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| Dyer, George A.; Taylor, J. Edward. |
| Assessing the human and environmental impacts of biofuels requires unraveling the connection between international trade, on one hand, and local land-use and social change, on the other, while accounting for cross-scalar linkages between and within social and environmental systems. We propose a disaggregated approach to model how macro shocks shape rural households’ decisions, and how these decisions integrate onto aggregate supply and land use patterns. The approach, built on an agent-based model of rural Mexico, is used to explore the impacts of ethanol-driven US corn price increases. Our estimate of a 5.7% expansion in corn area by 2008 and wide variation across regions corresponds fairly well with ex post reports. Estimates from alternative models... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91804 |
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| Taylor, J. Edward; Yunez-Naude, Antonio; Paredes, Fernando Barceinas; Dyer, George A.. |
| This paper has three main objectives. The first is to review major changes in Mexico's agricultural policies in the context of trade liberalization. The second is to explore econometrically the impact of these policy changes on key variables of interest, including prices, trade, production and rural out-migration. The third is to illustrate the use of disaggregated policy modeling techniques to explore the sometimes paradoxical impacts of recent policy changes on Mexico's rural economies. After reviewing trends in the evolution of the rural economy of Mexico, including employment, land property rights and poverty, we suggest hypotheses to explain why some of the expected effects of NAFTA and agricultural reforms have not occurred. The paper ends with... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16731 |
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