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Registros recuperados: 4
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Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&D Investment AgEcon
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Bosetti, Valentina; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de.
How should a decision-maker allocate R&D funds when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on a technology's potential effectiveness? To address this question, we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over the aggregation of expert opinion and a decision-maker's attitude towards it. In line with the paper's focus on R&D investment, decision variables in our model may affect experts' subjective probability distributions of the future potential of a technology. Using results from convex optimization, we are able to establish a number of analytical results including a closed-form expression of our model's value function, as well as a thorough investigation of its differentiability properties. We apply...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Expert Opinions; R&D; Convex/Conic Optimization; Aggregation; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C61; D81; Q42.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121719
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Efficiency under a Combination of Ordinal and Cardinal Information on Preferences AgEcon
Athanassoglou, Stergios.
Replaced with a revised version of paper 10/05/11.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Random Assignment; Efficiency; Duality; Linear Programming; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; D01; D60.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101288
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Optimal Mechanisms for Heterogeneous Multi-cell Aquifers AgEcon
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Sheriff, Glenn; Siegfried, Tobias; Tim Huh, Woonghee.
Standard economic models of groundwater management impose restrictive assumptions regarding perfect transmissivity (i.e., the aquifer behaves as a bathtub), no external effects of groundwater stocks, observability of individual extraction rates, and/or homogenous agents. In this article, we derive regulatory mechanisms for inducing the socially optimal extraction path in Markov perfect equilibrium for aquifers in which these assumptions do not hold. In spite of the complexity of the underlying system, we identify an interesting case in which a simple linear mechanism achieves the social optimum. To illustrate potential problems that can arise by erroneously imposing simplifying assumptions, we conduct a simulation based on data from the Indian state of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Common Property Resource; Differential Games; Groundwater Extraction; Imperfect Monitoring; Markov Perfect Equilibrium; Environmental Economics and Policy; C6; D0.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102502
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Pollution Control with Uncertain Stock Dynamics: When, and How, to be Precautious AgEcon
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Xepapadeas, Anastasios.
Replaced with revised version of paper 10/05/11.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk; Ambiguity; Robust Control; Precautionary Principle; Pollution Control; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; D80; D81.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101296
Registros recuperados: 4
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