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| Allen, P. Geoffrey; Fildes, Robert. |
| An avalanche of articles has described the testing of a time series for the presence of unit roots. However, economic model builders have disagreed on the value of testing and how best to operationalise the tests. Sometimes the characterization of the series is an end in itself. More often, unit root testing is a preliminary step, followed by cointegration testing, intended to guide final model specification. A third possibility is to specify a general vector autoregression model, then work to a more specific model by sequential testing and the imposition of parameter restrictions to obtain the simplest data-congruent model 'fit for purpose'. Restrictions could be in the form of cointegrating vectors, though a simple variable deletion strategy could be... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14501 |
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| Damery, David T.; Allen, P. Geoffrey. |
| Estimated total value for recreational shellfishing on Cape Cod was $7.4 million in 2002, based on results of a survey of 233 shellfish permit holders, a figure that has roughly kept pace with inflation based on a similar study conducted in 1975. The total value is made up of two components, the actual permit fees collected ($387,000) and an estimate of consumer surplus, which was based on willingness to accept compensation to give up a fishing permit and hence is unbounded by the survey respondents' income. An estimate based on willingness-to-pay (WTP) gave a total value estimate of $1.0 million in 2002. Additionally, participation in recreational shellfishing has fallen precipitously from 19,068 resident permits sold in 1975 to the 10,639 permits sold... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14529 |
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| Allen, P. Geoffrey. |
| Forecasts made by econometricians are typically conditioned on actual values of explanatory variables, even when at the time of the forecast, such variables might not be available. As a first step, one might test the adequacy of econometric specification by comparing conditional post sample forecasts with those of a univariate ARIMA model. Second, when explanatory variables must themselves be forecast, those for which this can be done only badly, should be omitted from the final model. A better forecast will result. An example of screening out badly forecasted explanatory variables is presented. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 1984 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28916 |
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| Dismukes, Robert; Allen, P. Geoffrey; Morzuch, Bernard J.. |
| To investigate the poor participation rate of cranberry growers in the multiple-peril crop insurance program, a sample of 15 Massachusetts growers was interviewed. According to their risk preferences, a much greater proportion of growers should have insured, than actually did. A possible solution is to match the distribution used by the insurer closer to that believed by the grower. Adjusting each grower's historical yield series for trend brought the historical and subjective mean yields much closer. However, an aggregate test found the effect of adjustment to be insignificant, implying that the avenue for increased participation lies elsewhere. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1989 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28868 |
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| Felixson, Tryggvi; Allen, P. Geoffrey; Storey, David A.. |
| Most econometric studies of the groundfish sector have suggested that either imports are not sensitive to U.S. prices, or that domestic prices are not much affected by imports, or both. Using a six equation model of the domestic fresh groundfish market we obtained contrasting results. For example, a 5.82 percent tariff of the type proposed by the U.S. International Trade Commission in 1986 would, if it applied to both whole fish and fillets, lower imports of fresh fish 3.7 percent and raise domestic ex-vessel prices 2.6 percent in the long run. The main reasons for the different results appear to be our inclusion of exchange rate effects and a more accurate measure of total fresh imports. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1987 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28889 |
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| Murphy, James J.; Allen, P. Geoffrey; Stevens, Thomas H.; Weatherhead, Darryl. |
| Individuals are widely believed to overstate their economic valuation of a good by a factor of two or three. This paper reports the results of a meta-analysis of hypothetical bias in 28 stated preference valuation studies that report monetary willingness-to-pay and that used the same mechanism for eliciting both hypothetical and actual values. The papers generated 83 observations with a median value of the ratio of hypothetical to actual value of 1.35, and the distribution has severe positive skewness. Since a comprehensive theory of hypothetical bias has not been developed, we use a set of explanatory variables based on issues that have been investigated in previous research. We find that a choice-based elicitation mechanism is important in reducing... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14518 |
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| Arthurton, Daniel A.; Moffitt, L. Joe; Allen, P. Geoffrey; Cox, Douglas A.. |
| Recent studies of capital budgeting procedures used by business executives suggest increasing use of present value methods. This study compares Massachusetts greenhouse business managers use of capital budgeting procedures to those of Fortune 1000 firms. Results indicate that different capital budgeting procedures are used and that the payback criterion remains the most popular for the farm firms studied. Some implications for Extension finance educators are drawn. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31597 |
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| Lass, Daniel A.; Adanu, Mawunyo; Allen, P. Geoffrey. |
| Northeast Dairy Compact impacts were estimated for Boston and Hartford retail prices using an econometric model. Asymmetric speeds of adjustment to farm price increases and decreases were found; however, tests indicated that retail prices do return to the same level following equal farm price increases and decreases. Model forecasts suggested no structural changes occurred during the out-of-sample period, July 1996 through June 1998. Simulations with and without the Compact predicted lower retail fluid milk price impacts than actual July 1997 changes. These predicted impacts separate the effects of farm price changes on retail prices from possibly confounding effects. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31614 |
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