SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Liang, Jing; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Jensen, Helen H.; Miller, Gay Y..

Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Asia, Europe, and Africa have caused severe impacts on the broiler sector through production losses, trade restrictions and negative shocks to demand. This study develops a multimarket econometric model that is the basis of simulations to assess the spread and market implications of a potential HPAI outbreak in U.S. broiler industry. It takes into account market power that might exist within the livestock and meat sectors and endogenizes the optimal production condition on the model system. The results imply that the HPAI shocks affect prices at different marketing levels unequally and change the price margins along the supply chain with the existence of market power. The change in the price...

The Impact of the European Enlargement and Common Agricultural Policy Reforms on Agricultural Markets: Much Ado about Nothing?

Palavras-chave: Animal disease; Broilers; HPAI; Market power; Meat market price margins; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61496

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fuller, Frank H.; Matthey, Holger; Tokgoz, Simla; Wailes, Eric J..

Following a historical agreement on the EU enlargement, 10 new member states (NMS) acceded to the European Union on May 1, 2004. Although the European Union has expanded its membership in the past, this enlargement is unique in terms of its scope and diversity of the countries, area, and population involved. Thus, the effects of the EU enlargement on current and future member countries and on world commodity markets require careful consideration as the European Union is a major player in these markets. We analyze the effects of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform and enlargement on the EU-15, the NMS, and world agricultural markets. We compare three 10-year comprehensive agricultural outlook scenarios. In a "pre-enlargement" scenario, all...

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

Palavras-chave: CAP reform; Common Agricultural Policy; EU enlargement; European agriculture; New Member States; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18393

Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome.

We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q18; Q38.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53093

Westernization of the Asian Diet: The Case of Rising Wheat Consumption in Indonesia

Fabiosa, Jacinto F..

With sustained income growth and fast urbanization, Indonesia will see a major shift in the growth of grain consumption from rice to wheat products. New demand estimates from consumption survey data give a relatively high income elasticity of demand for wheat-based products, in the range of 0.44 to 0.84, with 26% to 34% of this response coming from the impact of income on the probability of consumption for non-consuming households and the remaining impact coming from the response on the level of consumption for households currently consuming wheat products. Urban location of households also contributes an increase of 0.11% to 0.13% to consumption. In contrast, elasticities in rice show a negative impact of income and urbanization on the probability of...

OUTPUT SUPPLY AND INPUT DEMAND SYSTEM OF COMMERCIAL AND BACKYARD POULTRY PRODUCERS IN INDONESIA

Palavras-chave: Double-hurdle demand; Trade; Westernization of diet; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18335

Yan, Dong; Jensen, Helen H.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F..

Estimated Indonesian backyard and commercial broiler output supply and input demands from normalized quadratic function satisfy all theoretical properties (homogeneity, reciprocity, adding-up, symmetry, curvature). Elasticities have correct signs and are significant. Very inelastic supply explains strong border protection and casts doubt on long-term sustainability of import substitution policy.

Farmer Participation, the Dairy Industry, and the Rise of Dairy Production in China

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20266

Huang, Jikun; Wu, Yunhua; Yang, Zhijian; Rozelle, Scott; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Dong, Fengxia.

With rapid income growth, dairy production and consumption in China have increased significantly. This emergence of the dairy sector will provide opportunities for farmers to participate in a high-value, potentially more lucrative enterprise. The overall goal of this paper is to analyze the major determinants of farmers’ participation in dairy production. Our main question is whether or not the pace of the emergence of the dairy processing industry has affected the ability of farmers to participate in dairy production and whether or not it has limited the expansion of their herd size. Based on household, village and processor surveys conducted in the Greater Beijing region, our analysis shows that the location of dairy processing firms is one of the key...

Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change

Palavras-chave: China; Dairy processing; Dairy production..

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42741

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla.

We analyze the sensitivity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change to modifications in assumptions concerning crop area, yield, and deforestation. For this purpose, we run a modified version of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Agricultural Outlook Model, which was used previously to assess the impacts of energy price increases and biofuel policy changes on land conversion. To calculate the GHG implications of agricultural activity, we use GreenAgSiM, a model developed to evaluate emissions from land conversion and agricultural production. Both models are applied to scenarios that lead to higher US ethanol production. The results are contrasted with the findings of Searchinger et al., and we explain the role of model...

Impact of the South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement on the U.S. Livestock Sector

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; Crop yield; Greenhouse gas emissions; Indirect land-use change.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51945

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Dong, Fengxia.

The recently signed Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) grants the U.S. livestock industry with preferential access to South Korea's import market. This study evaluates the likely impacts of the KORUS FTA on the U.S. livestock sector. Using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute's modeling system, we find that livestock prices increase by 0.5% to 3.8% under the agreement. And together with an expansion by 381 to 883 million pounds in meat exports, the value of U.S. exports increase by close to U.S.$2 billion, or a 15.2% increase. Because of differential baseline starting market shares and differential rates and staging specifications, the beef sector results are primarily driven by trade diversion impacts, while a combination of...

Challenges in Modeling the Effects of Trade Agreements on the Agricultural Sector

Palavras-chave: Dairy; Free trade agreement; Livestock; Poultry; Trade creation and diversion.; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7701

Westhoff, Patrick C.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Meyers, William H..

Major issues and challenges encountered in modeling and analyzing agricultural and trade policy reforms are reviewed. We focus on modeling approach and pay special attention to the type and scope of models, calibration of a realistic baseline scenario, representation of the reform agreement, use of extramodel information, choice of metrics to measure reform impacts, and emerging issues in policy modeling. Existing solutions and unresolved issues are examined. We stress the complementarity of various modeling approaches in assessing policy reforms and the importance of helping users understand the limitations of the chosen approach.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Economic modeling; Trade agreements; Q17; Q18; F13.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43385

Egypt’s Household Expenditure Pattern: Does It Alleviate a Food Crisis?

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Soliman, Ibrahim.

We estimated a system of Engel functions for two survey periods, 1999/2000 and 2004/2005, to quantify the impact of changes of income on household expenditure behavior and to investigate how expenditure responsiveness changes with income. We found that rural households have a higher expenditure share for food categories but a lower share for non-food categories compared to urban households. The expenditure share did not change so much between the two survey periods, with only a slight decline in the share of cereals-bread and the non-food category and an increase in the meat-fish-dairy category. All estimates have a good fit, and the total expenditure explanatory variable is significant in all equations. In general, households with lower incomes are...

World Trade Impacts of Foot and Mouth Disease in Taiwan

Palavras-chave: Engel function; Household consumption pattern; Income elasticity..

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42251

Fuller, Frank H.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Premakumar, V..

Usefulness of Incomplete Demand Model in Censored Demand System Estimation

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 1997

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18313

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Jensen, Helen H..

The popularity of AIDS may not easily extend to censored demand systems. We propose an incomplete demand system that has relatively few restrictions on the parameter space, but preserves its theoretical consistency and apply this model to Indonesian data that have significant proportion of censored observations.

A Review of Agricultural Policy Evolution, Agricultural Data Sources, and Food Supply and Demand Studies in Egypt

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21923

Soliman, Ibrahim; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Bassiony, Halah.

Over the years the control of the Government of Egypt on the agricultural sector has increasingly weakened with the progressive elimination of the input subsidy, area control, price control, procurement control, and the constraints in private sector participation in processing and trade. The only remaining major government involvement is the food subsidy in some wheat products, the “baladi” bread subsidy in particular. Policy analysis studies in Egypt have been made possible because the Government of Egypt collects and publishes significant amounts of agricultural data on a regular basis. Two of the most widely used data sets are the Household Budget Survey conducted and published by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, and the Food...

Global Biofuel Expansion and the Demand for Brazilian Land: Intensification versus Expansion

Palavras-chave: Agricultural data; Agricultural policy; Egypt; Elasticity; Supply and demand.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59510

Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F..

We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and to analyze the impact of biofuel expansion and policies on both Brazilian and world agriculture. We evaluate two scenarios in which we introduce a 25% exogenous increase in the global demand for ethanol and one scenario in which we increase global ethanol demand by 50%. We then analyze the impact of these increases in terms of land-use change and commodity price changes particularly in Brazil. In the first...

Impacts of the Economic Reform Program on the Performance of the Egyptian Agricultural Sector

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Brazil; Land use; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103798

Soliman, Ibrahim; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Gaber Amer, Mohamed; Kandil, Siham.

From 1986 to 2007 Egypt’s agricultural policy transitioned from a tightly controlled to a more liberalized regime. This study examines the impact of this change on the performance of the wheat (imported grain) and rice (exported grain) sectors. In terms of profitability, we found that the cost of production increased substantially in both grains, driven primarily by the rise in land rent and labor wage. But the wheat and rice sectors’ profitability did not suffer significantly, as advances in new seed technologies and adoption of better farm practices including farm mechanization increased yield and compensated for the higher cost. Considering market efficiency, we found that over the study period the farmer’s share of the consumer’s expenditure...

A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH TO ASSESS ILUC RESULTS FROM GLOBAL MODELING EFFORTS

Palavras-chave: Agricultural liberalization; Area response elasticity; Market efficiency; Profitability.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93033

Witzke, Heinz Peter; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Gay, Stephan Hubertus; Golub, Alla A.; Havlik, Petr; Msangi, Siwa; Tokgoz, Simla; Searchinger, Timothy D..

Modeling the Effects of Pasture Expansion on Emissions from Land-Use Change

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91430

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti.

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/14/2010.