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| Registros recuperados: 103 | |
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| Yoon, Byung-Sam; Brorsen, B. Wade. |
| In an inverted market, current prices are higher than future prices and thus the price of storage is negative. Market inversions as measured with futures spreads rarely occur during early months of the crop year. However, market inversions frequently occur across crop years and near the end of the crop year. In the last half of the crop year, market inversions clearly reflect a signal to sell stocks. Too few inversions occur early in the crop year to reach a definitive conclusion for that period. Behavioral finance offers possible explanations of why producers would hold stocks in an inverted market. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Convenience yield; Cost of carry; Market inversion; Marketing; Q13. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15077 |
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| Hatchett, Robert B.; Brorsen, B. Wade; Anderson, Kim B.. |
| The question addressed in this study is which length of historical moving average provides the best forecast of futures basis. Differences in observed forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are usually less than a cent per bushel, and most are not statistically significant. Further, the search for an optimal length of moving average may be futile since the optimal length depends on how much structural change has occurred. Our recommendation is to use moving averages when there has been no structural change and to use last year’s basis or an alternative approach if the forecaster perceives that a structural change has occurred. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Basis forecast; Grain; Law of One Price; Moving averages; Structural change; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61057 |
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| Kim, Taeyoon; Brorsen, B. Wade; Kenkel, Philip L.. |
| The objective of this article is to address heteroscedasticity in the stochastic frontier cost function using aggregated data and verify it using a Monte Carlo study. We find that when the translog form of a stochastic frontier cost function with aggregated data is estimated, all explanatory variables can inversely affect the variation of error terms. Our Monte Carlo study shows that heteroscedasticity is only significant in the random effect and the unexplained error term not in the inefficiency error term. Also, it does not cause biases, which is quite opposite of previous research. These are because our model is approximately defined by first order Taylor series around zero inefficiency area. But, disregarding heteroscedasticity causes the average... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6408 |
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| Hamm, Lonnie; Brorsen, B. Wade. |
| Training a neural network is a difficult optimization problem because of numerous local minimums. Many global search algorithms have been used to train neural networks. However, local search algorithms are more efficient with computational resources, and therefore numerous random restarts with a local algorithm may be more effective than a global algorithm. This study uses Monte-Carlo simulations to determine the relative efficiency of a local search algorithm to 9 stochastic global algorithms. The computational requirements of the global algorithms are several times higher than the local algorithm and there is little gain in using the global algorithms to train neural networks. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36631 |
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| Kim, Hyun Seok; Brorsen, B. Wade. |
| Previous studies suggest that producers tend to store crops longer than makes economic sense. Since decisions to sell are irreversible, there can be a real option value from waiting to sell grain. This real option value may explain why producers appear to store too long. A seasonal mean reversion model is estimated that allows prices to be a random walk within a season, but mean reverting across crop years. Unless prices are extremely low, it is optimal for producers to sell before the mean reversion begins. Thus, the real option value of waiting cannot explain why producers seem to store at a loss in the latter part of crop years. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Real option value; Seasonal mean reversion; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37602 |
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| Bailey, DeeVon; Brorsen, B. Wade. |
| The dynamic relationship between four regional cash prices for fed (slaughter) cattle is investigated using time series analysis and causality tests. The results indicate that price adjustments to new information take about one week. Texas Panhandle price also was determined to dominate the price discovery process. Regional prices also were found to be interdependent. This suggests that increasing regional meat packer concentration may not grant meat packers increased regional market power in their pricing practices. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 1985 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32512 |
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| Dameus, Alix; Brorsen, B. Wade; Sukhdial, Kullapapruk Piewthongngam; Richter, Francisca G.-C.. |
| A Cox nonnested test with parametric bootstrap is developed to select between the linearized version of the First Difference Almost Ideal Demand System (FDAIDS) and the Rotterdam model. The Cox test with parametric bootstrap is expected to be more powerful than the various orthodox tests used in past research. The new approach is then used for U. S. meat demand (beef, pork, and chicken) and compared to results obtained with an orthodox test. The orthodox test gives inconsistent results. In contrast, under the same varied conditions, the Cox test with parametric bootstrap consistently indicates that the Rotterdam model is preferred to the FDAIDS. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20453 |
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| Zakrzewicz, Christopher J.; Brorsen, B. Wade; Briggeman, Brian C.. |
| The value of land dominates the financial structure of most American agricultural production firms, and land values are an important factor in long-term agricultural planning and risk management. As the primary source of collateral for farm loans, farmland values have significant implications for both producers as well as bankers financing agricultural loans. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions is an expert opinion survey in which agricultural bankers provide land value forecasts. As the survey has drawn increased attention, the survey has drawn criticism regarding its use qualitative data to forecast land values. Our research examines the value of the survey data with respect to its ability to forecast... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Farmland; Forecasting; Land values; Federal Reserve Bank; Agribusiness; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61758 |
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| Bailey, DeeVon; Brorsen, B. Wade; Richardson, James W.. |
| A dynamic model of daily cash and futures prices for cotton was developed using time series analysis. The time series model was included in a recursive Monte Carlo simulation model. Validation of the model was performed with a stochastic, dynamic simulation of the estimated model over the observation period 1975-1982 and with a static, deterministic out-of-sample forecast from December 9, 1981 through March 9, 1982. The model was then used to incorporate futures trading strategies into a policy simulation model. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1984 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29727 |
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| Brorsen, B. Wade; Anderson, Kim B.. |
| Extension marketing economists were surveyed to determine whether they are using available research results and whether research is being conducted on topics relevant to extension marketing economists. In some cases, the beliefs of extension marketing economists differ from recent research results. The research topics recommended by extension economists and the topics of papers presented at the 1994-97 annual NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management are well matched. While relevant research is being done, many extension economists desire marketing strategies that both reduce risk and increase income. Research, however, has not produced such strategies. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Efficient markets; Extension; Farmer marketing; Outlook; Research; Risk; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14726 |
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| Biermacher, Jon T.; Epplin, Francis M.; Brorsen, B. Wade; Solie, John B.; Raun, Bill. |
| Sensor-based precision fertilizer technologies are being developed and researched by production scientists. One such technology uses normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) reflectance measurements of growing winter wheat plants and a nitrogen fertilizer optimization algorithm (NFOA) to determine nitrogen requirement necessary for plants to reach their yield plateau. A number of precision fertilizer application systems that use this technology are considered in this paper. A linear response stochastic plateau wheat yield function conditional on NDVI reflectance measurements is estimated and used within an expected profit-maximization framework to estimate upper bounds on the returns from the precision nitrogen application systems. The on-the-go... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21046 |
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| Yoon, Byung-Sam; Brorsen, B. Wade. |
| As opposed to a normal market, an inverted market has a negative price of storage or spread. Market inversions in nearby spreads rarely occur during early months of the crop year since stocks are usually abundant after harvest. However, market inversions frequently occur when the spreads are observed across crop years near the end of the crop year. The regressions of spreads on the logarithm of U.S. quarterly stocks show that there exists a positive relationship between the spread and the level of stocks, and further implies that when stocks are scarce, markets will be inverted. Simulations are conducted to determine whether a market inversion is a signal to sell the stocks. The results of the paired-difference tests reveal that as the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18962 |
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| Registros recuperados: 103 | |
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