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AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE SADC MAIZE SECTOR AgEcon
Cutts, Michela; Hassan, Rashid M..
In almost all of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) countries maize is cropped on a commercial basis except in Mauritius and Seychelles. Maize meal is the most important food staple in Southern and Eastern Africa. This is one of the main reason many governments in the region implement various policies to protect the maize sector. With adoption of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) in the late 1990s, there has been a wave of market liberalization in the region. Maize production and marketing have seen major reforms with the URAA, market liberalization, and the Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs). Private sector participation in the supply of maize inputs (improved seed and fertilizer) and grain marketing has steadily...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19075
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SAFEX maize price volatility scrutinised AgEcon
Geyser, Mariette; Cutts, Michela.
Commodity prices in general are known to have a high volatility. This is in fact what attracts speculators. The South African futures exchange (SAFEX) is not immune to this volatility. Volatility increases the risk of paying higher prices for a specific commodity, and it also makes the use of derivative instruments to hedge against price risk more expensive. Given the importance of South Africa as a regional supplier of maize and price discovery mechanism, investigations into the volatility of the maize price are not only important, but also indispensable if all parties involved are to manage this risk. The question therefore is whether the SAFEX maize price volatility can be explained by using fundamental factors or whether this volatility is...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Derivative; Price volatility; Call option; Hedging; Food risk; SAFEX; CBOT; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8009
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MODELLING LONG-TERM COMMODITIES: THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN WINE INDUSTRY WITHIN A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK AgEcon
Cutts, Michela; Reynolds, Sanri; Meyer, Ferdinand H.; Vink, Nick.
Econometric demand and supply models of agricultural commodities and crops have been around for a long time with extensive research and adaptations being made in the grain and livestock sectors. This much attention has, however, not been afforded to long term commodities. This paper presents a partial equilibrium framework for modelling long term commodities using the South African wine industry as an example. The model structure and important assumptions are presented, after which the usefulness of the model is tested in the form of baseline projections and the analysis of a typical “what if” question. The wine model presented in this paper is housed and maintained in the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) at the Department of Agriculture,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Wine market; South Africa; Partial equilibrium model; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37324
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