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| Ford, Beth Pride; Musser, Wesley N.. |
| Previous studies of historical risk have used either nominal or real data to calculate risk measures for agricultural prices and income. However, the effects of using nominal and real data have not been evaluated. This study utilizes theoretical variance approximation relationships to examine variances from detrended real and nominal time series. The relationships between variances are derived for quarterly U.S. farm milk prices for 1960-72, 1973-80, and 1981-90. Contrary to common intuitive arguments, results indicate that variances of real time series can be larger than variances of nominal series. While definitive conclusions are not possible, several reasons for using nominal data in risk analysis are given. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Detrending; Indices; Nominal data; Risk measurement; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15259 |
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| Ford, Stephen A.; Ford, Beth Pride; Spreen, Thomas H.. |
| The use of alternative probability density functions to specify risk in farm programming models is explored and compared to a traditional specification using historical data. A method is described that compares risk efficient crop mixes using stochastic dominance techniques to examine impacts of different risk specifications on farm plans. Results indicate that a traditional method using historical farm data is as efficient for risk averse producers as two other methods of incorporating risk in farm programming models when evaluated using second degree stochastic dominance. Stochastic dominance with respect to a function further discriminates among the distributions, indicating that a density function based on the historic forecasting accuracy of the... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1995 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31458 |
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