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The 2008/09 Food Price and Food Security Situation in Eastern and Southern Africa: Implications for Immediate and Longer Run Responses. AgEcon
Jayne, Thomas S.; Chapoto, Antony; Minde, Isaac J.; Donovan, Cynthia.
The dramatic rise in world food prices since 2007 has commanded the world’s attention. However, in recent months, world food prices have fallen almost as rapidly as they had risen in late 2007 and early 2008, yet as is demonstrated in this report, domestic food price levels in many eastern and southern African markets are not closely tracking world prices. Fertilizer prices remain at unprecedentedly high levels and may have a critical influence on future food production levels in the region. Against this backdrop, there is an urgent need for information about how the current food situation is unfolding in the region, the immediate policy response options, and the longer-term challenges and opportunities. This study has three objectives: 1) to examine the...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Africa; Food security; Price; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Q11.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54556
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Estimation of a Censored Demand System in Stratified Sampling: An Analysis of Mexican Meat Demand at the Table Cut Level. AgEcon
Lopez, Jose Antonio; Malaga, Jaime E..
Evidence of meat trade in the form of table cuts suggests that consumer preferences and tastes vary across meat cuts. Unlike previous studies, this paper estimates demand elasticities at the table cut level from a Mexican survey of household incomes and expenditures, which is a stratified sample. The study uses the two-step estimation of a censored demand system proposed by Shonkwiler and Yen (1999) but incorporates stratification variables into the estimation procedure. Parameter estimates are reported and its standard errors are approximated by using the bootstrap procedure.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Censored demand system; Two-step estimation procedure; Stratified sampling; Mexican meat demand; Elasticities; Adult equivalent scales; Bootstrap standard errors; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Q11.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46294
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The Potential Effects on United States Agriculture of an Avian Influenza Outbreak AgEcon
Brown, Scott; Madison, Daniel; Goodwin, Harold L., Jr.; Clark, F. Dustan.
The U.S. poultry industry has spent considerable resources to date preparing for an outbreak of avian influenza in this country. This research quantifies the potential effects of two alternative avian influenza scenarios on the poultry industry. In addition, this research looks at effects on other agriculture sectors including the loss of feed demand from an outbreak and the impacts on aggregate measures like farm income and consumer food expenditures. The economic sector model maintained by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) is employed for these scenarios.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Avian influenza; Disease outbreak; Econometric model; Poultry production; Poultry trade; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries; Q11; Q18; Q17; Q13.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6516
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ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF A BAN AGAINST ANTIMICROBIAL DRUGS USED IN U.S. BEEF PRODUCTION AgEcon
Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr..
Economic effects for three scenarios of antimicrobial drug use in livestock production -- a no-ban scenario and two levels of bans -- are examined through cost minimization and a partial equilibrium analysis. Results indicate that regulating antimicrobial drug use in livestock production would increase per-unit costs of producers previously using drugs and reduce beef supplies in the short run, reducing consumer surplus. Producers not previously using drugs would benefit from short-run price increases.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Antimicrobial drug; Ban; Beef production; Cost minimization; Feed efficiency; Growth function; Growth promotant; Livestock Production/Industries; C61; D21; D41; I118; Q11; Q12; Q18; R38.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15068
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The Nexus Land-Use Model, an Approach Articulating Biophysical Potentials and Economic Dynamics to Model AgEcon
Souty, Francois; Brunelle, Thierry; Dumas, Patrice; Dorin, Bruno; Ciais, Philippe; Crassous, Renaud.
Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Land-use Change; Modelling; Global Biomass Projections; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q11; Q15.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122859
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Organic Farming and the New CAP - Results for the Austrian Agricultural Sector AgEcon
Schmid, Erwin; Sinabell, Franz.
In 2003, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has been reformed and decoupling direct payments from farm output is one of its core elements. We estimate the likely responses in organic product supply due to the reform at regional and sectoral levels. In addition, we analyse how the new programme for rural development, to be implemented in 2007, might affect organic farming. Our results show that organic farming will become more attractive after the 2003 CAP reform in Austria. Our results support the view that interactions among agri-environmental measures affect farmers' choice to maintain, abandon or adopt organic farming practices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural sector modelling; Common Agricultural Policy; Organic farming; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q11; Q18; Q21.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24671
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The Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza on World Poultry Trade and the U.S. Poultry Industry: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis AgEcon
Djunaidi, Harjanto; Djunaidi, Andrew C.M..
Simulation results showed that simultaneous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Asia, the United States, Brazil, and selected European countries will have significant impacts on world poultry trade. Assuming demand for chicken meat is constant, the global export price is simulated to increase by 9.63%. HPAI outbreaks in the United States, Economic Union, and Brazil will have a greater impact on export price than in any other possible three-region case. Outbreaks in the United States and Brazil would still lead to major impacts on world poultry trade, confirming large country effects.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Bird flu; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Economic impacts; H5N1; HPAI disease; Spatial equilibrium; U.S. poultry industry; World chicken trade; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries; Q17; Q11; Q18; F14; F17; F47.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6539
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Staple Food Prices in Ethiopia AgEcon
Rashid, Shahidur.
Prepared for the COMESA policy seminar on “Variation in staple food prices: Causes, consequence, and policy options”, Maputo, Mozambique, 25‐26 January 2010 under the African Agricultural Marketing Project (AAMP)
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ethiopia; Food security; Food prices; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade; Q11; Q18; Q17.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58552
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Milchproduktion im Übergang - eine Analyse von regionalen Potenzialen und Gestaltungsspielräumen AgEcon
Lassen, Birthe J.; Isermeyer, Folkhard; Friedrich, Carina.
Zusammenfassung: In der vorliegenden Studie erfolgt eine regional differenzierte Analyse der Milchproduktion. Grundlage sind neben zahlreichen agrarstatistischen Quellen auch Expertenpanels in ausgewählten Regionen. Es werden Schlussfolgerungen über die künftige Standortorientierung der Milchproduktion innerhalb Deutschlands abgeleitet und mögliche Begleitmaßnahmen zum Quotenausstieg bewertet. Die Abschaffung der kleinräumigen Quotenhandelsgebiete hat Produktionsverlagerungen über Ländergrenzen hinweg ermöglicht. Es ist zu erwarten, dass sich die Milchproduktion weiter auf wenige Produktionszentren verstärkt. Die Milchproduktion wird somit vermehrt auf Grünlandstandorte wandern; allerdings gibt es auch Grünlandstandorte, die Produktionsanteile verlieren....
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Milchproduktion; Milchquote; Begleitmaßnahmen; Produktionskosten; Standortanalyse; Dairy production; Milk quota; Production costs; Analysis of location factors; Accompanying measures with regard to the possible milk quota exit; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Q11; Q12; Q14; Q18.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108253
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Milchverarbeitung und -vermarktung in Deutschland - eine deskriptive Analyse der Wertschöpfungskette AgEcon
Friedrich, Carina.
Zusammenfassung: Die Wertschöpfungskette Milch in Deutschland steht vor der Herausforderung, sich in einem zunehmend liberalisierten Milch- und Milchproduktmarkt zu behaupten. Neben der Milchproduktion hat in der Wertschöpfungskette vor allem die Milchverarbeitung eine zentrale Funktion. Diese veredelt den international relativ homogenen Rohstoff Milch zu sehr unterschiedlichen Produkten. Die speziellen Produkteigenschaften von Milch (geringe Transportwürdigkeit und Lagerfähigkeit) erfordern zudem eine sehr enge Kopplung der beiden Wertschöpfungsstufen Milchproduktion und -verarbeitung. Dabei stehen sich in der Wertschöpfungskette viele Landwirte und einige Molkereien einem stark konzentrierten Lebensmitteleinzelhandel gegenüber. Die Molkereistruktur ist...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Wertschöpfungskette Milch; Milchwirtschaft; Molkereistruktur; SAtrukturanalyse; Dairy supply chain; Dairy economy; Structure of milk processing; Structure analysis; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Q11; Q13; L66.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108262
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Smallholder Marketing Behavior and Urban Consumption Patterns in Eastern and Southern Africa AgEcon
Accurate information on farmer and consumer behavior is the foundation for identifying public investments and policies that can effectively promote national food security and income growth objectives. This policy brief summarizes recent findings from a study on smallholder crop marketing behavior and urban consumption patterns in Eastern and Southern Africa.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Food security; Africa; Food policy; Marketing; Smallholders; Consumption; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Development; Marketing; Q18; Q11; Q12.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62155
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WTO Doha Round: Impact of an Agreement on Agriculture and the Importance of Sensitive Products AgEcon
Binfield, Julian C.R.; Donnellan, Trevor; Hanrahan, Kevin F.; Westhoff, Patrick C..
The Doha round of WTO negotiations has been ongoing since 2001. In the summer of 2008 the negotiations on the modalities for a new WTO agriculture agreement collapsed when seemingly on the verge of a successful conclusion. In this paper we present quantitative analysis of the impact of a new WTO agreement undertaken using a partial equilibrium model of Irish and EU agriculture. Results are presented on the agreement’s impact on Irish and EU-27 agriculture markets and on Irish agricultural sector incomes. Our analysis highlights the importance of the Baseline counter-factual, and will illustrate that protection afforded by the conferral of sensitive product status differs from commodity to commodity. The paper will draw conclusions concerning the economic...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: WTO; Agriculture; Policy analysis; Partial equilibrium modelling; Baseline; Scenario analysis; Tariffs; Tariff rate quota; Sensitive products; International Relations/Trade; Q11; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50936
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INFLUENCES OF THE GOVERNMENTAL MARKET INTERVENTIONS ON WHEAT MARKETS IN SERBIA DURING THE FOOD CRISIS 2007/2008 AgEcon
Djuric, Ivan; Goetz, Linde; Glauben, Thomas.
This paper analyzes how the market interventions of the Serbian government during the food crisis 2007/2008, inter alia a de facto export ban, have affected domestic wheat markets. Besides a comprehensive description of the crisis policy and its effects on the Serbian wheat market, we investigate how it influences the equilibrium and stability of the Serbian wheat market and its integration with the world market within a price transmission model. Applying a Markov-switching error correction model to weekly wheat grower prices in Serbia and world market prices, two states of the wheat market are identified. Our results suggest that although the long-run price elasticity did not change during the crisis, the market equilibrium was disrupted and the market...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International market integration; Markov-Switching Error Correction Model; Serbia; Wheat market; World market price transmission; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; C34; Q11; Q13; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114438
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Brazil's Changing Food Demand Challenges the Farm Sector AgEcon
Valdes, Constanza; Lopes, Ignez Vidigal; Lopes, Mauro de Rezende.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Q11; Q13.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94725
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Correction of Measurement Error in Monthly USDA Pig Crop: Generating Alternative Data Series AgEcon
Kim, In Seck; Plain, Ronald L.; Bullock, J. Bruce; Jei, Sang Young.
The imputed pig death loss contained in the reported monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) pig crop data over the December 1995–June 2006 period ranged from 24.93% to 12.75%. Clearly, there are substantial measurement errors in the USDA monthly pig crop data. In this paper, we present alternative monthly U.S. pig crop data using the biological production process, which is compatible with prior knowledge of the U.S. hog industry. Alternative pig crop data are applied to a slaughter hog model and tested comparatively to USDA pig crop. Test results reject the validity of USDA pig crop data in favor of the alternative data.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biological production process; Measurement error; Monthly USDA pig crop data; Pig death loss; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Q11; Q13; C12.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47208
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ENSO AND SOYBEAN PRICES: CORRELATION WITHOUT CAUSALITY AgEcon
Letson, David; McCullough, B.D..
In this paper we seek to characterize the robustness of the ENSO/soybean price relationship and to determine whether it has practical economic content. If such a meaningful relationship exists, the implications could be profound for commodity traders and for public sector investments in climate forecasting capabilities. Also, the validity of economic evaluations of climate impacts and climate forecasts based on ENSO-price independence would come into question. Our findings suggest a relationship between interannual climate and soybean prices, although we are not able to attribute the relationship to ENSO or to say the ENSO is economically important.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate forecasting; Granger causality; Spectral analysis; SOI; SST; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C22; Q11.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15443
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Impact of Beef Quality on Market Signals Transmitted by Grid Pricing AgEcon
Johnson, Heather C.; Ward, Clement E..
Value-based marketing is shaping cattle production; however, market signals differ dramatically depending on carcass quality. This study applies a two-stage coefficients of separate determination procedure to four regional fed cattle datasets sorted by grid value and by carcass quality attributes. Weight is the strongest signal sent when higher valued cattle and better quality cattle are sold on a grid. Quality characteristics send stronger signals when lower valued cattle and poorer quality cattle are sold on a grid. Producers of lower quality cattle can potentially gain $52 to $149 per head by improving quality and $113 to $150 per head by adding weight.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Beef; Cattle; Carcass; Quality; Coefficients of separate determination; Incentives; Market signals; Value-based marketing; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Q11; Q13.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43750
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Does Price Asymmetry Exist In Commodity and Energy Markets? AgEcon
Wixson, Sarah E.; Katchova, Ani L..
Recent increases in the price of crude oil have led to a rise in the prominence of corn-based ethanol as an alternative source of energy. As a result linkages have been established between commodity and energy prices. The aim of this study is to determine if soybeans, corn, wheat, oil, and ethanol adjust their prices asymmetrically depending on whether their actual price is over- or under-predicted with respect to one another. This study’s goal of determining if asymmetric price relationships exist is accomplished by using monthly time series price data incorporated into a distributed lag error correction model distinguishing between positive and negative price difference and positive and negative values of the error correction term. The primary results...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Asymmetric price adjustment; Grain prices; Crude oil prices; Ethanol prices; Error correction model; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q11; Q13; Q42.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103735
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DER TÜRKISCHE TOMATENSEKTOR – REGIONALE GESICHTSPUNKTE UND RÄUMLICHE MARKTINTEGRATION AgEcon
Weitzel, Enno-Burghard; Keskin, Gulsen; Brosig, Stephan.
Tomatoes have the largest share among fruits and vegetables, which add substantially to the gross agricultural product in Turkey. We describe the structure and development of this sector from the year 1990 onwards, covering farms in primal production, trade facilities, processing firms, and marketing channels. An analysis of retail prices for table tomatoes in 22 provinces and their dynamics follows. Finally we employ a threshold vector error-correction model to analyse integration among the markets for table tomatoes in the presence of transaction costs. The results show a ring of integrated provinces along the coasts of Turkey, while the interior provinces are rather separated. In some cases price transmission only occurs when deviations from an...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Gemüse; Tomaten; Türkei; Marktintegration; Fehlerkorrekturmodell; Tomatoes; Turkey; Spatial market integration.; Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Marketing; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Q11; Q13; C22; L11.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91910
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Returns in Commodities Futures Markets and Financial Speculation: A Multivariate GARCH Approach AgEcon
Manera, Matteo; Nicolini, Marcella; Vignati, Ilaria.
This paper analyses futures prices for four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) and five agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybean oil, soybeans and wheat), over the period 1986-2010. Using CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models, we find that financial speculation is poorly significant in modelling returns in commodities futures while macroeconomic factors help explaining returns in commodities futures. Moreover, spillovers between commodities are present and the conditional correlations among commodities are high and time-varying.
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Energy; Commodities; Futures Markets; Financial Speculation; Multivariate GARCH; Financial Economics; C32; G13; Q11; Q43.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122868
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