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| Registros recuperados: 18 | |
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| Witzke, Heinz Peter; Britz, Wolfgang. |
| In the context of a long run agricultural outlook on behalf of the European Environmental Agency a new methodology has been developed to systematically integrate external forecasts into a quite detailed agricultural sector model. External forecasts usually provide estimates for the exogenous variables in modelling work and frequently they are also used for comparisons and potential reassessment of empirical specifications. The innovative characteristic of this study is that expert forecasts have been used to specify parameter changes expressing structural change affecting behavioural functions. The outlook was therefore set up as a simultaneous estimation and forecasting effort which permitted to integrate various, usually contradictory expert forecasts... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural outlook; Forecasting; Modelling; Expert information; Agricultural and Food Policy; C15; C53; Q11; Q19; Q21. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24666 |
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| Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeju; Jooste, Andre; Britz, Wolfgang; van Schalkwyk, Herman D.. |
| The liberalization of the agricultural sector and phasing out of past protection mechanisms in South Africa saw the introduction of a process of tariff reform. Furthermore, a system of tariff rate quotas was introduced in compliance with WTO regulations. This study uses a partial equilibrium comparative static model to measure the welfare effects of further liberalization in the livestock industry of South Africa, particularly in meat products using four policy scenarios. The traditional method of welfare analyses using the CS and PS was applied, while the EV was used to integrate a well-behaved objective function. Although the CS and PS could have over-estimated welfare due to the fact that the demand system used in this study is non-linear, they still... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10134 |
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| Britz, Wolfgang. |
| Increasing demand for policy impact assessment regarding social, economic and environmental aspects asks for combined application of different models and tools. The paper discusses concepts and challenges in linking models, taking CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) model as an example. CAPRI combines different economic models, spatial downscaling and interfaces to bio-physical components. 250 non-linear regional programming models with econometrically estimated costs functions cover the EU-27, Norway and Western Balkans. They are consistently linked to a spatial globally closed trade model, covering 60 countries / country blocks and 50 primary and secondary agricultural products. The link is based on sequential calibration: the market... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Model linkage; Linking economic and environmental models; Policy impact assessment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97707 |
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| Renwick, Alan W.; Jansson, Torbjorn; Verburg, Peter H.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Britz, Wolfgang; Gocht, Alexander; McCracken, Davy. |
| This paper examines the potential impact of agricultural and trade policy reform on land-use across the EU focussing particularly on the issue of land abandonment. Using a novel combined application of the well established CAPRI and Dyna-CLUE models it estimates the extent of change across Europe under removal of Pillar 1 support payments and trade liberalisation. Overall, it is estimated that around 8 per cent less land will be farmed under these reforms than under the baseline situation. However, some regions, areas and farm types face more significant reductions. The reforms are particularly felt on livestock grazing farms situated in the more marginal areas of Europe, which also coincide with areas of high nature value. Therefore, farmland biodiversity... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Policy; Land Use Change; Land Abandonment; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108772 |
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| Britz, Wolfgang. |
| Major environmental indicators require data at a spatial resolution below administrative units as found in economic models. The CAPRI-Dynaspat project added spatial results for EU27 to the CAPRI model allowing for linkage to bio-physical models and calculation of novel indicators. The layer consists of clusters of 1x1 km cells exhausting the agricultural area, uniform in soil parameters, slope class, land cover and administrative unit. Crop and irrigation shares, stocking densities and yields are estimated per cluster along with intermediate input demand including crop specific fertilizer application rates. Those estimates drive statistically estimated meta-models from the bio-physical crop growth model DNDC to derive the nitrogen and water cycle.... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Spatial dis-aggregation; Agri-environmental indicators; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6677 |
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| Registros recuperados: 18 | |
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