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A Simulation Approach to Risk Assessment in Investment Analysis AgEcon
Cassidy, P.A.; Rodgers, J.L.; McCarthy, W.O..
A simulation technique is advanced as a means of determining the probability of achieving various possible financial outcomes when assessing alternative investments. To this end a model is constructed and applied to a proposed investment in pasture improvement. Results are contrasted with a deterministic budget approach. The model uses triangular distributions to derive probabilistic estimates for the stochastic events considered. Possible fields of application of interest to agricultural economists are discussed.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1970 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9614
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Sensitivity of Plant Location Solutions to Changes in Raw Product Supplies AgEcon
McCarthy, W.O.; Ferguson, D.C.; Cassidy, P.A..
A method is outlined to test the stability of a plant location solution to changes in regional production. Supplies are generated within a probabilistic framework and used as input data for the usual otherwise static model. This approach also yields additional information on the probability of actual plant throughput exceeding designed throughput. Such types of information further assist policy decisions.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 1971 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9579
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AN APPLICATION OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS TO BEEF SLAUGHTER PLANT LOCATION AND SIZE, QUEENSLAND AgEcon
Cassidy, P.A.; McCarthy, W.O.; Toft, H.I..
The objective of this study is to define in the cost minimizing sense the optimum size and location for beef slaughter plants in the Eastern Central Queensland region. The plant location model used for this purpose is a modified transhipment formulation. It is applied to both a long run unlimited capacity case and a short run limited capacity case. The analysis indicates that for both cases production-area oriented slaughter minimizes costs. Sensitivity testing of the stability of the solution is outlined.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization.
Ano: 1970 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22816
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Spatial Equilibrium Analysis, Social Welfare and Rural Policy: The Case of the Wool Marketing Innovations and Reforms AgEcon
Cassidy, P.A.; Kilminster, J.C..
Radical wool marketing changes are mooted by the Australian Wool Corporation. While these intentions include wide ranging increases in market power for this supreme marketing authority, the overall proposals in their entirety, are argued as necessary to operationalize newly available wool selling and handling innovations. Supporting empirical evidence on the gains from adopting these innovations relies on spatial equilibrium models not fully in accord with the economic theory on which they are based. This paper sets out the shortcomings of these back-up studies. Based on a reconsideration of the theoretical premises, counter policy measures are advanced for consideration.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 1974 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7298
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