| Abstract HIV-1 mother-to-child transmission (HIV-1 MTCT), is an important cause of children mortality worldwide. Brazil has been traditionally praised by its HIV/Aids program, which provides free-of-charge care for people living with HIV-1. Using public epidemiology and demographic databases, we aimed at modeling HIV-1 MTCT prevalence in Brazil through the years (1994-2016) and elaborate a statistical model for forecasting, contributing to HIV-1 epidemiologic surveillance and healthcare decision-making. We downloaded sets of live births and mothers' data alongside HIV-1 cases notification in children one year old or less. Through time series modeling, we estimated prevalence along the years in Brazil, and observed a remarkable decrease of HIV-1 MTCT... |
