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| Registros recuperados: 13 | |
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| Babula, Ronald A.; Newman, Douglas; Rogowsky, Robert A.. |
| The methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) model are applied to monthly U.S. markets for sugar and for sugar-using markets for confectionary, soft drink, and bakery products. Primarily a methods paper, we apply Johansen and Juselius' advanced procedures to these markets for perhaps the first time, with focus on achievement of a statistically adequate model through analysis of a battery of advanced statistical diagnostic tests and on exploitation of the system's cointegration properties through rank restrictions, statistically supported hypotheses test restrictions, and inference. The VEC model results illuminate the estimates of crucial policy-relevant market parameters that drive these markets, as well as the dynamic nature of the... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9084 |
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| Babula, Ronald A.. |
| This paper provides the model, analysis, and results of the investigative research by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) staff on the U.S. lamb market impacts from the countervailing duty (CVD) order imposed on certain U.S. imports of New Zealand lamb meat during 1985-90. Presented here are the monthly three-stage least squares model of the U.S. lamb meat industry at the wholesale or meat-packing level, along with the econometric results and analyses obtained from the USITC investigation. Analysis of model results quantifies average estimated CVD-attributed effects on U.S. lamb price, demand and supply of domestically produced lamb, and U.S. lamb import levels. A number of economic parameter estimates and inference results concerning U.S.... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31365 |
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| Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.. |
| A vector autoregression (VAR) model of corn, farm egg, and retail egg prices is estimated and shocked with a corn price increase. Impulse responses in egg prices, t-statistics for the impulse responses, and decompositions of forecast error variance are presented. Analyses of results provide insights on the corn/egg price transmission mechanism and on how corn price shocks pulsate through the egg-related economy. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1990 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30015 |
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| Reeder, John; Torene, Jillian A.; Jabara, Cathy L.; Babula, Ronald A.. |
| Since the mid-1990s, the two regional trade agreements in South America, the southern Mercosur Pact (among Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay), and the northern Andean Pact (among Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Peru) noticeably affected certain trade patterns between the two pacts' members and with the United States for various reasons discussed herein. The effect of trade diversion owing to the Andean Pact with its common external tariff and price band system against non-Andean products was examined for soybean and soybean meal imports into Venezuela historically an important market for U.S. products. As well, the recent combining of Mercosur and Andean nations into a single regional trade agreement is likely to further adversely affect... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Venezuela; Soybeans; Soybean meal; Trade diversion; Mercosur; Andean Pact; U.S. exports; Armington-type import model; Price bands; Regional trade agreements; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15882 |
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| Gehrke, Brad C.; Babula, Ronald A.; Coleman, Jonathan R.. |
| During 1996-2000, U.S. imports of milk protein concentrate (MPC) increased rapidly. At the same time, Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) stocks of non-fat dry milk (NFDM) went from nothing to more than 500 million pounds. Consequently, U.S. milk producers attributed low milk prices and dairy farmer income during this period to the increased imports of MPC. U.S. milk producers were especially concerned with MPC imports for two reasons. First, MPC between 40 and 90 percent protein had been classified in subheading 0404.90.10 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTS). Thus, MPC was not subject to the tariff-rate quotas applied to many other dairy products. Second, MPC produced in the European Union (EU) and exported to the United States was... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15875 |
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| Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.; Reeder, John; Somwaru, Agapi. |
| Advanced methods that combine directed acyclic graphs with Bernanke structural vector autoregression models are applied to a monthly system of three U.S. soy-based markets: for soybeans upstream and for the two soybean co-products soy meal and soy oil further downstream. Analyses of the impulse-response function and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market-elasticity parameters that drive these markets and updated policy-relevant information on how these monthly markets run and dynamically interact. Results characterize impacts on the three U.S. soy-based markets of increases in U.S. prices of soy meal and soybeans. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/27559 |
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| Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.; Payne, Warren S.. |
| Using advanced methods of directed acyclic graphs with Bernanke structural vector autoregression models, this article extends recent econometric research on quarterly U.S. markets for wheat and wheat-based value-added products downstream. Analyses of impulse response simulations and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market elasticity parameters that drive these markets, and updated policy-relevant information on how these quarterly markets run and dynamically interact. Results suggest that movements in wheat and downstream wheat-based markets strongly influence each other, although most of these effects occur at the longer-run horizons beyond a single crop cycle. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Bernanke structural VARs; Directed acyclic graphs; Quarterly wheat-related markets; C22; Q11. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42896 |
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| Babula, Ronald A.; Newman, Douglas. |
| The methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression/error correction (VAR/VEC) model are applied to monthly U.S. markets for sugar and for sugar-using markets for confectionary, soft drink, and bakery products. Primarily a methods paper, Johansen and Juselius' methods are applied, with a special focus on addressing well-known issues that preclude statistically normal behavior, and that confront the modelled sugar-based data. In so doing, we illustrate the effectiveness and the benefits of modelling this sugar-related set of markets as a cointegrated system. Perhaps for the first time, cointegrated VEC model results are used to estimate crucial policy-relevant market parameters that drive the markets, as well as to illuminate the dynamic nature of the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Sugar-based U.S. markets; Vector autoregression; Vector error correction models; Industrial Organization; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15878 |
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| Babula, Ronald A.; Rich, Karl M.. |
| A quarterly, partial-equilibrium vector-autoregression model of the U.S. durum wheat and pasta markets was estimated and simulated under three trade-barrier changes that are of potential relevance for the current round of WTO agricultural negotiations: a rise in the U.S. market-clearing durum wheat quantity from increased imports; a policy- or tariff- reduction-induced decline in U.S. durum wheat price; and a tariff-induced rise in U.S. pasta product prices. In response to each shock, an array of quarterly dynamic response characteristics are examined: response reaction times, direction and pattern of quarterly responses, response durations, response multipliers, and strength of durum/pasta market interrelationships. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/27818 |
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| Registros recuperados: 13 | |
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