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Registros recuperados: 44
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Generalization of the Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem: Extension based on the Theil’s Aggregation Theory AgEcon
Kwon, Dae-Heum; Bessler, David A..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49335
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Effects of Soybean Checkoff Research Expenditures on U.S. Soybean Yields and Net Revenue: A Time Series Analysis AgEcon
Bessler, David A..
Statistical methods are used to study relationships between research expenditures (adjusted for inflation) made from producer checkoff programs and soybean yields and net revenues in the United States for the years 1978 – 2007. Results presented are for yield and net revenue data and research expenditures for the entire United States. We find that research expenditures over the years 1994 to 2007 are responsible for a 0.95 bushel per acre per year increase in soybean yields. We calculate net producer revenues to be about $17 per acre higher than would have been the case without the soybean research checkoff expenditures.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Soybean; Soybean Checkoff; Soybean Yields; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90494
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ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION RATES AND GRAIN PRICES AgEcon
Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Bessler, David A.; Fuller, Stephen W..
Transportation rates are vital components in the structure of U.S. grain exports. In this paper we study the dynamic properties of corn and soybean prices, and barge, rail and ocean shipping rates using time series analysis on monthly 1992-2001 data. Using Error Correction Model and Directed Acyclic Graphs, we capture the interconnectivity between the transportation rates and grain prices at selected domestic and export markets. We find Illinois processor prices are important sources of price discovery for both corn and soybeans. Further, barge rates explain about 2-4% of the variation in grain prices while rail rates explain about 10-12% of the variation in corn and soybean prices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Public Economics.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20339
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Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Time Series Econometrics: Evaluating the U.S. Market Impacts of High Soy Meal Prices AgEcon
Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.; Reeder, John; Somwaru, Agapi.
This paper demonstrates the application of a recently developed methodology, the combination of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with Bernanke structural vector autoregression (VAR) models, to model a system of U.S. commodity-related and value-added markets. As an example, the paper applies this methodology to a monthly system of three U.S. soy-based markets: the soybean market upstream and the two downstream markets for soy meal soy oil. Analyses of results from simulating the model's impulse response function and of forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market elasticity parameters that drive these markets, and updated policy-relevant information on how these monthly markets run and dynamically interact. Results suggest how a...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Directed acyclic graphs; Bernanke structural VAR models; Monthly soy-based markets; Industrial Organization; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15885
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EFFECT OF CONTRACT DISCLOSURE ON PRICE: RAILROAD GRAIN CONTRACTING IN THE PLAINS AgEcon
Fuller, Stephen W.; Ruppel, Fred J.; Bessler, David A..
The Staggers Rail Act of 1980 granted railroads freedom to establish rates and enter into confidential contracts with grain shippers. Recent legislation (1986) required that certain contract terms be disclosed. This study shows rail rates in the Plains region commenced an upward trend after implementation of the disclosure policy. Results suggest contract disclosure and increased reliance on posted tariffs facilitated rate coordination within the oligopolistic railroad industry.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Public Economics.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32066
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SAMUELSON'S FULL DUALITY AND THE USE OF DIRECTED ACYCLICAL GRAPHS: THE BIRTH OF CAUSALLY IDENTIFIED DEMAND SYSTEMS AgEcon
Stockton, Matthew C.; Capps, Oral, Jr.; Bessler, David A..
To date, mixed demand systems have been all but ignored in empirical work. A possible reason for the scarcity of such applications is that one needs to know a priori which prices and quantities are endogenous in the mixed demand system. By using a directed acyclical graph (DAG), causal relationships among price and quantity variables are identified giving rise to a causally identified demand system (CIDS). A statistical comparison is made of the traditional Rotterdam model with a Rotterdam mixed demand system identified through the use of a DAG. In this analysis, the respective Rotterdam demand systems consist of five products: steak, ground beef, roast beef, pork, and chicken.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19969
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Potential Impacts of Food Borne Ill Incidence on Market Movements and Prices of Fresh Produce in the US AgEcon
Palma, Marco A.; Ribera, Luis A.; Bessler, David A.; Paggi, Mechel S.; Knutson, Ronald D..
For many decades, fresh fruits and vegetables enjoyed a reputation as the healthiest products full of essential vitamins, minerals, and other beneficial substances for a balanced diet. However, numerous recent food outbreaks associated with fresh produce have raised concerns on the mind of the consumer. Following an outbreak, consumers reduce their immediate consumption of the affected products. Even tough fresh fruits and vegetables have unique characteristics and flavors, consumers tend to substitute affected outbreak products with other fruits and vegetables. The potential impact of food borne illness on consumption has also a longer term impact, reducing consumption of the products over a period of several months after the outbreak. This paper used...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food safety; Fresh produce; Historical decomposition; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46745
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Livestock Market Integration and Price Discovery: Case of Mali AgEcon
Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Bessler, David A.; Angerer, Jay P..
Replaced with revised version of paper 02/22/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Structural breaks; Market integration; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98856
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Conflict, Aid and Poverty: Cause, Effect and Prediction AgEcon
Kibriya, Shahriar R.; Bessler, David A.; Price, Edwin; Sen Gupta, Rajorshi.
Recent studies and reports suggest that foreign aid/intervention has been somewhat futile in eradicating conflict. In this study, we develop a simultaneous donor/recipient model of foreign aid and terrorism. Thereafter, we extend our theoretical propositions through a machine learning algorithm of inductive causation. We find that terrorism increases foreign aid, however foreign assistance is futile in mitigating terrorism. Additionally, socio-economic factors influence foreign aid given by the donors. But foreign assistance is unsuccessful in enhancing the livelihoods of the underprivileged. We conclude that foreign aid policies need to be more efficient.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61898
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Dynamic Relationships Among Selected U.S. Commodity-Based, Value Added Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model AgEcon
Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.; Payne, Warren S..
This paper demonstrates the application of a recently developed methodology, the combination of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with Bernanke structural vector autoregression (VAR) models, to model a system of U.S. commodity-related and value-added markets. As an example, the paper applies this methodology to a quarterly system of U.S. markets: the wheat market and a set of downstream milling and bakery markets that use wheat as an input. Analyses of the model's impulse response simulations and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market elasticity parameters that drive these markets, and updated policy-relevant information on how these quarterly markets run and dynamically interact. Results suggest that movements in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Bernanke structural VARs; Directed acyclic graphs; Quarterly wheat-related markets; Industrial Organization; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15879
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Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy AgEcon
Awokuse, Titus O.; Bessler, David A..
The paper considers the use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and their construction from observational data with PC-algorithm TETRAD II, in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression. Results from Sims’ 1986 model of the US economy are replicated and compared using these data-driven techniques. The directed graph results show Sims’ six-variable VAR is not rich enough to provide an unambiguous ordering at usual levels of statistical significance. A significance level in the neighborhood of 30 % is required to find a clear structural ordering. Although the DAG results are in agreement with Sims’ theory-based model for unemployment, differences are noted for the other five variables: income, money supply, price...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Vector autoregression; Directed graphs; Policy analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C1; E1.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44001
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On aggregation bias in structural demand models AgEcon
Lai, Pei-Chun; Bessler, David A..
Consumer demand analysis attracts considerable attention. It remains an open question, however, whether estimating demand with aggregate data is reliable when disaggregate store-level data is given. Demand models may produce biased results when applied to data aggregated across stores with different pricing strategies. In this study, the graphical model is used to investigate the following question: Do we find the same structure when we fit causal models on sub-groupings of stores, as we find when we fit models on aggregate data from all stores?
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Causal analysis; Aggregation bias; Demand and Price Analysis; C01.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61523
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EGG PRICES REVISITED AgEcon
Schrader, Lee F.; Bessler, David A.; Preston, Warren P..
Recent egg price quotes are evaluated in a vector autoregression. The results indicate that empirical relationships observed over the period 1975-1976 differ from those observed over the period 1979-1982.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 1985 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29979
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The Impacts of Animal Disease Crises on the Korean Meat Market AgEcon
Park, Moon-Soo; Jin, Yanhong H.; Bessler, David A..
Employing the error correction method and historical decomposition with direct acyclic graphs, we quantify the impacts of domestic and oversea animal disease crises on the Korean meat markets. We find that (a) the market partially recovered 16 months after the foot-and-mouth outbreak in 2000, and 13 months after the avian influenza and the U.S. BSE incidents in 2003; (b) animal disease outbreaks have differentiate impacts by disease type and supply chain level. Retailers likely to have windfall profits as the retail price margin increased relative to the farm and wholesale levels; and (c) disease outbreaks affect dynamic price interdependence.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Animal disease outbreak; Error correction model; Direct acyclic graphs; Korean meat market; Historical Decomposition; Price margins; Livestock Production/Industries; C32; Q11; L11.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6365
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Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices AgEcon
Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.; Reeder, John; Somwaru, Agapi.
Advanced methods that combine directed acyclic graphs with Bernanke structural vector autoregression models are applied to a monthly system of three U.S. soy-based markets: for soybeans upstream and for the two soybean co-products soy meal and soy oil further downstream. Analyses of the impulse-response function and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market-elasticity parameters that drive these markets and updated policy-relevant information on how these monthly markets run and dynamically interact. Results characterize impacts on the three U.S. soy-based markets of increases in U.S. prices of soy meal and soybeans.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/27559
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DYNAMIC PRICE ADJUSTMENTS BETWEEN COMMERCIAL AND PUREBRED CATTLE MARKETS AgEcon
Van Tassell, Larry W.; Bessler, David A..
Vector autoregression was utilized to investigate dynamic relationships existing between prices of purebred bulls and prices of slaughter steers, utility cows, feeder calves, and cow-calf pairs. Results suggest purebred bull prices respond most quickly to an increase in utility cow prices (proxy for slaughter bull prices). Feeder calf prices exhibited the most pronounced positive effect on the price of herd sires, with a lagged response which took over two years to build.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 1988 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29261
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LOCK CONGESTION AND ITS IMPACT ON GRAIN BARGE RATES ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AgEcon
Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Fuller, Stephen W.; Bessler, David A..
An anticipated increase in lock delays on the upper Mississippi River has generated concern about its future navigational efficiency. The objective of this paper is to identify selected factors affecting lock delay on the River's busiest locks and to examine the impact of lock delay on grain barge rates. Results show that lock unavailability, traffic level, and delay at nearby locks affect lock delay. Further, barge rates are affected by lock delay, however, the impact is modest.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Public Economics.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36001
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Cointegration and Causality Analysis of World Vegetable Oil and Crude Oil Prices AgEcon
Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Bessler, David A.; Fuller, Stephen W..
Because of the recent soaring petroleum price and growing environmental concerns, biodiesel has become an important alternative fuel. Biodiesel is the mono alky esters made from a vegetable oil, such as soybean or rapeseed oil, or sometimes from animal fats. The escalation in world petroleum price has stimulated the demand for biodiesel, which consequently expanded the use of vegetable oils. This paper investigates the long-run interdependence between major edible oil prices and examines the dynamic relationship between vegetable and crude oil prices. The data consists of 378 weekly observations extending from the first week of January in 1999 to the fourth week of March in 2006. We apply time-series analytical mechanisms and directed acyclic graphs...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21439
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FABRICATED CUT BEEF PRICES AS LEADING INDICATORS OF FED CATTLE PRICE AgEcon
Owen, C. Jane; Sporleder, Thomas L.; Bessler, David A..
Temporal relationships are investigated among fabricated cut prices, carcass value, and fed cattle prices. Also, linkages between fed cattle and wholesale beef prices are examined using vector autoregressive (VAR) techniques. Results, using daily prices over the 1980-85 period, suggested that fabricated cut prices and cattle prices are related to the imputed carcass value, carcass quote, and fed cattle prices. In addition, three fabricated cuts dominate as leading indicators of fed cattle prices of most fabricated cut prices. They are strip loin and bottom and top round prices. VAR models outperform the univariate and random-walk models of forecasting ability.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1991 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32634
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Dynamic Economic Relationships Among U.S. Soy Product Markets: Using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach with Directed Acyclic Graphs AgEcon
Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.; Rogowsky, Robert A..
This paper applies a combined methodology of a recently developed directed acyclic graph (DAG) analysis with Johansen and Juselius' methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) model to a monthly U.S. system of markets for soybeans, soy meal, and soy oil. Primarily a methods paper, Johansen and Juselius' procedures are applied, with a special focus on statistically addressing information inherent in well-known sources of non-normal data behavior to illustrate the effectiveness of modeling the system as a cointegrated multi-market system. Perhaps for the first time, methods of the cointegrated VAR model are combined with DAG analysis to account for contemporaneously correlated residuals, and are applied to this U.S. soy-based system. Analysis of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Directed acyclic graphs; Cointegration; Vector error correction and vector autoregression models; Monthly U.S. soy-based markets.; Industrial Organization; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15880
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