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Combinatorial optimisation of a large, constrained simulation model: an application of compressed annealing AgEcon
Doole, Graeme J.; Pannell, David J..
Simulation models are valuable tools in the analysis of complex, highly constrained economic systems unsuitable for solution by mathematical programming. However, model size may hamper the efforts of practitioners to efficiently identify the most valuable configurations. This paper investigates the efficacy of a new metaheuristic procedure, compressed annealing, for the solution of large, constrained systems. This algorithm is used to investigate the value of incorporating a sown annual pasture, French serradella (Ornithopus sativa Brot. cv. Cadiz), between extended cropping sequences in the central wheat belt of Western Australia. Compressed annealing is shown to be a reliable means of considering constraints in complex optimisation problems in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Combinatorial optimisation; Crop rotation; Simulated annealing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C63; Q15.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10438
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The relationship between farm profit and nitrogen exports on representative dairy farms in the Moe River catchment, Victoria AgEcon
Stott, Kerry; Doole, Graeme J.; Vigiak, Olga; Kumaran, Thabo; Roberts, Anna M..
Ambitious nutrient reduction targets have been set for the Gippsland Lakes, Victoria but at what cost to productive agriculture? An interdisciplinary approach is addressing this question for the Moe River catchment, a dairy-dominated catchment that is a major source of pollutants to the Gippsland Lakes. Off-farm nitrogen exports are being estimated by biophysical modellers, and economists are quantifying the impact of farming systems and agricultural practices on farm profitability. This information is assembled to form the interim profit-pollution frontier for nitrogen reported in this paper, and to calculate abatement costs. Phosphorus and sediment exports will be considered in future work. This information is intended for use in a landscape-optimisation...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Nutrient management; Profit-pollution frontiers; Abatement costs.; Farm Management.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124454
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Economic analysis of integrated weed management strategies for annual barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli complex) in Philippine rice farming systems AgEcon
Beltran, Jesusa C.; Pannell, David J.; Doole, Graeme J.; White, Benedict.
This paper describes a dynamic simulation model that has been developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of integrated weed management programmes for the control of annual barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli complex) in Philippine rice farming systems. The main outputs of the model include weed seed and plant densities and seasonal and annualised profit over the simulated planning horizon. Model output emphasises the substantial economic benefits associated with effective long-term weed management strategies. In addition, a mixture of chemical and non-chemical treatments provides good weed control in rice crops, and maximises long-term profit for systems where the main weed is annual barnyardgrass. However, the performance of this strategy is...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Barnyardgrass; Bioeconomic model; Integrated weed management; Rice farming systems.; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124236
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The value of refugia in managing anthelmintic resistance: a modelling approach AgEcon
Pech, Caris L.; Doole, Graeme J.; Pluske, Johanna M..
The increasing prevalence of anthelmintic (drench) resistance in gastrointestinal parasite populations is decreasing the profitability of the sheep industry in Western Australia (WA). A strategy, referred to as refugia management, has the potential to delay the development of resistant parasites by not exposing a proportion of the worm population to chemical control. A dynamic bioeconomic model is used to assess the economic value of refugia for management of the worm species Teladorsagia circumcincta and Macrocyclic Lactone drenches in Western Australian sheep flocks. A low rate of refugia (2 per cent) is most profitable under standard circumstances because it slows the development of resistance, but also reduces the cost accruing to production losses...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Anthelmintic resistance; Bioeconomic model; Gastrointestinal parasites; Refugia; Sheep; Teladorsagia circumcincta..
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48166
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Agricultural land management strategies to reduce phosphorus loads in the Gippsland Lakes, Australia AgEcon
Roberts, Anna M.; Pannell, David J.; Doole, Graeme J.; Vigiak, Olga.
A target to reduce phosphorus flows into the Gippsland Lakes in south-eastern Australia by 40 per cent to improve water quality has previously been established by stakeholders. An integrated analysis at the catchment scale is undertaken to assess the agricultural land management changes required to achieve this target, and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these changes. It appears technically feasible to achieve a 40 per cent reduction in P load entering the lakes, but the least-costly way of doing so would require around A$1 billion over 20 years, a dramatic increase in the current levels of funding provided for management. On the other hand, a 20 per cent P reduction could be achieved at much lower cost: around $80 million over 20 years and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Benefit: cost analysis; Dairy; Diffuse source; Trade-offs; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q15; Q25; Q53; Q57.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102454
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RIMPhil: a bioeconomic model for integrated weed management of annual barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli) in Philippine rice farming systems AgEcon
Beltran, Jesusa C.; Pannell, David J.; Doole, Graeme J.; White, Benedict.
This paper describes a complex, dynamic simulation model that has been developed for the analysis of integrated weed management programmes for the control of annual barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli) in rice farming systems in the Philippines. Users of the model may simulate any feasible combination of 49 weed treatments options across wet and dry cropping seasons over 5, 10, 15, and 20 year periods, subject to a predetermined sequence of planting methods. The main outputs of the model include weed seed and plant densities and seasonal and annualised profit over the simulated planning horizon. Model output emphasises the substantial economic benefits associated with effective long-term weed management strategies. In addition, the most-profitable weed...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Barnyardgrass; Bioeconomic model; Integrated weed management; Rice farming systems.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104637
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Optimal management of the New Zealand longfin eel (Anguilla dieffenbachii) AgEcon
Doole, Graeme J..
Annual recruitment of the NewZealand longfin eel (Anguilla dieffenbachii) hasdecreased by 75 per cent since significant levels of commercial fishing began in the early 1970s. This motivates application of a multiple-cohort bioeconomic model to a New Zealand longfin eel fishery to investigate its optimal management and ascertain the suitability of existing regulatory policy. The use of historical harvest to calculate total allowable catch is asserted to be unsustainable based on recovery dynamics. In addition, individual transferable quota systems are argued to be fundamentally flawed for the protection of longfin fisheries because of high-grading, low-surplus production and a current lack of effective stock-assessment procedures. Area closure and the...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Anguilla dieffenbachii; Area closure; Fishery management; Longfin eel; Territorial user rights; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118586
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A Practical Algorithm for Multiple-Phase Control Systems in Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics AgEcon
Doole, Graeme J..
Many important problems in agricultural and natural resource economics concern an intertemporal choice between alternate dynamic systems. This significance has motivated a theoretical literature generalizing the necessary conditions of Optimal Control Theory to multiple-phase problems. However, gaining detailed insight into their practical management is difficult because general numerical solution methods are not available. This paper resolves this deficiency through the development of a flexible and efficient computational algorithm based on a set of necessary conditions derived for finite-time, multiple-phase systems. Its effectiveness is demonstrated in an application to a nontrivial crop rotation problem.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop management; Multiple-phase systems; Optimal control; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50082
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Optimal management of annual ryegrass ( Lolium rigidum Gaud.) in phase rotations in the Western Australian Wheatbelt AgEcon
Doole, Graeme J..
Lucerne ( Medicago sativa L.) helps to prevent soil salinisation in the Western Australian Wheatbelt by reducing recharge to saline water tables. There is broad consensus, though, that it is not sufficiently profitable to motivate producers to plant it at the intensity at which considerable off-site benefits would be conferred. This paper employs a multiple-phase optimal control model to explore the value of this perennial pasture for the management of herbicide-resistant annual ryegrass ( Lolium rigidum Gaud.) in a crop–pasture rotation, given the difficulty of observing this value in practice. The availability of selective herbicides for efficient weed control is found to determine whether or not it is profitable to adopt lucerne pasture under optimal...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Annual ryegrass; Herbicide resistance; Multiple-phase optimal control; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118547
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Role and value of including lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) phases in crop rotations for the management of herbicide-resistant Lolium rigidum in Western Australia AgEcon
Doole, Graeme J.; Pannell, David J..
Use of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) pastures in crop rotations has been proposed as a method to enhance weed management options for growers facing herbicide resistance in Western Australia. An existing model for analysing herbicide resistance in the important crop weed annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum Gaud.) is consequently extended to include lucerne, used for grazing by a sheep enterprise. Seven rotational options are analysed, including various combinations of lucerne, annual pastures, and crops. Lucerne provides additional weed management benefits across the rotation, but in the region studied these benefits are only sufficient to make lucerne rotations the most profitable option in situations where ryegrass is resistant to multiple herbicide groups,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9233
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Nonpoint pollution policy evaluation under ambiguity AgEcon
Doole, Graeme J.; Pannell, David J..
Environmental policy evaluation is characterised by a paucity of information. Bounded sets may be more appropriate for representing this ambiguity than traditional probability distributions. A formal calibration method for regional policy models, positive mathematical programming, is thus extended to incorporate parameter definition using bounded sets through the novel method of robust non-linear programming. The resulting procedure identifies strong bounds on the range of abatement costs accruing to environmental policy and improves the relevance and value of modelling studies through not limiting conclusions to realisations of specific point estimates or probability distributions. Moreover, it may easily be solved using standard mathematical-programming...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Interval analysis; Nonpoint pollution; Robust optimisation..
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48036
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A primer on implementing compressed simulated annealing for the optimisation of a constrained simulation model in Microsoft Excel AgEcon
Doole, Graeme J..
This short paper provides a simple introduction on how a simulation model implemented in Microsoft Excel® can be optimised using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) programming and the compressed simulated annealing algorithm (Ohlmann et al., 2004; Ohlmann and Thomas, 2007). The standard simulated annealing procedure enters as a special case. Practical advice for determining the parameters that guide the stochastic search process in an annealing algorithm is also given.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7420
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Economic impacts of high labour cost and herbicide resistance for the management of annual barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli) in rice production in the Philippines AgEcon
Beltran, Jesusa C.; Pannell, David J.; Doole, Graeme J..
Implications of increasing labour cost and development of herbicide resistance for profitable weed management in Philippine rice farming systems are investigated. The study employs RIMPhil (Resistance and Integrated Management in the Philippines), a bioeconomic simulation model developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of integrated weed management programmes for the control of annual barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli) in rice crops. Results indicate that herbicide application will become increasingly economically attractive, relative to manual weeding, as labour cost increases. This is important since urban migration in the Philippines continues to increase the scarcity of rural labour. Results also show that the onset of herbicide resistance...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Barnyardgrass; Bioeconomic model; Herbicide resistance; Integrated weed management; Rice production; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108770
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Factors that affect the use of herbicides in Philippine rice farming systems AgEcon
Beltran, Jesusa C.; Pannell, David J.; Doole, Graeme J.; White, Benedict.
This study involves the application of a random-effects double-hurdle model to survey data to identify the farm-level factors affecting the adoption and intensity of herbicide use in rice production in the Philippines. Results broadly indicate apparent differences in the degree to which important explanatory variables affect the intensity and adoption decisions. The age of the farmer, household size, and irrigation are the significant predictors influencing the decision of farmers to use herbicides, while economic variables such as the price of herbicides, total income of farmers, and the use of bank loans or credit are the highly significant factors determining the intensity of herbicide use. Significant determinants of both the adoption and intensity...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Herbicide use; Double-hurdle model; Adoption; Rice farming system.; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108769
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Optimal Dynamic Management of Agricultural Land-Uses: An Application of Regime Switching AgEcon
Doole, Graeme J.; Hertzler, Greg.
The capacity of global agricultural production to meet increased demand for food from population growth and wealth accumulation is threatened by extensive land degradation. Nonetheless, previous research has focused primarily on the dynamic implications of input management and ignored land-use choice. This paper extends this theory through an examination of the intertemporal management of agricultural land through the use of non-crop inputs, such as fertilizer, and land uses that either degrade or restore productivity. The need to consider the relative total asset value of alternative crops over time is demonstrated. Moreover, higher output prices for degrading crops are shown to increase their relative value, motivating the later adoption of substitutes....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop sequences; Land degradation; Regime switching; International Development; Production Economics; Q15; Q24.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100643
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