|
|
| Lacroix, Denis; Laurent, Louis; De Menthière, Nicolas; Schmitt, Bertrand; Béthinger, Audrey; David, Bernard; Didier, Christophe; Parent Du Châtelet, Jacques. |
| Scientific programming in environmental science often relies on short-term (3 to 5 years) trend-based projections for contextual elements like the demography or the economy to construct or justify its choice of priorities. However, this approach does not take into account numerous factors of change or disruption over a longer term (10 to 20, or even 50 years), although a decade or two are needed to effectively deal with the stakes of research. These stakes become more acute over the long term, as consequences of predicted changes (e. g. climate) or other factors such as pollution, biodiversity erosion, reduction of ecosystemic services.... This complex question justifies turning to a foresight approach. Because it enables tipping points to be envisaged for... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Research programming; Foresight; Scenarios; Environment; 2100. |
| Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00491/60236/63980.pdf |
| |
