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| Chen, Xuan; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| Our study focuses on modeling southern pine beetle (SPB) outbreaks in the southern area. The approach is to evaluate SPB outbreak frequency in a spatio-temporal framework. A block bootstrapping method with zero-inflated estimation has been proposed to construct a statistical model accounting for explanatory variables while adjusting for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Although the bootstrap (Efron 1979) method can handle independent observations well, the strong autocorrelation of SPB outbreaks brings about a major challenge. Motivated by bootstrapping overlapping blocks method in autoregressive time series scenario (Kunsch 1989) and block bootstrapping method of dependent data from a spatial map (Hall 1985), we have developed a method to bootstrap... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Southern Pinebeetle; Block Bootstrapping; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103668 |
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| Chen, Xuan; Goodwin, Barry K.. |
| In the US forestry industry, wildfire has always been one of the leading causes of damage. This topic is of growing interest as wildfire has caused huge losses for landowners, residents and governments in recent years. While individual wildfire behavior is well studied (e.g. Butry 2009; Holmes 2010), a lot of new literature on broadscale wildfire risks (e.g. by county) is emerging (e.g. Butry et al. 2001; Prestemon et al. 2002). The papers of the latter category have provided useful suggestions for government wildfire management and policies. Although wildfire insurance for real estate owners is popular, the possibility to develop a forestry production insurance scheme accounting for wildfire risks has not yet been investigated. The purpose of our paper is... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Wildfires; Forestry; Weather; Socio-economic; Spatio-Temporal autocorrelation; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103628 |
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