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| Queiros, Ana M.; Huebert, Klaus B.; Keyl, Friedemann; Fernandes, Jose A.; Stolte, Willem; Maar, Marie; Kay, Susan; Jones, Miranda C.; Hamon, Katell; Hendriksen, Gerrit; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul; Teal, Lorna R.; Somerfield, Paul J.; Austen, Melanie C.; Barange, Manuel; Sell, Anne F.; Allen, Icarus; Peck, Myron A.. |
| The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Conservation; COP21; Ecosystem model; Habitat; Marine spatial planning; Ocean; Ocean acidification; Species distribution; Warming. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00360/47089/48566.pdf |
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| Lotze, Heike K.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Cheung, William W. L.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Barange, Manuel; Barrier, Nicolas; Bianchi, Daniele; Blanchard, Julia L; Bopp, Laurent; Buchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine M.; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda C.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Fernandes, Jose A.; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago A. M.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Stock, Charles A.; Verley, Philippe; Volkholz, Jan; Walker, Nicola D.; Worm, Boris. |
| While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change impacts; Marine food webs; Global ecosystem modeling; Model intercomparison; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77125/78507.pdf |
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| Payne, Mark R.; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.; Mackenzie, Brian R.; Batchelder, Harold P.; Cormon, Xochitl; Eddy, Tyler D.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Jones, Miranda C.; Link, Jason S.; Neubauer, Philipp; Ortiz, Ivonne; Queirós, Ana M.; Paula, José Ricardo. |
| Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Initialization uncertainty; Parametric uncertainty; Projections; Scenario uncertainty; Structural uncertainty; Uncertainty.. |
| Ano: 2016 |
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00301/41220/40392.pdf |
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| Rose, Kenneth A.; Allen, J. Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Barange, Manuel; Blackford, Jerry; Carlotti, Francois; Cropp, Roger; Daewel, Ute; Edwards, Karen; Flynn, Kevin; Hill, Simeon L.; Hillerislambers, Reinier; Huse, Geir; Mackinson, Steven; Megrey, Bernard; Moll, Andreas; Rivkin, Richard; Salihoglu, Baris; Schrum, Corinna; Shannon, Lynne; Shin, Yunne-jai; Smith, S. Lan; Smith, Chris; Solidoro, Cosimo; St John, Michael; Zhou, Meng. |
| There is growing interest in models of marine ecosystems that deal with the effects of climate change through the higher trophic levels. Such end-to-end models combine physicochemical oceanographic descriptors and organisms ranging from microbes to higher-trophic-level (HTL) organisms, including humans, in a single modeling framework. The demand for such approaches arises from the need for quantitative tools for ecosystem-based management, particularly models that can deal with bottom-up and top-down controls that operate simultaneously and vary in time and space and that are capable of handling the multiple impacts expected under climate change. End-to-end models are now feasible because of improvements in the component submodels and the availability of... |
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| Ano: 2010 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00483/59488/62350.pdf |
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| Andrello, Marco; Guilhaumon, Francois; Albouy, Camille; Parravicini, Valeriano; Scholtens, Joeri; Verley, Philippe; Barange, Manuel; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Manel, Stephanie; Mouillot, David. |
| Marine reserves are viewed as flagship tools to protect exploited species and to contribute to the effective management of coastal fisheries. Yet, the extent to which marine reserves are globally interconnected and able to effectively seed areas, where fisheries are most critical for food and livelihood security is largely unknown. Using a hydrodynamic model of larval dispersal, we predict that most marine reserves are not interconnected by currents and that their potential benefits to fishing areas are presently limited, since countries with high dependency on coastal fisheries receive very little larval supply from marine reserves. This global mismatch could be reversed, however, by placing new marine reserves in areas sufficiently remote to minimize... |
| Tipo: Text |
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| Ano: 2017 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00392/50319/50997.pdf |
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| Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-buchholz, Andrea; Buechner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.. |
| Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0... |
| Tipo: Text |
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| Ano: 2018 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00438/54988/75118.pdf |
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| Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel; Fernandes, Jose A.; Mullon, Christian; Cheung, William; Trenkel, Verena; Lam, Vicky. |
| It is accepted that world’s fisheries are not generally exploited at their biological or their economic optimum. Most fisheries assessments focus on the biological capacity of fish stocks to respond to harvesting and few have attempted to estimate the economic efficiency at which ecosystems are exploited. The latter is important as fisheries contribute considerably to the economic development of many coastal communities. Here we estimate the overall potential economic rent for the fishing industry in the North Atlantic to be B€ 12.85, compared to current estimated profits of B€ 0.63. The difference between the potential and the net profits obtained from North Atlantic fisheries is therefore B€ 12.22. In order to increase the profits of North Atlantic... |
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| Ano: 2014 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00188/29973/28426.pdf |
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