultural trade protection in Europe and Japan, two countries where tariff dismantling in the agricultural sector is a particularly sensitive issue. Since agricultural border protection is heterogeneous, we avoid aggregation bias by extending a multi-country computable general equilibrium model to the product level. This allows us to combine the assets from general equilibrium and partial equilibrium modeling,...

U.S.-Canadian Tomato Wars: An Economist Tries to Make Sense Out of Recent Antidumping Suits

Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Doha Development Agenda; CGE model; Disaggregation; Sensitive products; Tariff-rate quotas; Agricultural and Food Policy; C68; F13; F17; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115431

VanSickle, John J.; Evans, Edward A.; Emerson, Robert D..

U.S. growers filed an antidumping case against Canadian growers of greenhouse-grown tomatoes, alleging that U.S. growers were being injured, or threatened with material injury, by imports from Canada. The U.S. Department of Commerce determined that imports of greenhouse-grown tomatoes were being sold in U.S. markets at less than fair market value. The U.S. International Trade Commission determined the “like product” to be all fresh market tomatoes, concluding the domestic industry was not materially injured. Anecdotal evidence used by the Commission Department in determining like product ignores the wealth of knowledge that economics can add. An economic model is proposed for purposes of determining like product.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Antidumping; Law; Tomatoes; Trade; U.S.-Canada; F13; F17; K33; Q17.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37962

World Rice Outlook International Rice Baseline Projections, 2011-2020

Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C..

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: International rice; Baseline projections; Policy; Arkansas Global Rice Model; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Development; C02; F01; F14; F17; Q17; Q18; R11.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/112998

EU Trade Policies: Benchmarking Protection in a General Equilibrium Framework

Antimiani, Alessandro; Salvatici, Luca.

This paper deals with the EU's trade policy with two objectives: on the one hand, we study the performance of EU's preferential agreements in granting their partners improved market access; on the other hand, we assess the extent to which domestic sectors are effectively protected. As far as the first objective is concerned, we construct bilateral indicators of protection based on the applied tariffs faced by each exporter. In order to do this, an index of trade policy restrictiveness is computed, using the Mercantilistic Trade Restrictiveness Index as the tariff aggregator. We also analyze the protection granted to each sector by the existing tariff structure. In this report, we compute effective rates of protection that overcome the well-known...

Cattle Trade and the Risk of Importing Animal Diseases into the Netherlands

Palavras-chave: Protection; Commercial policy; GTAP model; International trade; International Relations/Trade; F13; Q17; F17.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18856

Achterbosch, Thom J.; Dopfer, Dorte D.V.; Tabeau, Andrzej A..

Projections of live cattle trade in the EU-25 assist to reduce the uncertainty on the risk of importing animal diseases in the Netherlands. The accession of 10 member states to the European Union has a potentially large impact on livestock trade in the EU as it liberalized in one stroke a trade that was administered by the Management Committee for Beef until May 1, 2004. The approach combines AG-Memod partial equilibrium with GTAP general equilibrium modelling in order to estimate the impact of quota liberalization. Quota removal will substantially alter the regional structure of livestock imports, as the share of new EU member states in the east triples to 25%. The risk outlook indicates a need for enhanced animal health services in the new member states.

Tariff-Rate Quotas and Agricultural Trade: An Application to the Agricultural Free-Trade Negotiation between the MERCOSUR and the EU

Palavras-chave: Livestock; Animal disease; Trade; Projections; Quota; EU-enlargement; Risk and Uncertainty; F17; I18; Q17.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24558

Drogue, Sophie; Ramos, Maria Priscila.

In October 2004 the European Union and the MERCOSUR tried to reach an agreement for creating what would be the world's largest free-trade area accounting for 650 millions people. But despite five years of bilateral work to strike a deal, the two parties stayed on ropes at their meeting in Portugal the 18th of October 2004. The stumbling blocks are the MERCOSUR's demand for a greater access to EU's agricultural markets and the EU's demand for expanded access for industrial goods, services and investments. Though, both partners made great efforts to comply with each other requests, it wasn't enough. In this paper we are interested in the possible last EU's offer to enlarge access to its market through the allocation of bilateral tariff-rate quotas for some...

Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza Related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare

Palavras-chave: MERCOSUR; European Union; Agricultural trade; TRQ; GTAP; International Relations/Trade; D58; F17; F15.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24637

Wieck, Christine; Schlueter, Simon W.; Britz, Wolfgang.

We use two methodological approaches to analyze avian influenza related quarantine measures. First, a Heckman type gravity model is used to estimate the trade impact and second, a spatial partial equilibrium simulation model is developed to simulate welfare changes. The simulation model considers spread and transmission risk according to the disease status of the importing country as well as parameter uncertainty of the calibrated coefficients by using a Monte Carlo approach. The econometric results show that the principle of regionalization is preferred to import trade bans for uncooked meat. The simulation results verify the negative welfare impact of currently implemented regulatory policies and indicate that significant trade diversion effects...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Animal disease; Quarantine measure; Non-tariff measure; Welfare; Gravity model; Simulation model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; F14; F17; Q11; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122022

Welfare Implications of Washington Wheat Breeding Programs

Nogueira, Lia; Marsh, Thomas L..

We calculate the welfare effects of the WSU wheat breeding programs for producers and consumers in Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, the United States and the rest of the world. We develop a partial equilibrium multi-region, multi-product, multi-variety trade model for wheat that provides consumer, producer and total surplus for each wheat class and region. Our results provide evidence suggesting that WSU wheat breeding programs have increased welfare in Washington State, in the United States and the rest of the world.

Removing Distortions in the U.S. Ethanol Market: What Does It Imply for the United States and Brazil?

Palavras-chave: Welfare; Wheat breeding programs; Economic surplus; Partial equilibrium; Agribusiness; F14; F17; Q11; Q16; Q18.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93419

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla.

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization and removal of the federal tax credit in the United States on U.S. and Brazilian ethanol markets using a multi-market international ethanol model calibrated on 2005 market data and policies. The removal of trade distortions induces a 23.9 percent increase in the price of world ethanol on average between 2006 and 2015 relative to the baseline. The U.S. domestic ethanol price decreases by 13.6 percent, which results in a 7.2 percent decline in production and a 3.8 percent increase in consumption. The lower domestic price leads to a 3.7 percent rise in the share of fuel ethanol in gasoline consumption. U.S. net ethanol imports increase by 199 percent. Brazil responds to the higher world ethanol price by increasing...

Modelling Euro-Mediterranean Agricultural Trade

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Trade liberalization; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; F13; F17; Q17; Q18; Q42.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9808

Garcia Alvarez-Coque, Jose-Maria; Martinez-Gomez, Victor; Villanueva, Miquel.

This paper examines the methodological problems to define a modelling approach to assess the impact of full or limited bilateral liberalisation of agricultural trade flows in the Euro-Mediterranean region. The bilateral trade liberalisation process in the region is framed by complexity, in policy instruments and in the characteristics of the products, in particular fruits and vegetables. Advantages and disadvantages of the general equilibrium and partial equilibrium approaches to simulate trade policy impacts are assessed. Caveats of existing models are related to the representation of specific policy instruments (tariffs, entry prices and other non-tariff measures) and on the seasonal nature of horticultural trade, which is of major importance in the...

Allowing for Group Effects When Estimating Import Demand for Source and Product Differentiated Goods

Palavras-chave: Agriculture in International Trade; Trade Forecasting and Simulation; Commercial Policy; Protection; Promotion; Trade Negotiations; International Organizations; International Relations/Trade; Q17; F17; F13.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18875

Muhammad, Andrew.

In this study an import demand model (differential production model) is presented that is used in estimating the demand for source and product differentiated goods simultaneously. Unlike the traditional import demand models, this model can account for changes in relative group expenditures. Expenditure estimates differed when comparing the differential production model and Rotterdam model results. Results showed that if group revenue shares are relatively fixed, then the bias in expenditure estimates due to omitting group effects will be small when using traditional demand models such as the AIDS or Rotterdam models. As relative group shares significantly change and diverge the bias increases, particularly for imports representing a larger share of group...

How does tariff-rate quota modelling affect CGE results? An application for MIRAGE

Palavras-chave: Import demand; AIDS model; Rotterdam model; Product differentiation; Source differentiation; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q17; Q11..

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6364

Decreux, Yvan; Ramos, Maria Priscila.

Since the Uruguay Round Agricultural Agreement (URAA) entered into force in 1994, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) have become the most widely used trade policy instrument to improve agricultural market access while at the same time controlling import volumes. Until now, the MIRAGE CGE model only takes into account the exogenous quota rents (MAcMap-HS6 database) allocated entirely to exporters. Unfortunately, this methodology does not authorise any regime when trade policy changes (e.g. a quota-volume increase for very sensitive agricultural products or a tariff reduction). In order to improve the treatment of TRQs in MIRAGE we model them as bilateral TRQs at the HS6 level using MAcMapHS6-v2 database. Assuming a simple scenario of bilateral trade agreement...

Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies?

Palavras-chave: Tariff-rate quota; TRQ; TRQ administration methods; CGE model; MIRAGE; International Relations/Trade; F13; F15; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7206

Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna.

Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and Korea and Taiwan from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, China and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy which compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviors to 2030. Projected impacts on...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth and structural change; South-South trade; Booming sector economics; Food security; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; D58; F13; F15; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124192

Agricultural trade liberalisation in the Doha Round: impacts on Spain

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: SUBSTITUTES OR COMPLEMENTS?

Philippidis, George.

Whilst there is a growing literature of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies examining the impacts of the current Doha Proposals, estimates for the EU are highly aggregated (i.e., EU15). Employing a detailed baseline scenario and a plausible Doha outcome, we examine the long run costs for the European Union, in particular focusing on Spain. Moreover, we implement recent CAP reforms through explicitly modelling of CAP mechanisms to provide greater credibility in assessing the long run asymmetric budgetary and welfare impacts on EU member states. Our estimates forecast resource substitution effects between Spanish agro-food sectors and resource shifts from agro-food activities into manufacturing and services production. In Spain, the impacts of...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Doha Round; Spain; EU; CAP; Computable General Equilibrium.; F1; F13; F17; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28790

Marchant, Mary A.; Cornell, Dyana N.; Koo, Won W..

International agricultural trade has evolved over time. Processed foods and developing countries have become major growth markets for U.S. agricultural exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) has become even more important than exports as a means of accessing foreign markets. The critical question is whether FDI is a substitute for or a complement of exports. This research builds upon an existing theoretical FDI model and contributes to the literature through the development of a simultaneous equation system for FDI and exports, which is estimated using two-stage least squares. Empirical analyses were used to examine the relationship between U.S. FDI and exports of processed foods into East Asian countries - China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea,...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: East Asia; Exports; Foreign direct investment; International trade; Processed foods; International Relations/Trade; F47; Q17; C3; F17.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15471

Increasing the United States Tariff-Rate Sugar Quota for Cuba and Mexico: A Partial-Equilibrium Simulation

Petrolia, Daniel R.; Kennedy, P. Lynn.

Increases in the United States tariff-rate quota for sugar are simulated to determine the impact of Cuban market access and an increased Mexican allotment. The effects on both domestic and international sugar markets, including production, consumption, prices and trade, are determined and welfare effects identified. This analysis is carried out using a partial-equilibrium simplified world trade model, Modele International Simplifie de Simulation (MISS), which simulates, in a comparative-static framework, the effects of various policy actions.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Cuba; Mexico; Sugar; Tariff-rate quota; F13; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43200

Welfare Gains under Tradeable CO₂ Permits

Karp, Larry S.; Liu, Xuemei.

Most environmentalists favor the reduction in CO2 emissions but oppose international trade in emissions permits Although economic theory provides a strong case in favor of trade in permits) there is little empirical evidence of the size of potential benefits. We estimate the benefits of this trade for OECD countries.

Reform in the EU Sugar Regime: Impact on the Global Sugar Markets

Palavras-chave: Tradeable permits; Greenhouse gasses; Carbon reductions; Environmental Economics and Policy; F17; Q28; Q43.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6254

Huan-Niemi, Ellen; Kerkela, Leena.

The ongoing trade negotiations, unilateral trade concessions and obligations under the WTO are pushing the EU sugar regime to undertake reforms. These reforms will alter the positions of developing countries in the global sugar markets. A complete unilateral liberalisation of the EU sugar sector is simulated to depict the winners and losers in the global sugar markets if no preferences are governing the imports of sugar into the EU. The supply responses, which strongly affect the outcomes, are dependent on both the nature of substitution for sugar as well as on the efficiency of sugar production in different countries. The multiregion general equilibrium framework (GTAP) is used for this analysis. The results show that the total liberalisation of sugar...

Regionalism vs. Multilateralism: assessing the impact of free trade agreements between EU and Asian Countries

Palavras-chave: EU sugar regime; Reform; Developing countries; Unilateral liberalisation; GTAP; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; E17; F17; Q18.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24733

Antimiani, Alessandro; Mitaritonna, Cristina; Salvatici, Luca; Santuccio, Federica.

In 2006 the EU decided to abandon its moratorium on negotiating new free trade agreements. Since then, numerous negotiations have been started. In particular, the EU joined in the scramble for preferential market access in Asia, starting bilateral negotiations both with individual countries, as in the case of India and South Korea, and with regional subgroupings, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the effects of the possible agreements between the EU and the Asian countries. We want to evaluate the impact of the free trade agreements by themselves, their mutual compatibility as well as their relations with the larger agenda of multilateral trade...