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Risk analysis in the spillway of dam Orós by excess of influent flow Anais da ABC (AABC)
Goes Filho,Adbeel.
This paper presents the practical application of concepts, and some methods of risk analysis, to check the possibility of overcoming a water level of project in the spillway of dam Orós, by excess of influent flow. Also evaluated the empirical formulas contained in the original design. Due to the difficulty of obtaining design data from the dam, since the end of construction date of January, 11, 1961, we minimize the effects of some variables in the calculations, leading us to the consequent simplification of the scenario under study. For a better evaluation and characterization of the setting, some variables in the model such as water level, accumulation and flow of the spillway, had updated their data to June 28, 2011. We have demonstrated the importance...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Public dams; Reservoirs; Water resources management.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652013000100405
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Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation BJMBR
Reis,M.A.M.; Ortega,N.R.S.; Silveira,P.S.P..
In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Fuzzy sets; Risk analysis; Medical expert systems; Perinatal asphyxia; Neonatal resuscitation.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X2004000500018
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Evaluation of Risk Factors in Agriculture: An Application of the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) Methodology Chilean J. Agric. Res.
Toledo,Roger; Engler,Alejandra; Ahumada,Víctor.
Risk in the agricultural sector has multiple dimensions or factors and prioritization of these can support decision making. On the other hand, knowing the importance of these risk factors for distinct agricultural activities and how they vary according to geographic zone constitutes relevant information for agricultural development. The objective of this study was to prioritize risk factors that are highly relevant for farmers in Central South Chile. The multi-criteria Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) methodology was used to define a decision structure with four risk factors or criteria: climate, price and direct cost variability, human factor, and commercialization. In general, results obtained showed that there are no important imbalances in the...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; AHP; Multi-criteria decisions.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-58392011000100014
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Deterministic economic analysis of feedlot Red Angus young steers: slaughter weights and bonus Ciência Rural
Pacheco,Paulo Santana; Vaz,Fabiano Nunes; Restle,João; Ávila,Mozer Manetti de; Olegario,Janaine Leal; Menezes,Fernanda Rezer de; Valença,Karoline Gomes; Lemes,Daniel Batista; Vargas,Fabiano Vargas de.
The joint analysis of indicators of the investment project is very relevant in making decisions, resulting in more consistent information regarding risk assessment and its confrontation with the possibility of return. This research aimed to evaluate the economic feasibility of Red Angus young steers finished in feedlot, slaughtered at 340, 373, 396 or 430kg with use of various financial indicators, marketed with or without bonus. The purchase of feeder cattle and feeding were variable costs with a higher share in the total cost. In the analysis with bonus, the regression analysis to gross margin, net margin, net present value, benefit:cost index and additional return on investment showed quadratic behavior, with the point of maximum at 406kg (R$ 185.17),...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Investment analysis; Risk analysis; Beef cattle; Ideal slaughter weight; Termination system.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-84782015000300492
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Conservación y caracterización de Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco en la zona centro de México Colegio de Postgraduados
Ventura Ríos, Araceli.
Se ubicaron 29 poblaciones naturales de Pseudotsuga menziesii en Hidalgo, Tlaxcala y Puebla, con un estimado de 9,029 árboles adultos, en 682 ha que se ubican desde 2,450 a 3,400 m s.n.m. Las localidades son de clima templado, con temperatura media anual de 10.1 a 14.0 °C y precipitación de 611 a 1,109 mm anuales. Pseudotsuga convive con Abies religiosa y varias especies de Pinus y Quercus, en exposiciones N, NO y NE. Los suelos son de pH ligeramente ácidos, ricos en materia orgánica y clase textural franco-arenosa o franca. El tamaño poblacional varía de 4 a 1,450 árboles maduros; 11 de éstas menos de 100 individuos adultos, con poca repoblación natural en todas ellas. Existe gran fragmentación en su distribución natural. Con base en un análisis de...
Tipo: Tesis Palavras-chave: Pinabete; Abeto Douglas; Caracterización ecológica; Conservación de poblaciones; Movimiento de semillas; Análisis de riesgos; Proceso de Análisis Jerarquizado (PAJ).; Maestría; Forestal; Douglas-fir; Ecological characterization; Population conservation; Seed movement; Risk analysis; Analytical hierarchy process (AHP).
Ano: 2009 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/1566
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Rethinking the Risk Management Process for Genetically Engineered Crop Varieties in Small-scale, Traditionally Based Agriculture Ecology and Society
Cleveland, David A; University of California, Santa Barbara; cleveland@es.ucsb.edu; Soleri, Daniela; University of California, Santa Barbara; soleri@es.ucsb.edu.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agricultural biotechnology; Biological diversity; Biological invasion; Crop genetic resources; Farmer participation in risk evaluation; Gene flow; Genetic engineering; Risk analysis; Risk management process; Traditionally based agricultural systems compared with industrial agriculture systems; Transgenes; Transgenic crop varieties.
Ano: 2005
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Characterizing Species at Risk II: Using Bayesian Belief Networks as Decision Support Tools to Determine Species Conservation Categories Under the Northwest Forest Plan Ecology and Society
Marcot, Bruce G; USDA Forest Service; bmarcot@fs.fed.us; Hohenlohe, Paul A; Oregon State University; hohenlop@science.oregonstate.edu; Morey, Steve; USDI Fish and Wildlife Service; steven_morey@fws.gov; Holmes, Russ; USDA Forest Service; russellholmes@fs.fed.us; Molina, Randy; USDA Forest Service; rmolina@fs.fed.us; Turley, Marianne C; USDI Bureau of Land Management; mturley@fs.fed.us; Huff, Mark H; USDI Fish and Wildlife Service; Mark_Huff@fws.gov; Laurence, John A; USDA Forest Service; jalaurence@fs.fed.us.
We developed a set of decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) that represented a complex set of evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive management process that evaluated new scientific information under the Northwest Forest Plan. The models were not prescriptive but helped resource managers and specialists to evaluate complicated and at times conflicting conservation guidelines and to reduce bias and uncertainty in evaluating the scientific data. We concluded that applying the BBN modeling framework to...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Bayesian belief networks; Decision models; Expert panels; Risk analysis; Northwest Forest Plan; Species conservation..
Ano: 2006
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Genetically Modified Organisms at the Crossroads: Comments on "Genetically Modified Crops: Risks and Promise" by Gordon Conway Ecology and Society
Walker, Brian; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems; Brian.Walker@csiro.au; Lonsdale, Mark; CSIRO Entomology; mark.lonsdale@ento.csiro.au.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: GMO technology; Agriculture; Ecosystem effects; Genetically modified organisms; Indirect effects; Introduced species; Risk analysis; Risk assessment.
Ano: 2000
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Economic analysis for oregano under irrigation considering economic risk factors Horticultura Brasileira
Marques,Patricia Angélica A; Bernardi Filho,Lineu; Frizzone,José Antônio.
The oregano is a plant, rich in essential oil and very used as spice in the preparation of foods. The objective of this paper was to analyze the viability of irrigation for oregano in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo state, Brazil, including economic risk factors, their effect on irrigation total cost, as well as the different pumping kinds. The Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to study the economic factors: fixed cost, labor, maintenance, pumping and water. The use of irrigation for the oregano in the region of Presidente Prudente is indicated because of its economic feasibility and the reduced risks. The average values of the benefit/cost for all water depths tested were higher than 1, indicating viability. The use of irrigation promoted lower risks...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Origanum vulgare; Pumping; Economic viability; Risk analysis; Medicinal plants.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-05362012000200009
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Driblando riscos no campo. Infoteca-e
LOPES, M. A..
Gestão de riscos no campo é tema estratégico para o Brasil, uma vez que grande parte das nossas atividades agropecuárias é desenvolvida a céu aberto, exposta a todo tipo de incertezas. Tais pressões possuem efeitos multiplicadores que se propagam muito além das lavouras e criações, devido a impactos na renda, no abastecimento, na redução de empregos e na arrecadação de impostos. Por isso, falhas na gestão de riscos no campo podem levar a severos prejuízos na produção de bens que afetam muitos outros componentes da economia, além de agravar situações de pobreza e exclusão nas regiões mais pobres. Felizmente o Brasil está dando passos sólidos nessa direção. Para superar essa dificuldade, a Embrapa mobilizou uma grande rede de parceiros e integrou volumes...
Tipo: Artigo na mídia Palavras-chave: Zoneamento Agrícola de Risco Climático (Zarc); Risco; Zoneamento Agrícola; Zoneamento Climático; Análise de Risco; Risco Climático; Risk; Agricultural zoning; Risk analysis.
Ano: 2019 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/1123781
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Zoneamento de risco edáfico de morte de pastagens de Brachiaria Brizantha cv. Marandu no município de Rio Branco-AC. Infoteca-e
SILVA, S. S. da; VALENTIM, J. F.; AMARAL, E. F. do; MELO, A. W. F. de.
A gramínea forrageira Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu possui intolerância a solos sujeitos ao alagamento temporário, ocasionando a síndrome da morte do braquiarão (SMB). Como parte do Zoneamento Econômico, Ambiental, Social e Cultural de Rio Branco (ZEAS), este estudo teve como objetivo indicar as zonas de risco edáco à morte de pastagens como uma das estratégias de apoio à gestão territorial sustentável no Município.
Tipo: Folhetos Palavras-chave: Capim Marandu; Brachiaria brizantha cv Marandu; Rio Branco (AC); Acre; Amazônia Ocidental; Western Amazon; Amazonia Occidental; Análisis del riesgo; Mortalidad; Pastizales; Pastos forrajeros; Zonificación; Pastagem; Gramínea forrageira; Capim Brachiaria; Brachiaria brizantha; Mortalidade; Análise de risco; Zoneamento ecológico; Pastures; Forage grasses; Urochloa brizantha; Mortality; Risk analysis; Zoning.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/658014
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Etrace Express: manual de programa para análisis de riesgo de elementos traza en fertilizantes inorgánicos. Infoteca-e
MARCHI, G.; GUILHERME, L. R. G.; SILVA, A. B. DA; GONÇALVES, V. C.; PINHO, P. J. DE; PIERANGELI, M. A. P.; DANTAS, O. D.; HURTADO, S. M. C..
Tipo: Folhetos Palavras-chave: Software; Elemento-traço; Contaminação do solo; Fertilizer; Trace element; Soil contamination; Fertilizante; Segurança Alimentar; Food security; Risk analysis.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/898139
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Metodologia para análise de rentabilidade e riscos de sistemas agroflorestais. Infoteca-e
SANTOS, J. C. dos; CAMPOS, R. T..
Este trabalho propõe uma metodologia para avaliação da rentabilidade e riscos de sistemas agroflorestais e de cada um dos seus componentes culturais, através da combinação da técnica Monte Carlo, comumente utilizada para avaliar riscos em investimentos, com um método de rateio dos custos comuns entre os componentes culturais, possibilitando a análise do sistema como um todo e a análise isolada de cada um desses componentes.
Tipo: Folhetos Palavras-chave: Sistema agroflorestal (SAF); Agroforrstería; Análisis de costo-beneficio; Rentabilidad; Método Monte Carlo; Análisis del riesgo; Agrossilvicultura; Implantação de Cultura; Rentabilidade; Análise de Custo-Benefício; Risco; Cost benefit analysis; Risk analysis; Profitability; Monte Carlo method; Agroforestry.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/495387
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Etrace Express: software for risk analysis of trace elements in inorganic fertilizers - user's manual and reference guide. Infoteca-e
MARCHI, G.; GUILHERME, L. R. G.; SILVA, A. B. DA; GONÇALVES, V. C.; PINHO, P. J. DE; PIERANGELI, M. A. P.; DANTAS, O. D..
Tipo: Folhetos Palavras-chave: Software; Elementos-traço; Contaminação do solo; Fertilizer; Trace element; Soil contamination; Fertilizante; Segurança Alimentar; Food security; Risk analysis.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/898281
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Farmer monitoring reveals the effect of tidal height on mortality risk of oysters during a herpesvirus outbreak ArchiMer
Pernet, Fabrice; Gachelin, Sonia; Stanisière, Jean-yves; Petton, Bruno; Fleury, Elodie; Mazurié, Joseph.
The intertidal zone is characterized by a sharp vertical gradient of environmental stress, which structures species distribution and their interactions. Few studies, however, have examined the influence of tidal height on host–pathogen interactions. Here, we investigated how the tidal height influence outbreak of the Ostreid herpesvirus type 1 (OsHV-1) affecting the Pacific oyster. A volunteer network composed of 20 oyster growers monitored the survival of 28 batches of oysters during an epizootic event in Southern Brittany, France. Oysters were spat from wild collection or hatchery production. The sampling sites were spread over a 150-km2 area with a tidal height ranging from 0.98 to 2.90 m. Concomitantly, we followed survival of oyster spats in relation...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Aquaculture; Citizen science; Marine epidemiology and health; OsHV-1; Risk analysis.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00491/60271/63981.pdf
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Permanent Advisory Network for Diseases in Aquaculture (PANDA) ArchiMer
Arzul, Isabelle; Ariel, E.; Hill, B..
The PANDA project aims to establish a permanent network of aquatic animal health specialists (researchers and diagnosticians) to provide a forum for the debate of issues concerning diseases in European aquaculture, and to communicate the results of these discussions to the European Commission with provision of advice on EU policy and legislation for aquatic animal health. PANDA consists of five scientific work packages: risk analysis, epidemiology, diagnosis, environmentally safe strategies for disease control, training in research and diagnostics. These work packages are lead by PANDA consortium members, supported by small task force of specialists, with wider input from experts registered in the PANDA network. Focused workshops and ongoing online...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Aquatic infectious diseses; Diagnosis; Risk analysis; PANDA; Animal health.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2005/acte-3320.pdf
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A preliminary evaluation of the European Non-native Species in Aquaculture Risk Assessment Scheme applied to species listed on Annex IV of the EU Alien Species Regulation ArchiMer
Copp, G. H.; Godard, M. J.; Russell, I. C.; Peeler, E. J.; Gherardi, F.; Tricarico, E.; Miossec, Laurence; Goulletquer, Philippe; Almeida, D.; Britton, J. R.; Vilizzi, L.; Mumford, J.; Williams, C.; Reading, A.; Rees, E. M. A.; Merino-aguirre, R..
Developed for carrying out risk assessments under the European Commission (EC) Council Regulation No 708/2007 concerning the use of alien and locally absent species in aquaculture (ASR), the European Non-native Species in Aquaculture Risk Assessment Scheme (ENSARS) is briefly summarised, and the ‘Organism’ module is applied to the 24 species listed in ASR's Annex IV. Four other ENSARS modules (Infectious Agent, Facility, Pathway, and Socio-economic) were used to assess two case study species (European catfish Silurus glanis L. and red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii Girard). No Annex IV species was categorised as low risk, 10 as moderately low risk, 12 as medium risk, two as moderately high risk and none as high risk. The results are discussed and...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Aquaculture; Biological invasions; Decision support; ENSARS; EU legislation; Risk analysis.
Ano: 2016 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00189/30032/29433.pdf
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Salinity influences disease-induced mortality of the oyster Crassostrea gigas and infectivity of the ostreid herpesvirus 1 (OsHV-1) ArchiMer
Fuhrmann, Marine; Petton, Bruno; Quillien, Virgile; Faury, Nicole; Morga, Benjamin; Pernet, Fabrice.
Mortality of young Pacific oysters Crassostrea gigas associated with the ostreid herpesvirus 1 (OsHV-1) is occurring worldwide. Here, we examined for the first time the effect of salinity on OsHV-1 transmission and disease-related mortality of C. gigas, as well as salinity-related effects on the pathogen itself. To obtain donors for OsHV-1 transmission, we transferred laboratory-raised oysters to an estuary during a disease outbreak and then back to the laboratory. Oysters that tested OsHV-1 positive were placed in seawater tanks (35‰, 21°C). Water from these tanks was used to infect naïve oysters in 2 experimental setups: (1) oysters acclimated or non-acclimated to a salinity of 10, 15, 25 and 35‰ and (2) oysters acclimated to a salinity of 25‰; the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Bivalve; Herpesviridae; Infection; Disease transmission; Risk analysis.
Ano: 2016 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00350/46100/45781.pdf
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Les maladies des mollusques bivalves: risques et prévention ArchiMer
Grizel, Henri.
La conchyliculture basée sur les activités de pêche et d'élevage dans le milieu naturel s'est considérablement développée au cours de ces dernières années, notamment grâce à la production de naissain dans les écloseries et les nurseries, L'accroissement des demandes des échanges de produits, facilité par les moyens modernes de transport, a provoqué une augmentation des risques de propagation de maladies. En s'appuyant sur des exemples, une analyse est faite sur les risques encourus liés aux pratiques conchylicoles et à l'état actuel des connaissances scientifiques. Des recommandations sont formulées sur la prévention, sur le besoin de réglementations et sur les difficultés rencontrées dans ce domaine, Enfin, quelques suggestions sont proposées pour mieux...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Analyse des risques; Commerce international; Conchyliculture; Maladies; Mollusques bivalves; Santé animale.; Animal health; Bivalve molluscs; Diseases; International trade; Risk analysis; Shellfish farming.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/1997/publication-6089.PDF
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Certifying the French population of Crassostrea gigas free from exotic diseases : a risk analysis approach ArchiMer
Thebault, Anne; Berthe, Franck; Audige, L..
Sample-size calculation in the context of the surveys aimed at substantiating freedom from infection have been commonly undertaken an terrestrial animals over recent years, but not on aquatic animals. A recent model developed by Audigé and Beckett in 1999 can be used to plan and assess animal health surveys. The aim of this study was to adapt that model for marine aquaculture, in particular to help in planning surveys aimed at substantiating freedom form two exotic diseases, mikrocytosis and perkinsosis, in the French population of Crassostrea gigas. As a first approach, farmed animals are so frequent that it would be very difficult to be representative of a single area or zone. To find the most appropriate sampling scheme, the model was run using @Risk...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Stochastic modelling; Sensitivity modelling; Risk analysis; Oysters; Molluscs; Crassostrea gigas; Certification; Aquatic animal surveys.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/2001/acte-2710.pdf
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