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| Registros recuperados: 39 | |
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| Taylor, Mykel R.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Kastens, Terry L.. |
| This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis, using current market information for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Though generally not statistically superior, an historical one-year average was optimal for corn, milo, and soybean harvest and post-harvest basis forecasts. A one-year average was also best for wheat post-harvest basis forecasts, whereas a five-year average was the best method for forecasting wheat harvest basis. Incorporating current market information, defined as basis deviation from historical average, improved the accuracy of post-harvest basis forecasts. A naive forecast incorporating current information was often the most accurate for post-harvest basis forecasts. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Basis forecast; Crop basis; Current information; Naive forecast; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8625 |
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| Schroeder, Ted C.; Parcell, Joseph L.; Kastens, Terry L.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.. |
| Extension marketing economists commit substantial resources to outlook and market analysis. Producers demand this information and use it to make production and marketing decisions. This study analyzes responses to a marketing survey of producers and extension marketing economists to discern similarities and differences in their perceptions regarding market timing, futures market efficiency, and risk management. Producer and extension perceptions are consistent with regard to several marketing issues, although they are not always consistent with published research results. Both producers and extension economists disagree that producers will receive a lower average price by forwarding contracting, and many do not believe hedging reduces risk and lowers... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31181 |
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| Tonsor, Glynn T.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Mintert, James R.. |
| Successful risk management strategies for agribusiness firms based on futures and options contracts are contingent on their ability to accurately forecast basis. This research addresses three primary questions as they relate to basis forecasting accuracy: (a) What is the impact of adopting a time-to-expiration approach, as compared to the more common calendar-date approach? (b) What is the optimal number of years to include in calculations when forecasting livestock basis using historical averages? and (c) What is the effect of incorporating current basis information into a historical-average-based forecast? Results indicate that use of the time-to-expiration approach has little impact on forecast accuracy compared to using a simple calendar approach, but... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Basis; Basis forecasts; Cattle prices; Current information; Hedging; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31115 |
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| Nivens, Heather D.; Kastens, Terry L.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.. |
| In production agriculture, good management is demonstrated by profits that are persistenly greater than those of similar neighboring farms. This research examined the effects of management practices on risk-adjusted profit per acre for Kansas farms over 1990-1999. The management practices were price, cost, yield, planting intensity, and technology adoption (less-tillage). Cost management, planting intensity, and technology adoption had the greatest effect on profit per acre, and cash price management was found to have the smallest impact. If producers wish to have continuously high profits, their efforts are best spent in management practices over which they have the most control. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm management; Marketing; Risk; Technology adoption; Farm Management; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15507 |
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| Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Schroeder, Ted C.; Simms, Danny D.; Bolze, Ronald P., Jr.; Geske, Jeremy. |
| Bulls are an important investment for commercial beef cattle producers since, over time, bulls introduce most of the new genetic attributes into typical beef cow herds. Therefore, heritable bull traits determine bull prices. Bulls possess a large number of traits to consider in pricing. In recent years, new measures of both qualities have been introduced in the form of expected progeny differences (EPDs). This study estimates market values associated with specific bull attributes, recently introduced EPDs, and bull sale marketing efforts. Important bull price determinants include bull color, polled, conformation, muscling, disposition, age, birth weight, weaning weight, milk EPD, birth and weaning weight EPDs, sale location, order bull was sold, whether... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31030 |
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| Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.. |
| A formula (the "K-State formula") for deriving the price of segregated early weaned (SEW) pigs using corn, soybean meal, and market hog prices was estimated based on equating return on investment for the different phases of swine production farrow, nursery, and finish. USDA reported SEW pig prices were compared with prices derived from the K-State formula and several other common formulas. Based on root mean squared error and mean absolute error accuracy measures, the K-State formula did a better job of predicting spot-market prices than the other formulas. In terms of the K-State formula accurately predicting spot market prices, producers appear to form price expectations based on futures plus expected basis more so than simply futures prices or... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36145 |
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| Taylor, Mykel R.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Kastens, Terry L.; Douthit, Megan; Marsh, Thomas L.. |
| This study estimates the price determinants of show quality quarter horses sold at auction. Several characteristics including genetic and physical traits, quality of pedigree, and performance record of the horse, as well as the horse's offspring, were found to significantly impact selling price. Sale order positively affected price and appears to be driven by buyers rather than intentional ordering of the horses. A common practice at horse auctions is for the seller to reject the final bid offered and buy back the horse. Model-predicted prices for these buy-back horses indicate they are not undervalued by the final bids, based on their characteristics. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Auction; Equine; Hedonic pricing; Quarter horses; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8631 |
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| Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Dean, Erik; Parcell, Joseph L.. |
| Agricultural producers and input suppliers must regularly make decisions based on forecasts; however, most publicly available forecasts are for outputs. Research has shown the importance of being a low-cost operator. Thus, focusing on inputs may be beneficial. The objective of this research was to estimate models based on futures markets to forecast diesel fuel prices. Results suggest diesel fuel prices forecasted using the crude oil or heating oil futures market are reasonably accurate, and that this approach is superior to using a historical average. Based on out-of-sample price predictions, producers could profitably use crude oil futures-based models to make diesel fuel purchasing decisions. While the gains from following a model-based decision rule... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Crude oil; Diesel fuel; Forecasts; Forward contracting; Heating oil; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14664 |
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| Parcell, Joseph L.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Patterson, David J.; Randle, Richard. |
| This study used hedonic modeling to assess the marginal implicit value of bred heifer characteristics and of carcass characteristic expected progeny differences of bred heifer calves. Using data for 692 pens of Show-Me Replacement Heifers Inc. heifers marketed over the 2001 through 2004 period, we find heavier heifers are priced higher than lighter heifers, artificially inseminated heifer pens were premium priced, Angus animals received a premium, pens that are expected to calve at optimal period of the year and within a 30-day window received premiums, calf performance EPD birth weight was positive, only marbling carcass characteristic EPD was positive and significant, buyers prefer larger lots to smaller lots, buyers pay the highest price for lots sold... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19041 |
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| Parcell, Joseph L.; Kastens, Terry L.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Schroeder, Ted C.. |
| This study reviews articles using regression analysis published in the Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from 1994 to 1998 to determine agricultural economists' effectiveness in reporting and conveying research procedures and results. Based on the authors' experience of surveying articles for this study, several suggestions for reporting of results and how to better separate statistical from economic significance are offered. First, clearly define the dependent variable- preferably in the results table as well as within the text. Second, report parameter estimates in an interpretable form either in the results table or in a subsequent table. Third, report summary statistics. Fourth, report degrees of freedom conspicuously in the results table.... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31306 |
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| Taylor, Mykel R.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Kastens, Terry L.. |
| Being able to accurately predict basis is critical for making marketing and management decisions. Basis forecasts can be used along with futures prices to provide cash price projections. Additionally, basis forecasts are needed to evaluate hedging opportunities. Many studies have examined factors affecting basis but few have explicitly examined the ability to forecast basis. Studies have shown basis forecasts based on simple historical averages compare favorably with more complex forecasting models. However, these studies typically have considered only a 3-year historical average for forecasting basis. This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Across most of the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19022 |
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| May, Gary J.; Jones, Rodney D.; Langemeier, Michael R.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.. |
| The terms of grazing lease contracts potentially influence the tenants incentive to preserve the vegetation resource. Annual stocking rate decisions dictate the degree of overgrazing, which can be cumulative over long periods of time. The objective of this study is to identify the impact the tenants planning horizon and cost structure specified in the lease contract has on his/her profit-maximizing stocking rate. A multi-period nonlinear programming model was developed to identify economically optimal stocking rates each year over a 24-year period. The model was solved under 1-, 4-, 8-, and 12-year leases on a per acre and per head basis. The relative importance of each lease alternative and input variable on the tenants optimal stocking rate was... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16632 |
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| Registros recuperados: 39 | |
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