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Ridier, Aude; Chaib, Karim; Roussy, Caroline. |
In the paper we investigate the role played by both production and market risks on farmer’s decision to adopt long rotations (over 2 years), considered as innovative cropping systems. We build a multiperiod dynamic farm model (run under GAMS) that arbitrates each year between traditional and innovative rotations. With discrete stochastic programming, the production risk is accounted as an intra-year risk; yearly farming operations are declined according to a decision tree where probabilities are assigned. Subjective yield and cost distributions linked to this decision tree are elicited among a sample of 13 farmers that are experiencing this innovation in South-western France. The price risk is randomly distributed with a given market trend. The crop... |
Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Innovative cropping systems; Dynamic model; Crop rotation decision; Risk; Subjective probabilities; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; D0; Q12; Q55. |
Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122440 |
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