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Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes AgEcon
Femenia, Fabienne; Alexandre, Gohin.
The highly disputed effects of agricultural trade liberalisation are mostly simulated with static models. Our main objective in this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the static simulation results to the consistent modelling of dynamic behaviours and to the linked specification of price/return expectations. Focusing on a complete trade liberalisation scenario of arable crop markets by developed countries, we find that available static results are quite robust to dynamic specifications and to most expectation schemes. Endogenous market fluctuations due to expectation errors may appear following trade liberalisation. These fluctuations are nevertheless limited by the many feedback effects revealed by our general equilibrium framework.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Dynamics; Endogenous fluctuations; Expectation errors; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51665
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To Subsidize or Not to Subsidize Private Storage? Evaluation of the Effects of Private Storage Subsidies as an Instrument to Stabilize Agricultural Markets After CAP Reforms AgEcon
Femenia, Fabienne.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114360
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Estimating price elasticities of food trade functions: How relevant is the gravity approach? AgEcon
Femenia, Fabienne; Gohin, Alexandre.
The main objective of the paper is related to the long standing issue of the econometric estimation of price elasticity of food trade functions. We investigate the relevance of the prominent gravity approach. This approach is based on the assumptions of symmetric, monotone, homothetic, CES preferences. We test all these assumptions using European intra trade of cheese. In a general way, all assumptions made on preferences by the gravity approach are not supported by our data set. The bias induced on the estimated price elasticities is not univocal.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Elasticities; Trade; Generalized Maximum Entropy; Censored demand system; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7211
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The decoupling of farm programs: Revisiting the wealth effect AgEcon
Femenia, Fabienne; Gohin, Alexandre; Carpentier, Alain.
Recent reforms of agricultural policies in developed countries introduced direct payments to the detriment of traditional production enhancing instruments. Whereas these new instruments can influence production through several effects, current empirical studies do not show any significant impact on production; direct payments mainly increase land values. In this article, we revisit the evaluation of the coupling effects passing through the wealth of agricultural households. The initial wealth of these agents, while being mainly in form of land asset holding, is always assumed to be fixed. On the contrary we show theoretically and empirically that, once the impact of farm programs on initial wealth is properly accounted for, the measure of the coupling...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Decoupling; Wealth effect.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48107
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ON THE OPTIMAL IMPLEMENTATION OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORMS AgEcon
Femenia, Fabienne; Gohin, Alexandre.
Economic analyses of farm policies generally focus on the long run, steady state impacts while the transition dynamics are often overlooked. In this paper we develop a determinist dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis allowing agents to form imperfect versus pefect expectations. Using an illustrative CAP reform scenario, we simulate an abrupt versus a gradual implementation of this reform. Our results show that if economic agents are able to perfectly anticipate the impacts of the reform, then delaying its implementation is never optimal. On the other hand, if agents gradually learn from market developments, then we find some cases where a gradual implementation of this reform is welfare improving. Such gradual implementation allows minimizing...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dynamics; Transition; Farm Policies; Welfare; Agricultural and Food Policy; Political Economy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91285
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