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AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH TO MODELING DROUGHT AgEcon
Chamberlain, P.J..
This paper illustrates an alternative approach to estimating the occurrence of drought. The empirical Bayes methodology was developed because of deficiencies in time-series and regression analysis with respect to prediction of drought. This manuscript is comprised of (a) a discussion of "classical" and Bayes estimators of probability density (or mass) functions, (b) a description of the model, and (c) a comparison of the performances of the empirical Bayes and two classical estimators in predicting the elapsed time until drought. The Bayes value (incorporating both a priori and data information) was found to be superior to the traditional estimates.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1988 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32150
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